Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Battleground Snow]

Don't worry the icon has got this... Low about to slide south east 

Well maybe.....

[stratty]

10 minutes ago, Trom said:

Slightly different phenomenon same end result!

It is sleet, pop gresil into french translator

[phil nw.]

Just looking again at the ecm mean ht anomalies and that's pretty good for cold.

To me it looks like the first ridge does topple but note the sign of another one developing towards Greenland behind it.Low pressure also over the continent.

Ok it's not yet showing a classic easterly but the pattern is still open to that.

Edited January 29, 2021 by phil nw.

[Allseasons-Si]

.....And all good here from what i have in front of me...

the latest from the cpc 6-10/8-14 day 500mb height anomalies

The AO with a slight blip into +ve then back into -ve just,the AO though still into well -ve and still signaling reversals atop

the MJO ext from ecm/gefs still looking pretty good to me also

and lastly, the ECM is a slight outlier.

 

[Man With Beard]

Bit of a surprise to see that ECM ensemble set.

But then again it shouldn't be really. We're not quite in uncharted territory, but we're in rare-ish territory. We are in the middle of winter with random forcing patterns, and areas with no forcing patterns. If a low gets stuck in the wrong place, as it does on ECM, cold is off the menu.

On balance, though, I'd still expect an easterly for at least a while, despite the ECM tonight. If other models follow, I'll change my view!

[Stu_London]

34 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

A lot as said ecm is not that good.  we had very good update from met office today Surely they are quite confident or can they get completely wrong . I don’t think it’s that straight forward with easterlys. In 2018 did models pick easterlys up then drop and bring them back or did models run with it with no dramas.

Think it came in a couple of days later than was originally anticipated. 

This has never been a straightforward passage. There have been ensemble members that have been pretty much discounting the cold spell throughout the build up. A small jolt backwards with this afternoons runs with regards to the chances of a cold spell without a doubt, but still lots of outcomes on the table, including a noteworthy severe winter weather spell.

[Allseasons-Si]

Just before the 18z ICON fully finishers here is the midweek snow potential from the 12z.

[Matt H]

ICON 18z is still going for a fairly decent snow event next Tuesday.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[MJB]

Northern most extent of tomorrow's snow 

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

.....And all good here from what i have in front of me...

the latest from the cpc 6-10/8-14 day 500mb height anomalies

 

 

Just checking the source for those charts and all 00z/06z.  However, The 12z runs are all amplified to our nw at day 11 (which is the source for the cpc 8/14). 
 

the 12z ens output is not awful by any means but as the runs tick by, the expectation is that a developing deeply cold scenario should be firming up rather than becoming less clear .....

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

Northern most extent of tomorrow's snow 

Do I detect another northern correction? Unusual when against high pressure to the north.

[sebastiaan1973]

2 hours ago, sunnijim said:

One would hope that the Mogreps has a handle on this.

The volatility we are seeing in the free to view models is in sharp contrast to a confident long ranger from the M.O.

The update suggests a block to the North East from the 4th and all the way toward the end of February.

This sort of robust outlook in terms of widespread cold and snow hasn't been offered up so far this winter.

All the fantastic charts with 'potential'  we witnessed in December and January were never met with much of a response from Exeter.

 

I think the M.O. longranger has his information from EC46. Which is indeed good for coldies.

[Bricriu]

Just now, sebastiaan1973 said:

I think the M.O. longranger has his information from EC46. Which is indeed good for coldies.

I hope not. The EC46 is fickle enough at times.

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs is a lot further south with it's boundary and the wave squashed more ...

18z 102 v's 12z 108.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run, so far I think it looking OK, maybe better than 12z, T102:

I wonder if the low circled yellow might help in getting some sort of connection between the developing high and arctic high to bring the cold from the NE...we will see...

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs is a lot further south with it's boundary...

18z 102 v's 12z 108.

Moving towards icon for tuesday

[ICE COLD]

I like the gfs 18z at day 5 looks better than the ECM op 

[sheikhy]

Gfs no move towards ecm whatsoever at 138 hours

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Moving towards icon for tuesday

Yep,it's catching up,...meanwhile the gfs has the cold air in at 126...

... v's...

[ICE COLD]

Colder uppers in earlier like UKMO

[fellmike]

3 hours ago, Paul said:

A fresh model thread to continue to follow the ups and downs of what's already been an action-packed winter so far. There's a snow risk in places this weekend and into next week, then there are increasing signs from the models that the beast from the east could arrive later in the week - though nothing is nailed on yet..

Model thread rules of engagement!
As usual, please keep it to the models in this thread, and keep it friendly and respectful of other people's views.

• If your post is discussing the model output, then it's fine in this thread
• If your post is mostly not about the models, briefly mentioning a model by name or putting a chart in there does not make it model discussion - the best place for this sort of thing is the winter chat thread.
• Please use the Met Office thread to discuss their outlooks.
• A local slant is ok as many people prefer to look at the models with a view to their local conditions
• Local 'will it snow type' posts, or local forecast chat are not suited to the model thread though, the best place for these sorts of posts is the regional area

The stratosphere is a bit talking point at the moment, for more info and in depth discussion around that, please take a look at the Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch thread.

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
UKV (Extra subscribers)
GFS
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met Office (UKMO)
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Evening  why is the GEM model stuck on 28th November?

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Colder uppers in earlier like UKMO

Looking good to me at 138

More drama than EastEnders this model watching lark!

 

[ICE COLD]

And at day 6 so much better than the ECM op

[Weathizard]

I can sense the Siberian express approaching

[Mike Poole]

Compare GFS 18z T138 with ECM T144 from earlier (this one’s still got my scribbling on it):

That NE flow round both the arctic high and our developing block is crucial.  Always difficult where to look in these situations, but this is more important than the southern end at this stage for me, the GFS evolution should sort the Genoa cherry cake thing in due course?