Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean, T144 - good agreement on the atlantic and arctic high link up, and T240, good for northern blocking to bring the cold in:

12z suite in all, what’s not to like?

[sunnijim]

6 minutes ago, StingJet said:

There was just a touch of sarcasm in my post ... Yes of course mate all models chop and change run to run, it has been noted though that when the ECM consistently delivers a certain "trend"  i.e. in this case the UK still dominated by a fairly mobile west - east flow of LP systems heading our way off the Atlantic with mild sectors alternating with post cold front "cold pools" , with no signs of northern / scandi blocking or beast'esque synoptics, then it does have an uncanny knack of verifying, again substantiated by the Beeb and MetO extended outlooks.  

Have you got any evidence to back these claims up? 

Certainly the Met office extended doesn't back the ECM on this occasion.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Get in there my son..

Its slowly slowly catchy monkey coming into line

Edited January 30, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[SLEETY]

So all models against the ECM,if its called this correct then hats off,but if its wrong,then might have to turn the ECM servers off,can you believe it.

 

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by SLEETY

[kold weather]

10 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Its simply because its still not showing what most want...ie a raging Estly and -20 uppers with Thames streamers..well im quite happy with the numerous snowfalls that have occurred around here and up North so far this Winter! Yes its plausible,but its out on its own at present.. 

I think there maybe an element of that. Personally I got a decent fall of snow last weekend and so if I go the rest of winter without it I won't mind too much.

The good thing is what is making it out on its own is caused by a bit of a bias within the model with the way it handles cutoff lows and keeping them hanging around too long.

That is of course not to say its wrong, its quite possible that this time the cutoff low will really sit around. Its just that instead of being a 50-50 between what its showing and the others as per normal, this time the odds are weighed closer to what the rest of the suite are showing.

I think the UKMO/ICON are probably a reasonable middle ground. Some of the GFS ensembles are crazy fast and have an easterly setting in by Wednesday morning!

EDIT - Yes the ECM ensembles are broadly faster in ejecting the low E/SE than the OP run.You can tell by how the OP is right at the top end of the ensemble range as it takes so long to get the cold down.

Edited January 30, 2021 by kold weather

[Man With Beard]

Ecm ensembles clearly produce a mean easterly for the UK between Fri 5th and Mon 8th.

Ecm op run is slightly on its own tonight.

[Timmytour]

The ECM may seem poor in its output at present, but ultimately the weather we get will be its judge.  Those models consistently showing a cold outcome will prove to be the poorest IF (and I so hope it is NOT the case) the real cold fails to make its way onto our shores. In that event a model flipping between one scenario and the other  will have to be given more credit than a model that has got it consistently wrong

It's been mentioned a couple of times already on this thread, but waiting with bated breath for the ECM to get on board is so reminiscent of "That ECM" time.  I think it might worry me more if it ends up obliging, as it finally did that year, only for the whole thing to then collapse within a day!

 

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment removed

[Matt H]

Much better ECM 12z ensemble mean at t144 with signs of a decent easterly developing across quite a few of the individual members.

Meanwhile this is the ECM operational run after changing its evolution significantly on every run...

[Froze were the Days]

3 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Ecm ensembles clearly produce a mean easterly for the UK between Fri 5th and Mon 8th.

Ecm op run is slightly on its own tonight.

Why is the op continuing to do this at that timescale...is that 3 runs now? makes the rest of the run/s superfluous ?

Edited January 30, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[Frosty.]

Looking at tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean..it’s trending colder..permission to let out a hurrah?

 charts not in order..hurrah!

Edited January 30, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Man With Beard]

Just for fun, there's some serious beasts on the ECM ensembles tonight. Minus 15C uppers on the east coast for three whole days on this one!

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Why is the op continuing to do this at that timescale...is that 3 runs now?

Yep 3 runs in a row . I would be very worried if the last  3 runs had been similar to each other but as they’ve been completely different it makes me feel a little calmer and it must be struggling. 

[tight isobar]

The ec op needs rehab=or a dry slap!!.@you decide!!...EPS...easterly incoming...and broad...welcome to winter...@REAL..ciao fa-now.

@500 geos.

Edited January 30, 2021 by tight isobar

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep 3 runs in a row . I would be very worried if the last  3 runs had been similar to each other but as they’ve been completely different it makes me feel a little calmer and it must be struggling. 

But we all know that the 18Zs, and whatnots, will bring back Snowmageddon? And, if they don't, I'll only have 2 pages through which to troll (I mean trawl) come tomorrow morning!

[Allseasons-Si]

I will take that thank you EPS

day ten...

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I will take that thank you EPS

day ten...

