Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[feb1991blizzard]

Could be a snorter but so little margin to play with, both around S Greenland and wrt that long thin slither of heights, if the 2 areas of troughing engage each other too quick its end of cold spell not long after.

[ICE COLD]

Lovely . The cold is on

[northwestsnow]

There is brutal cold waiting in the wings...

We are so close here....

[Tim Bland]

Rock solid

[Stu_London]

6 minutes ago, Griff said:

Friday 7pm....

A little delayed from the 12z but good

[danm]

17 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Darren i think nearly all the ensembles kill the easterly relatively quickly in terms of uppers. A lot stay cold at the surface. 1963 and 1991 didnt have uppers to write home about after the initial bite from the beast

Yes, it’s rare enough to get -15c uppers over the UK, let alone them sticking around for too long. Once get get some deep cold in and there is snow, we develop plenty of surface cold and our own cold pool which can give further chances for snow. 

[Griff]

I'd be happy with this

[winterof79]

Just hope our high doesn't push south and cut the flow off quickly 

Edited January 30, 2021 by winterof79

[ICE COLD]

T180 you beauty 

[kold weather]

Only slight frustration on a personal level with this run for the SE is it takes 2 whole days for the air to get down here and by the time it does the winds swing will likely start to swing more northerly again due to the HP over Greenland getting pressure from the west which sharpens the HP to a more N-S orientation. Very little snow for SE as well due to the frontal zone being JUST too far SE out to 192hrs as well.

Heck of a snow event on this run further north as well though.

Definately hints over todays models that a large snow event is possible next weekend, but as per normal, seems uncertain where at the moment.

PS - watch for a snowy attempt breakdown around 216-240hrs on this run...

Edited January 30, 2021 by kold weather

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

The big difference is the cold will already be in.

Where ECM went wrong badly was the cold never really got established as the LP over the UK took so long to move that by the time the Atlantic came in we had barely any cold to work with.

GFS should get the cold down for a time before any challenge.

Painfully slow movement of the cold air south mind you this run without any LP to help pull it down.

Indeed Mate

the trough over us clearing south quicker makes huge difference .....but the trough between Greenland and Iceland is the BIG player for clean prolonged uninterrupted cold ....Newfoundland to Hudson is a player here.  Still bitter cold comes in..

 

BFTP

Edited January 30, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Man With Beard]

Wow never seen analysis like this on a run as it comes out, and this is for the infamous pub run!!

Out to D7, and the GFS continues to change just the minutae, rather than the whole meal. Message remains: Easterly slowly introduced between Thursday and Saturday.

Must be said it's a bit close for comfort in southern parts. Not a cert in these parts by any means.

Edited January 30, 2021 by Man Without Beard

[northwestsnow]

Its a stonking run and I will be ecstatic if EC follows it in the morning...

[Griff]

Variation on the same theme, so consistent 

[MJB]

Being super picky , i preferred the 12z , the isobars were so much tighter dragging in a lot of ppn 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks like a brief waft of -8 uppers as the low drops S to me. This is followed by HP sinking S over the UK. No idea what people are seeing here but these are not the runs of a couple of days ago where we were seeing -13 uppers from a stonking E'ly.

Who knows, that may be shown in FI but the main course has been delayed once more.

Edited January 30, 2021 by CreweCold

[Hotspur62]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

T180 you beauty 

As well as the U.K. going cold look what is happening in the USA/Canada.Could be one of few occasions that both are very cold simultaneously!!

[kold weather]

192hrs screams really cold evolution coming up, at least at the surface.

High pressure forming near the UK likely to cut off that easterly BUT allowing for some real cold surface inversion to form. Still think we will see an Atlantic push on this run between 216-240hrs but whether or not it gets shunted away, we will see!

Very snowy run, especially for the north. Further south less so as the frontal boundary being so close will probably cap the showers though obviously the normal streamers will still develop to some extent I'm sure, just maybe not as vigorous as sometimes due to that frontal boundary on the 18z GFS drapped across the channel

Edited January 30, 2021 by kold weather

[MJB]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like a brief waft of -8 uppers as the low drops S to me. This is followed by HP sinking S over the UK. No idea what people are seeing here but these are not the runs of a couple of days ago where we were seeing -13 uppers from a stonking E'ly

Did you miss the 12z , that was excellent with widespread heavy drifting snow - its another variation of the cold coming 

[Tim Bland]

Fine margins between cold and dry and cold and snowy (12z Vs 18z below...

[Snowman.]

12Z tried to bring warmth from the south which is what caused the 2 day long snow event.

This time it doesnt make it, but check out the snow across nothern france into belgium and so on, incredible scences there. Big line of snow!

[Jason M]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

Being super picky , i preferred the 12z , the isobars were so much tighter dragging in a lot of ppn 

The issue is probably more to do with the warm front sitting in the channel. I'd imagine the cloud shield would be killing any convection south of the midlands, pressure is a bit high north of this. All detail though which is subject to change.

[Stu_London]

French PPN about 100 miles south on this run - difference between moderate snow in a force 7-8 for most of the south and nothing except for it brushing the coast

[JoeShmoe]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like a brief waft of -8 uppers as the low drops S to me. This is followed by HP sinking S over the UK. No idea what people are seeing here but these are not the runs of a couple of days ago where we were seeing -13 uppers from a stonking E'ly.

Who knows, that may be shown in FI but the main course has been delayed once more.

It’s one run and I’ll wait until the 0zs but agree the real BFTE this isn’t, however for  the north and Scotland a real possibility of significant snow next week as that front moves north and stalls especially to higher ground ... 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Jason M said:

The issue is probably more to do with the warm front sitting in the channel. I'd imagine the cloud shield would be killing any convection south of the midlands, pressure is a bit high north of this. All detail though which is subject to change.

Exactly right Jason, it'd very likely cap the south, especially SE if that run were to be right.

Of course locally the streamer/frictional convergence maybe enough to overcome that, especially if we can drag in sub -10c isotherm at 850hpa and steep enough lapse rates. Just don't expect it to go all Feb 91 on us in that evolution on the 18z GFS down here.

Its still a damn cold run regardless, and I'll take it over the ECM.