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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
10 minutes ago, MJB said:

You have clearly forgotten when ECM took everyone up the garden path to cold and then incredibly dropped it .........NO , repeat NO model is always correct 

When was that, I remember 1 run back before early-January (I think) which opened the door to easterlies but then chopped back but there have been two occasions after Xmas when GFS has showed consistent charts of wintry nirvana to be dropped. They all have there faults, long way to run on this episode though and as mentioned yesterday if we are to get an easterly it's unusual for the euro ecm to be flapping.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

We’ve had 1060+ before highest atmospheric pressure on record in region 1064mb in Sweden on 23rd January 1907 It’s worth noting the strength of blocking doesn’t necessarily make it more stubborn, many times I’ve seen strong blocking over Scandi quickly bowled away/sink. 114 years ago this happened and brutally cold air very quickly moderated good thing there was no Netweather forum then.  

CF64BB95-F766-4550-BCAF-6B5071030230.thumb.png.f8e6972b5830ef22a4429e06bd9b066d.pngD6F1FB8B-02CC-452B-86CE-077B984A2DF2.thumb.png.2f115f010560d33889d704bdee9e9773.png282B7250-44D4-4328-B2A2-4B00F992EA82.thumb.png.40cc88efc318c946e65a6a15856699a5.png

 

On that basis it must be faulty data - I dont think these records get smashed by 10-15 mb at a time

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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, (Very) East London
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, sun and snow.
  • Location: Upminster, (Very) East London
7 hours ago, Lord Grogon said:

Quiet in here this afternoon. Not unexpected given the uncertainty at the moment.

If anybody is feeling bored, but helpful, I have a curious itch that needs a good scratch please.

I often hear references to “that ECM”. I gather it was some sort of predicted Easterly around 2012 that never happened. I’d be interested to know more about it. At what timescale did it change. Was it a sudden change or death by a thousand downgrades? How did it align with the other models? I gather is must be a big deal here. After all, a poster has even named themselves after it!


Any references or links would be most welcome. 
 

I know it’s a sad request, but it’s been chucking it down all day (rain) and I’m after something interesting to read about.

Thank you to everyone who responded earlier. 

For anyone who is interested, I think I've pinned it down to the ECM12z on 9 Jan 2013. It's hard to say for certain because I can't access most of the model pictures via the archives. But there was a heck of a lot of excitement. Between 9-14 Jan there were thousands of posts going through each day! If I recall, it did snow in Jan 2013, but it wasn't an epic Easterly. March of 2013 was definitely colder, indeed it was the coldest month of that winter which is a fairly rare event.

If there is a lesson for anyone from this it's never to ignore a model simply because it isn't showing what you want to see (in that case the GFS). The forum was a veritable bear pit during those heady days and sadly, anyone who tried to preach caution was given a rough time or even worse simply labelled a troll. 

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
5 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Evening everybody hint from fergie weather that a possible delay before easterly sets in,

read what you will from that statement.My take possibly talking about ECM tonight,we shall see.

That's not how I read it , he is just uncertain as to how cold , just my take on it 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon is sliding the low earlier at 120 on its latest run helped by a stronger scandi high.

Cold 850mb temps in by Thursday.

 

iconnh-0-120 (26).png

iconnh-1-120 (3).png

On the other hand flatter in the atlantic up western greenland!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Good start from the ICON - will we be treated to a Saturday night pub run special?

Didnt the ICON used to be the DWD - that wasnt all that

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
19 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

We’ve had 1060+ before highest atmospheric pressure on record in region 1064mb in Sweden on 23rd January 1907 It’s worth noting the strength of blocking doesn’t necessarily make it more stubborn, many times I’ve seen strong blocking over Scandi quickly bowled away/sink. 114 years ago this happened and brutally cold air very quickly moderated good thing there was no Netweather forum then.  

CF64BB95-F766-4550-BCAF-6B5071030230.thumb.png.f8e6972b5830ef22a4429e06bd9b066d.pngD6F1FB8B-02CC-452B-86CE-077B984A2DF2.thumb.png.2f115f010560d33889d704bdee9e9773.png282B7250-44D4-4328-B2A2-4B00F992EA82.thumb.png.40cc88efc318c946e65a6a15856699a5.png

 

I'm sure that has happened many a time to high pressure  over Greenland.  To  my mind the higher the pressure  the faster it disappears once its presented with a means of escape 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
6 minutes ago, MJB said:

That's not how I read it , he is just uncertain as to how cold , just my take on it 

Yes, that's how I read it too.  High confidence next weekend will be cold, question is how cold?

