Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Continental Climate]

Not a great icon to be fair a bit messy and the deep cold never really reaches our shores. Any snow will be marginal at low levels. Not a good start. 

[Battleground Snow]

Icon is very messy, but still manages to get to very cold by 180, but a lot of risks with this run.

 

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo is brilliant at 120, cold from the east is in by Thursday and low cleared through!

Edit : 144 added

Further edit, 850mb temps added. I'm BOOMING this run!

Edited January 31, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Daniel]

Brilliant UKMO this morning the beast is knocking

[Stu_London]

UKMO fantastic - very clean evolution and gets the cold in situ for all

Edited January 31, 2021 by Stu_London

[Battleground Snow]

GFS retains a bit of the energy around Iberia at 150, so a slower evolution, but it's going get there... It's like we have hit the nearer timeframe and the models have realised that low is just going to be squashed by the high pressure from the north.

[Stu_London]

Yes GFS is faffing around a bit with the cold - hope its not a drama

Similarities to UKMO and early stages of last night para with the clean evolution

[Stu_London]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS retains a bit of the energy around Iberia at 150, so a slower evolution, but it's going get there... It's like we have hit the nearer timeframe and the models have realised that low is just going to be squashed by the high pressure from the north.

That's an amazing hemispheric chart for the UK

[Continental Climate]

Yep ukmo the pick of the bunch so far.  GFS not as clean but loads better than the messy icon which just sort of loses it at 120. Hopefully a better ecm this morning can't see the ukmo being completely wrong about this at 120. I will say though still no beast within reliable time frames on any model....yet. 

 

 

[Stu_London]

GFS still struggling to get the cold in place 24 after UKMO.

UKMO looks a bit perfect to me - almost like it is missing some detail. 

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

GFS still struggling to get the cold in place 24 after UKMO.

UKMO looks a bit perfect to me - almost like it is missing some detail. 

GFS is alot different from the 18z run, but I think crewe and Feb will like it,. Look at the low heights over UK, snow machine.

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

GFS still struggling to get the cold in place 24 after UKMO.

UKMO looks a bit perfect to me - almost like it is missing some detail. 

UKMO is brilliant this morning best we’ve seen from it, you say that but this is just day 4 with easterlies nationwide the UKMO is usually very solid then the day 5 and particularly day 6 often shaky. 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Daniel*

[Kentspur]

6 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

GFS still struggling to get the cold in place 24 after UKMO.

UKMO looks a bit perfect to me - almost like it is missing some detail. 

Its certainly better than 18z for snow in the areas that haven't had any this winter similar to 12z in that regard and I prefer the 0z and 12z runs out of the 4 runs a day❄?

Edited January 31, 2021 by Kentspur

[Stu_London]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO is brilliant this morning best we’ve seen from it, you say that but this is just day 4 with easterlies nationwide the UKMO is usually very solid then the day 5 and particularly day 6 often shaky. 

I hope it is right at day 4 and 5 - would be terrific.  The cold makes it on the gfs eventually and the frontal snow feature for the south next Sunday is back but more a rain to snow events now as it starts off a bit marginal

Edited January 31, 2021 by Stu_London

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS is alot different from the 18z run, but I think crewe and Feb will like it,. Look at the low heights over UK, snow machine.

Much improved run- not perfect, but definitely improved

 

[Stu_London]

very snowy run for the south and east next Sunday into Monday

[Kentspur]

Perhaps we could host a socially distanced ice fair between Dover and Calais and make peace with our dear  EU neighbours

 

All jokes aside this run would bring joy to the majority of the population of England finally!

[Battleground Snow]

Gem at 162, looks okay, a slower evolution than the Ukmo, but I think it will be great again by 192 and maybe throw up a ridge to Greenland from the Atlantic.

 

[Stu_London]

Very brief, albeit, snowy cold snap for the south if you believe GFS  - maybe a reload later if it goes down last nights para route

[Continental Climate]

The ukmo really is excellent look at these 850s by 144. 

The action gets going actually by Thursday next week with very little marginality in the east especially. The fact that the ukmo is excellent by 96 gives me great hope. Please ecm back up your fellow euro model. Also look at the -20s into Eastern Europe if we can advect those west its Feb 91 time. 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Continental Climate

[Battleground Snow]

Up she goes! 

All of the runs are very different this morning, but all lead to some form of cold outlook for the UK.

Usually a 120 Ukmo chart we would have confidence in the outcome, but these are unusual times and we probably need to get this into to 72-96 period before celebrating

[Stu_London]

You would have to hope that the GFS is being too progressive around day 10-12 - even blows the surface cold away - edit way too far ahead to even worry about

Edited January 31, 2021 by Stu_London

[londonblizzard]

 

[Daniel]

Gfs op above the mean again 

[Stu_London]

Just now, Daniel said:

Gfs op above the mean again 

it was very slow to progress the cold south, particularly compared to the UKMO