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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Is it me or are we about to see a rip snorter of a gfs 18z❄

Think we MIGHT be about to see a GOOD run, that is as far as i will go at this stage.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
Just now, Don said:

If that's the case, wouldn't we want the ECM to be correct as that could lead to cold albeit in deep FI?!   Are you expecting a UK high scenario to be the most likely outcome or just a possibility that may show up in future runs?

A UK high would still put us into an amazing position for any second bite. It'd be far from game over if that were to occur, just push things back, plus we could quite easily still draw in a easterly for a short time ahead of it IF that were to happen.

As for what will happen. No idea, I'm very wary of the type of situation the models are trying to do as there are lot of pinch points which the models typically struggle with (little cutoff lows near Greenland, upper highs being over/under estimated to our north, etc) therefore FI must be very close in, probably no further than 120hrs at the moment.

I'd guess it will show up at some point on the model suite, its showing up on something like 20-30% (that is a ballpark figure mind you!) of the entire ensemble suite of the GFS/GEM/ECM so it clearly must be an option to think about, coming far more often then the ECM op solution, put it that way.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

Darren i think nearly all the ensembles kill the easterly relatively quickly in terms of uppers. A lot stay cold at the surface. 1963 and 1991 didnt have uppers to write home about after the initial bite from the beast

I don't think the brutally cold uppers lasted that long during the January 1987 spell either?  However, just have to hope that if the easterly comes off, we get plenty of snow whilst the uppers are cold!

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is it me or are we about to see a rip snorter of a gfs 18z❄

Sinking quicker tonight

image.thumb.png.ecbb6fe562ef56bab35fc0dee5b776b7.png

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs looks slightly further South with the low Tuesday...

Very snow for the NE!

Looks Good for the far north and Scotland but for most it turns back to rain fairly quickly.

I’d expect north York moors and Durham etc to do well, along with southern uplands 

008A094C-BADA-45F0-9C63-7650A5EC10B2.png

039F32A2-A972-4404-AB55-39D2B8F2BFAB.png

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted
Just now, Don said:

I don't think the brutally cold uppers lasted that long during the January 1987 spell either?  However, just have to hope that if the easterly comes off, we get plenty of snow whilst the uppers are cold!

the cold spell itself was less than a week - my snow gone in a couple of days - but i did live in Devon.

In 1991 is stayed very cold at the surface with a dry inversion

 

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

image.thumb.png.d3d1c748b506456e0c2470165ca787f5.png
ok spoiler time....this is developing quicker and cleaner...it’ll collapse now

 

BFTO 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
3 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Darren i think nearly all the ensembles kill the easterly relatively quickly in terms of uppers. A lot stay cold at the surface. 1963 and 1991 didnt have uppers to write home about after the initial bite from the beast

I think perhaps I misspoken when I said kill off the cold, I'm sure we'd be cold in such a situation, possibly even very cold should Europe still go into the freezer and we keep a mean E/SE airflow.

Its just obviously if we were to have a HP nearby it'd probably kill off any chances of major snow events coming down unless we were to get enough of a push from the Atlantic, but such a situation would probably result in a strong SW airflow ahead of it as the high topples towards Europe, which isn't a great evolution out of a cold spell.

Still this may well just be academic anyway and not something to worry overly much about.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Popular Post
Posted

Very clean at 120 with no shortwave dramas...

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.ed24dc8dddfc6c23062cf1ecfa839dd0.png

 

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Sinking quicker tonight

image.thumb.png.ecbb6fe562ef56bab35fc0dee5b776b7.png

Correction south.... Surprise. 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

18z GFS looking broadly like ICON at the moment, as well as similar to the UKMO earlier.

Purely from a perfectionist point of view I'd like that LP to our SW to be somewhat further east so we don't draw up too much of a southerly into the south which may take a time to dislodge, but looking decent so far.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Well this is very early on T126, and we’ve got the alignment of the Atlantic and Arctic highs, and the cold is coming down, and the troublesome low looks like it has somewhere to go:

3C223336-136A-4B04-962C-6BB343B1648C.thumb.png.002afa7d0589e6b0e00b91e367ba4de8.png

Too easy?  Or an absolute snorter? 

Keep watching!

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.cef65f7261d33ac1a1dc5117a1e44312.png
 

not liking this...look at area between Newfoundland and Hudson Bay...that trough looks like it will swing up between Greenland and Iceland....a la ECM

edit...concern over....beautiful 

image.thumb.png.30813b4660b800bf92dacd85812fa97f.png


 

 

 BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

image.thumb.png.cef65f7261d33ac1a1dc5117a1e44312.png
 

not liking this...look at area between Newfoundland and Hudson Bay...that trough looks like it will swing up between Greenland and Iceland....a la ECM

 BFTP

Relax BFTP,it's weaker than the 12z.

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

The smallest correction south develops the easterly much quicker

image.thumb.png.d11493b28d05ee83f73450c08618d239.png

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

image.thumb.png.cef65f7261d33ac1a1dc5117a1e44312.png
 

not liking this...look at area between Newfoundland and Hudson Bay...that trough looks like it will swing up between Greenland and Iceland....a la ECM

 BFTP

The big difference is the cold will already be in.

Where ECM went wrong badly was the cold never really got established as the LP over the UK took so long to move that by the time the Atlantic came in we had barely any cold to work with.

GFS should get the cold down for a time before any challenge.

Painfully slow movement of the cold air south mind you this run without any LP to help pull it down.

Edited by kold weather
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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Relax BFTP,it's weaker than the 12z.

Indeed....this is now going to be a monster run.  De-wobbling gaining traction 

 

BFTP

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

The smallest correction south develops the easterly much quicker

image.thumb.png.d11493b28d05ee83f73450c08618d239.png

Yep all hinges on how quick the low drops south...

We can but hope EC moves it faster on the 00z run.

Edited by northwestsnow
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