Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Battleground Snow]

13 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

 

 

 

6 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Gfs op above the mean again 

Good Spot, by 180 the mean is -9. Look at that clustering!

You can see the big improvement visually compared to the 18z run here too

 

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Edited January 31, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Stu_London]

JFF - the gfs comes back with a stonking scandi/siberian high in deep fi. Struggles to influence a bit as GFS likes the atlantic solution

[feb1991blizzard]

Big improvement over last 2 GEFS suites, less convoluted near Greenland, cleaner with less shortwave phasing issues, usually a good sign for deeper cold advection.

[Daniel]

Gfs mean has a max of 1.6c on the 7th in London that's very good for an ensemble mean! 

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, Daniel said:

Gfs mean has a max of 1.6c on the 7th in London that's very good for an ensemble mean! 

a number of ice days in the mix too

[Battleground Snow]

Para at 180 is in line with the mean and snowy

 

[Stu_London]

jff again, as very deep FI, but the deep low in the atlantic doesnt really any progress but is able to put some mild swerlys over the uk for a few days. In reality, I think we all know that the block would probably be a bit more robust and exert more influence.

Post has more to do with demonstrating the inherent weakness of the GFS and its sometime atlantic bias rather than any meaningful prediction of what might actually happen

 

[Mr snowman 2018]

39 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Perhaps we could host a socially distanced ice fair between Dover and Calais and make peace with our dear  EU neighbours

 

All jokes aside this run would bring joy to the majority of the population of England finally!

We haven’t had anything decent in Lincolnshire!

[Stu_London]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Para at 180 is in line with the mean and snowy

 

How does the para compare to 18z para

Not quite as good I suspect

[mulzy]

It’s all about the UKMO this morning - the most important model when it comes to cold.  So important to have it on board!!

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

We haven’t had anything decent in Lincolnshire!

I reckon you would do ok in Market Rasen - not to far inland - and far enough north that you should be on the right side of any battleground

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

How does the para compare to 18z para

Not quite as good I suspect

Excellent v excellent I would say

[Stu_London]

Just now, mulzy said:

It’s all about the UKMO this morning - the most important model when it comes to cold.  So important to have it on board!!

I agree. Many a cold snap collapsed with the UKMO not being on board. That said ECM is just as important. Some harmonisation of the various outputs would be welcome in the next day or so, just so we have an idea of what's coming down the line (and can panic buy, accordingly)

[Stu_London]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Excellent v excellent I would say

Both good but some marked differences - sharper easterly on 18z

Hemispheric heights joined up on 18z but maybe better arctic high on the 0z

Certainly would kick the 0z out of bed for passing wind.

[feb1991blizzard]

Looking at individual members, there are a good few without the shortwave and a few more that do develop it but stays further away from harms way for longer, at least prolonging cold and giving more time to generate convection before any collapse of ridge. need eps on board though.

Looking a lot better for the E and SE at least anyway.

Edited January 31, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[Kentspur]

17 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Gfs mean has a max of 1.6c on the 7th in London that's very good for an ensemble mean! 

FWIW Icon 0z op seems to have been above the mean 2mtr temp ensembles virtually throughout although its not an outlier, also the dewpoints show room for Nicks fave style of "crunchy snowcover" if the precip is available as shown possible, with some of the dewpoint  ensembles here getting below minus 5c!! With the mean at a comfortable -2c also, and those very cold uppers its starting to look promising if by no means a cert

 

And yes Lincolnshire would likely get in on the act too Mr Snowman!

Edited January 31, 2021 by Kentspur

[Penrith Snow]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo is brilliant at 120, cold from the east is in by Thursday and low cleared through!

Edit : 144 added

Further edit, 850mb temps added. I'm BOOMING this run!

Wow those UKMO charts are straight out of the 1960’s with intense 1060mb Arctic High extending south, did we even have one of those in 2010?

havent seen GFS yet but ive banked the MetO already so I don’t care  

Andy

[Stu_London]

Just now, Penrith Snow said:

Wow those UKMO charts are straight out of the 1960’s with intense 1060mb Arctic High extending south, did we even have one of those in 2010?

havent seen GFS yet but ive banked the MetO already so I don’t care  

Andy

GFS is a bit meh - very short snowy cold spell in the south - then gets a bit too excited about a depression in the atlantic

[londonblizzard]

I count an impressive 19 members which breach the -10 850 mark at some point between the 6th and 8th feb for london. 
Pretty sure this is the highest yet, despite the mean being comparable to the last several runs.
 

[Penrith Snow]

The MetO 1060 Arctic High ridging 2000 miles south is such a thing of beauty it is now  my laptop screen saver, I just keep looking at it.

please can it just be right.

The MetO model is normally the last to join the party but this time it’s arrived early with a car full of booze and Swedish strippers   

Andy

[Mr snowman 2018]

Would love to see Lincolnshire get a decent snow event we have just had marginal stuff and a few dustings !

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, Penrith Snow said:

The MetO 1060 Arctic High ridging 2000 miles south is such a thing of beauty it is now  my laptop screen saver, I just keep looking at it.

please can it just be right.

The MetO model is normally the last to join the party but this time it’s arrived early with a car full of booze and Swedish strippers   

Andy

Thats exactly my sort of party!!

[Kentspur]

5 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Would love to see Lincolnshire get a decent snow event we have just had marginal stuff and a few dustings !

Thats still a lot more than other areas (including mine have had) absolutely zilch here! Hopefully we will see some nationwide events in the coming fortnight

[Radiating Dendrite]

Given that the UKMO usually plays the part of the Grinch in such Synoptic spells, having it so on board is a massive tick.

GFS is doing it's usual, underestimating the cold block and hopefully ECM will sneak in the back door whilst nobody is looking trying to maintain is decency (as it has done a few times this winter).

[Stu_London]

a five minute covering last Sunday and some wintryness in the cold rain between Christmas and now is the full extent of my severe winter weather - could do with something to brighten the landscape up - the sun has hasn't exactly been in plentiful supply. I might have to stay up for the ECM - despite not going to bed yet

Edited January 31, 2021 by Stu_London