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

Those of us who have been here a while will know that we've been up more garden paths than Alan Titchmarsh...

Just don't get too excited until you can't see your garden path for snow. It looks like that could be the case... if it doesn't happen, don't blame the models, blame the weather...

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

I think modelling is giving us about a 70/30 chance of a decent easterly.

With the 70 - some are not nationwide and not very many have lots of longevity - uppers anyway

30 - so high because its ECM

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I wouldn't be shocked if one of the next few GFS runs develops a UK high rather than Scandi high. It has been showing on all three of the main ensembles suites, we'd be lucky if it doesn't show itself at some point on the op, even if it does go well.

Just thought I'd put that put there as I'm sure there will be some meltdowns if that happens!

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
18 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon is sliding the low earlier at 120 on its latest run helped by a stronger scandi high.

Cold 850mb temps in by Thursday.

 

iconnh-0-120 (26).png

iconnh-1-120 (3).png

Day 10 yeah?

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
16 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

On the other hand flatter in the atlantic up western greenland!!!

Sup with that? 

image.thumb.png.711c8c1213f1880fad24e36477afd4d5.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Just now, winterof79 said:

Sup with that? 

image.thumb.png.711c8c1213f1880fad24e36477afd4d5.png

Nothing wrong with it mate looks good for us in the uk!!!just slightly flatter southwest greenland with a bit more energy coming off the eastern seaboard!!!gfs 18z no change up to 66 hours so far

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Just now, sheikhy said:

Nothing wrong with it mate looks good for us in the uk!!!just slightly flatter southwest greenland with a bit more energy coming off the eastern seaboard!!!gfs 18z no change up to 66 hours so far

Hopefully  looks like it's winding up to a stiff easterly

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
31 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Evening everybody hint from fergie weather that a possible delay before easterly sets in,

read what you will from that statement.My take possibly talking about ECM tonight,we shall see.

Did he say which year he expected it to land 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs looks slightly further South with the low Tuesday...

Very snow for the NE!

Yuo funny how ecm drops it and now gfs wants to give it a go

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Nothing wrong with it mate looks good for us in the uk!!!just slightly flatter southwest greenland with a bit more energy coming off the eastern seaboard!!!gfs 18z no change up to 66 hours so far

IMO that may lead to a higher chance of a UK high forming as there is more pressure on the ICON coming from the west.

Would still give a easterly for a time I'm sure, but the supply might be cut off very quickly if that run came off.

IMO thats a far more likely way that this cold spell won't come off than what the ECM is trying to show. I've got a funny feeling the GFS may show something like that in the next few runs as quite a lot of the ensemble members had variations of that theme after maybe a brief easterly.

Hopefully not but the trend has been to shift those upper highs further south as we get closer to the time this winter so far.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

IMO thats a far more likely way that this cold spell won't come off than what the ECM is trying to show. I've got a funny feeling the GFS may show something like that in the next few runs as quite a lot of the ensemble members had variations of that theme after maybe a brief easterly.

If that's the case, wouldn't we want the ECM to be correct as that could lead to a cold spell, albeit in deep FI?!   Are you expecting a UK high scenario to be the most likely outcome or just a possibility that may show up in future runs?

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

IMO that may lead to a higher chance of a UK high forming as there is more pressure on the ICON coming from the west.

Would still give a easterly for a time I'm sure, but the supply might be cut off very quickly if that run came off.

IMO thats a far more likely way that this cold spell won't come off than what the ECM is trying to show. I've got a funny feeling the GFS may show something like that in the next few runs as quite a lot of the ensemble members had variations of that theme after maybe a brief easterly.

Hopefully not but the trend has been to shift those upper highs further south as we get closer to the time this winter so far.

Darren i think nearly all the ensembles kill the easterly relatively quickly in terms of uppers. A lot stay cold at the surface. 1963 and 1991 didnt have uppers to write home about after the initial bite from the beast

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