Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Djdazzle]

Brief easterly, and not a long fetch one, on the 18z.

It’s a good run, but it’s not a classic.

[MJB]

Well nothing has changed tonight 

Great updates from the MET and the BEEB and 18Z continues the Easterly theme , we will always get variations when we see so many runs each day and we ( me especially ) over analyse them ...........I think the BIGGEST thing now has to be , just when will ECM join in .

[winterof79]

Variations of a theme. Easterly feed remains even though you see a high. All change tomorrow with positioning so sleep well. 

Edited January 30, 2021 by winterof79

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Fine margins between cold and dry and cold and snowy (12z Vs 18z below...

Yes  too high heights this time.

[MJB]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Variations of a theme. Easterly feed remains even though you see a high. 

And it would feel just a tad chilly 

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Brief easterly, and not a long fetch one, on the 18z.

It’s a good run, but it’s not a classic.

No guarantees, but happy to see consistency, what happens in FI isn't going to be known any time soon

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Variations of a theme. Easterly feed remains even though you see a high. 

It is not variations on a theme.

We've gone from deep seated, low thickness E'ly to a brief E'ly waft followed by a UK HP within 48 hours. Who's to say the downgrade in synoptics will stop there?

[Don]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like a brief waft of -8 uppers as the low drops S to me. This is followed by HP sinking S over the UK. No idea what people are seeing here but these are not the runs of a couple of days ago where we were seeing -13 uppers from a stonking E'ly.

Who knows, that may be shown in FI but the main course has been delayed once more.

Sorry Crewe but if we don't get a cold February, I'm going to have to insist you eat that sock! 

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It is not variations on a theme.

We've gone from deep seated, low thickness E'ly to a brief E'ly waft followed by a UK HP within 48 hours. Who's to say the downgrade in synoptics will stop there?

Can I ask what runs had the low thickness E'ly?

EDIT: NVM it was the runs from the 28th. However it was an ify affair. All GFS runs below.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Snowman.

[winterof79]

Just now, CreweCold said:

It is not variations on a theme.

We've gone from deep seated, low thickness E'ly to a brief E'ly waft followed by a UK HP within 48 hours. Who's to say the downgrade in synoptics will stop there?

Yes who's to say. Night all. Its still going to be very cold. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Don said:

Sorry Crewe but if we don't get a cold February, I'm going to have to insist you eat that sock! 

[kold weather]

The 18z GFS sits pretty neatly within the average synoptics of the 12z GFS ensembles fwiw.

A brief cold easterly before we build a UK high. You can see how we could easily cut off that easterly even earlier if the HP were to build faster in from the Atlantic.

All paths lead to surface cold I think at the moment, its just whether or not we can make it a good, or great spell in the process.

Tough to know where we go from 240hrs though. Could see us in a southerly of sorts with a developing scandi high to our east and a large LP complex to our NW? Or maybe an undercut, or maybe a full blown Euro high. Who knows!

Edited January 30, 2021 by kold weather

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It is not variations on a theme.

We've gone from deep seated, low thickness E'ly to a brief E'ly waft followed by a UK HP within 48 hours. Who's to say the downgrade in synoptics will stop there?

Yawn of course it’s a variation on the theme it’s representative of the ensembles from across all suites 

[Stu_London]

@kold weather

I think you dry cold run with HP nearer the uk has arrived

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It is not variations on a theme.

We've gone from deep seated, low thickness E'ly to a brief E'ly waft followed by a UK HP within 48 hours. Who's to say the downgrade in synoptics will stop there?

Yes it is , what charts are you looking at ..........the headline is " Weather is to come from the East " even the BEEB have said they aren't sure of the depth of cold and have said it could feel " VERY cold " 

I am afraid it's wrong to say there is no variation......quite bizarre 

[northwestsnow]

That looks a super cold airmass to the North West...

[Don]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Lol, on a more serious note, it sounds like you do not feel February will be anything to write home about?  However, surely cold snowy snaps are still likely even if we don't get a sustained cold spell?

[IDO]

Looking like the Arctic wedge spins on its axis around d7 much like the ecm first modelled and we lose the Asia>Scandi trough and the long fetch cold. It is therefore a case of how much cold pooling can we get from that initial thrust and any scraps from features to our north?

So at d9 we can see the loss of the severe cold and the reliance on pooling:

 

Those wedges (Arctic) moving in the flow kill the direction of travel as they spin on their axis. The cold pooling is less than the 12z and then we have the UK high and the Atlantic to our west by d10 (again).

Once we lose that Arctic wedge favouring us that is the first shot gone. Hopefully FI will throw up further wedges and ridging to maybe get a second chance? Seems better than ecm and they could meet somewhere in the middle?

[Jason M]

Well that was an anti climax. A few cold dry days and that's your lot. Next set please!!!

In truth don't worry too much over anything that happens after around 192 hours as its all subject to big changes. In some ways I'm glad its not showing a big easterly because the charts are unlikely to be correct at that range.

[Djdazzle]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It is not variations on a theme.

We've gone from deep seated, low thickness E'ly to a brief E'ly waft followed by a UK HP within 48 hours. Who's to say the downgrade in synoptics will stop there?

And therein lies the problem with looking at FI synoptics. That long fetch easterly was always going to be a serious long shot.

The GEM is still showing something like it, but it’s the GEM!

Since 1991, it’s only been 2018 where we have seen a true one in a winter month, with a few honourable mentions thrown in.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Djdazzle

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

@kold weather

I think you dry cold run with HP nearer the uk has arrived

At least we do still draw in an ok easterly for a time.

There were some runs which almost instantly build it in. Like having a UK high fully in place by 168hrs for example.

This run though is pretty close to what I'd say the average of the whole 12z suite showed though, which broadly was a short blast from the east followed by pressure rise nearby.

I;d say we are still set-up well at 240hrs but it will be a close run thing as to how that evolves from there on. Could easily see a true beast towards the end of this run try and happen.

Edited January 30, 2021 by kold weather

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like a brief waft of -8 uppers as the low drops S to me. This is followed by HP sinking S over the UK. No idea what people are seeing here but these are not the runs of a couple of days ago where we were seeing -13 uppers from a stonking E'ly.

Who knows, that may be shown in FI but the main course has been delayed once more.

What is it with -15 uppers and some folks! We don't need those uppers to deliver significant snowfalls unless your taking up residence on the Isle of White or the South Coast. We have very cold air to the NE and milder Atlantic Air to the SW..So a boundary somewhere across the UK will put some areas at risk of quite a lot of Snow..There have been numerous snow events across the UK with only marginal uppers for some time,so an Estly is somewhat of a bonus. Its not the b all and end all though..plenty of convection perhaps towards the East but not necessarily beneficial for Western and Central areas. You seem to come on here every few days and big up the potential,only to appear a couple of days later and play it all down again. You can't tell me this is not so much better than the last couple of years..The expectations on here at times would be fine if we all lived in lapland.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

FI but this screams of battleground and a Scandi HP with easterly to follow

But a mute point at that range

BFTP

Edited January 30, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Don]

Overall, the 18z is not as good as the 12z which is a disappointment, although just one of the twists and turn to come over the next few days.  Roller coaster ride continues!

[Griff]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Yawn of course it’s a variation on the theme it’s representative of the ensembles from across all suites 

I think people are hoping for repeated beasts plus day 10?

I'm not experienced to judge but that seems unlikely. Although I wouldn't rule out the occasional run to offer one up? 

However, it's always a possibility if the cold heads our way first. 

I appreciate scepticism, but sometimes it sounds like reverse psychology and I'm not convinced nature works that way.