Banging snaps this evening..@eps 12z......hold steady...winter is on its way...✌....with what could be a pent up passion ...

[StingJet]

12 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Have you got any evidence to back these claims up? 

Certainly the Met office extended doesn't back the ECM on this occasion.

It will be interesting to see how the next week or so pans out,   from my observations thus far during this "winter" the extended outlooks from the "two" have both been fairly consistent with each other and ECM Op. The MetO extended outlook at 4pm today has dialled in the potential for cold (er) synoptics for the UK into Feb, which does tally with the ECM mean, the outlier at present is therefore the ECM Op , as others have eluded to, and appears to be sticking to its guns.

ECM Op for me has always been the "form horse"  happy to stand corrected though 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 hour ago, Jason H said:

Agreed. ECM continues along its own path towards cold. Not 1963 by any standards, but is this likely?

Nope. We would need something exceptional to better 1963. Not impossible, but very highly unlikely. Tomorrow morning should hopefully give a clearer picture on where this is heading. 

March 2013 was a belter of a month. The Channel Islands I remember got an absolute pasting. A proper blizzard that ranked up there with the likes of 1978. This was in March the other side of the Channel! Who knows what may be round the corner. 

Edited January 30, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Jason H]

2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Nope. We would need something exceptional to better 1963. Not impossible, but very highly unlikely. Tomorrow morning should hopefully give a clearer picture on where this is heading. 

It's clear enough to me where this is heading. I won't let one rogue (OK, 3) ECM op(s) detract me

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, JamesL said:

Errr right. 
 

Well it’s a model related question? 

 

Thought somebody here could help 

We'll have a look at what the 18z throws up bud..then I'll give ya a heads up ☝...@cross precipitation models..

Edited January 30, 2021 by tight isobar

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, StingJet said:

It will be interesting to see how the next week or so pans out,   from my observations thus far during this "winter" the extended outlooks from the "two" have both been fairly consistent with each other and ECM Op. The MetO extended outlook at 4pm today has dialled in the potential for cold (er) synoptics for the UK into Feb, which does tally with the ECM mean, the outlier at present is therefore the ECM Op , as others have eluded to, and appears to be sticking to its guns.

ECM Op for me has always been the "form horse"  happy to stand corrected though 

Usually I'd agree.

But as I said earlier the ECM has got a known bias for holding too long for cut off lows. Its not often discussed here but on other weather forums that I frequent in the states during the summer tropical season its a well known bias that the ECM op/control in particular will often hold cutoff upper lows in situ for too long and in reality they move through quicker than the ECM. In this set-up, thats EXACTLY what the ECM op does, which has to make it suspect.

Its rather telling that even the ICON which can sometimes have the same bias as the ECM is moving things through far quicker. However its always possible the ECM bias has allowed it to spot a trend early, just because a model has a bias doesn't mean it will always be wrong with it! Just on a balance of probability its more likely to be wrong than right. Always throwing that dice!

I'd personally be more worried about high pressure setting up too close to the UK and the easterly shunting into Europe than what the ECM op is showing at the moment, something which shows up a decent amount in the GFS/GEM and even ECM ensembles. It'd be cold but dry in such a solution. 

Edited January 30, 2021 by kold weather

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Nope. We would need something exceptional to better 1963. Not impossible, but very highly unlikely. Tomorrow morning should hopefully give a clearer picture on where this is heading. 

Hey, we're still on for the Domestic Treble, and the Europa League!

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Nope. We would need something exceptional to better 1963. Not impossible, but very highly unlikely. Tomorrow morning should hopefully give a clearer picture on where this is heading. 

Was just thinking we should no by tomorrow morning roughly where we’re headed ? But will we ? I hope we do . As @nick sussex would say just book us into the ritz for dinner ECM and not the premiere inn lol . 

[JamesL]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

We'll have a look at what the 18z throws up bud..then I'll give ya a heads up ☝...@cross precipitation models..

Thank you v much

[sunnijim]

10 minutes ago, StingJet said:

It will be interesting to see how the next week or so pans out,   from my observations thus far during this "winter" the extended outlooks from the "two" have both been fairly consistent with each other and ECM Op. The MetO extended outlook at 4pm today has dialled in the potential for cold (er) synoptics for the UK into Feb, which does tally with the ECM mean, the outlier at present is therefore the ECM Op , as others have eluded to, and appears to be sticking to its guns.

ECM Op for me has always been the "form horse"  happy to stand corrected though 

I agree with alot of this regards the ECM OP historically.

However my own observations on its performance this winter mean it hasn't covered itself in glory,and more often than not eventually follows others leads after much 'flip flopping'

Certainly not something seen in previous years where you always wanted ECM and UKMO on board with GFS solutions.