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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


Paul

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ECM was the last to see the cold in December too so not doing very well this year. It'll align with the others but only before the others move slightly toward it...

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

I must admit that the ECM evolution is a little suspect, despite the areas of high pressure over the pole and to our north, there still stills to be a strong enough west to east jet stream running through the Atlantic to essentially allow areas of low pressure to move through the UK, albeit on a more southerly track. It might happen, but I would be expecting that low around day 5 to simply continue eastwards like it is.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM will probably get there in the end but the south really does struggle all run, though still probably several snow events for those in the Midlands and north.

So for all those who are hoping the eCM is wrong, one nugget of hope from my observation over many years

It does not cope well with cutoff lows that get left in the flow. More often than not it spins them in place for too long instead of ejecting them eastwards. I've observed this in about the last 15 years of tropics watching where such features can make a huge impact on tracks and its a well known left bias that the Americans see alot, and I have no doubt it applies here as well.

Conversely the GFS is often a little too quick, which if you look at the ensembles you can kind of see that in action. The OP mind you looks more reasonable to me.

So where does that leave us. I'm suggesting that I don't thin the LP is just going to sit and sit over us like the ECM is suggesting. Not to say its totally wrong, but its taking way too long to shift the LP out of the way which then allows it to connect with whatever is going on in the Atlantic and basically shuts the door for alot of the south when it comes to snow chances. Doesn't really damage the norths chances though.

So the ECM may not be just a 'bin' run per say as it is a plausable outcome, BUT it is very much on the far end in terms of what a realistic solution looks like, in much the same way as some of the GFS ensembles clearing an easterly by Wednesday are too quick.

EDIT - I agree with Chino btw, the ECM post 240hrs has a real solid look to me, I think it'd get there in the end! Just another 3-5 day wait is not what we want now.

Easterlies often get delayed in modelling so the ECM might be on to something. Can't delay too long at the this time of year though - the sun gaining in strength every day and all that

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Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan

IF the ECM is wrong then it has dealt with this extremely badly 

You can’t dispel what it’s showing BUT it’s pretty much on it’s own 

It will be interesting to see how it sits amongst its’ ens 

Personally I’ve felt that the Ukm, gfs, gfs par, gem et al have all seen a fairly “clean” evolution this eve 

Ill never discount the ECM, it would be foolish, BUT the odds are stacking against it tonight imo 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

. . .  Faster than a rollercoaster, snow like **** is going to come my way; a hey --  a hey, hey:

t850Cheshire.png     image.thumb.png.296c58f9772bba8545797ebf037ad827.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever Mother Nature cares to throw my way
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)

I am quite intrigued by the GFS 850 animation (Metociel) from say T300h to T384h portraying a tsunami of super cooled 850s coming across Scandi west towards Iceland, with the "lip"  the "-12s"  curling back and breaking over Scotland with -8s, nice feature.   Better than making head or tail of the ECM 12 run ..

image.thumb.png.c4fa6225b06019464278bffef8f70e1c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

@Mark wheeler,...here you go buddy

the infamous NAVGEM

navgemnh-0-180.thumb.png.b3a61d28a33d1fe87d1feec763d283a2.pngnavgemnh-1-180.thumb.png.1fcc392665eb825aeffec4c8a31bb7ae.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
6 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Easterlies often get delayed in modelling so the ECM might be on to something. Can't delay too long at the this time of year though - the sun gaining in strength every day and all that

The thing is what stops the easterly on the ECM is that the LP takes so long to move out of the way to our SE that it ends up nearly getting absorbed by the atlantic low, which means any cold air that does make it to the south is so short lived that it just doesn't get cold enough before the next Atlantic low comes in.

If the LP moves to the SE quicker than what the ECM shows, then the connection is never made and you'd see a HP try to develop in the vaccum, which will almost certainly lead to some kind of easterly.

The ECM really does have a totally different evolution to the model suite due to how long it takes to move that cut off low out of the way of the UK. The good news is that it is a well known bias from those that statistically watch the models over in the states that the ECM one real weakness is leaving cutoff lows behind far too long. That us exactly what causes us to miss out on the easterly on the 12z ECM.

Not to say it can't be right of course, in this sort of situation you'd be foolish to write any model off, especially as we've seen easterlies scuppered over even less.

However the UKMO can be equally slow with cut off lows and the fact its going broadly along with the other models is good to see.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.

My verdict on EC Op 2z:

At 144h an improvement again, that's the most important.

After that, EC seems to behave like a bored teenager. Not really trying its best, so inconsistent.

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4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

I love how the most in here are trying to bring order to a chaotic system. Note: not even the best and expensive super duper IBM computers can. Some should study the functions of deterministic weather modelling. Ups, that takes ages and ends with a diploma in meteorology...

I'd add that if a model is not 'consistent' in it's output it might be because that model is the most accurate... if the real atmosphere is close to the boundaries of basins of attraction then an accurate simulation will detect that boundary by having 2 slightly different sets of initial conditions produce wildly different outcomes.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

GFS ensembles have mean uppers down to -8 to -9, 7th Feb.

Not many runs extend the cold very long, although some at the surface will stay very cold. The op for example had a couple of ice days while the 0C 850 isotherm was over us

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

During these times I retreat to the UKMO, its been a bit dodgy this year but it usually the most well rounded. It displays well it's no ECM with the high pressure angle but its nothing catastrophic either.

Waking up will be nervous tomorrow.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Just caught up . The ECM op is throwing out a completely different outcome every 12 hours and not in la la land . What is wrong with it ? I know all the models have been jumping around a bit but the ECM takes the biscuit. 
 

Apart from that the 12z are brilliant . Gem I love ❤️ 

74EBC013-42B1-4EA1-98A6-A69AB1933804.png

19E62F46-48BE-4EE3-84F4-BE1632F6B036.png

A230AC78-362A-4BF3-97F7-32DC2EE56649.png

1BE5FF19-77FA-4A67-8535-0CA69FBFC7D6.png

2393B5EB-84ED-46FE-BE75-4737603E1FDF.png

C7CF6DEA-82CF-4F47-8CBC-2984F63E2618.png

LOL even the insane GEM has it slightly marginal in my locale next Saturday - sleet again!

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
11 minutes ago, DCee said:

ECM was the last to see the cold in December too so not doing very well this year. It'll align with the others but only before the others move slightly toward it...

Cold in December?

Did I miss something?

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

Still big difference between ECM and GFS,hard to understand why ECM is not keen on northern blocking 

untill perhaps day 10.Very good watching but with Met office backing high pressure to the north/northeast,

I would have to lean towards GFS/GEM but all is possible with weather.All will be revealed in the next 

couple of days or so.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM will probably get there in the end but the south really does struggle all run, though still probably several snow events for those in the Midlands and north.

So for all those who are hoping the eCM is wrong, one nugget of hope from my observation over many years

It does not cope well with cutoff lows that get left in the flow. More often than not it spins them in place for too long instead of ejecting them eastwards. I've observed this in about the last 15 years of tropics watching where such features can make a huge impact on tracks and its a well known left bias that the Americans see alot, and I have no doubt it applies here as well.

Conversely the GFS is often a little too quick, which if you look at the ensembles you can kind of see that in action. The OP mind you looks more reasonable to me.

So where does that leave us. I'm suggesting that I don't thin the LP is just going to sit and sit over us like the ECM is suggesting. Not to say its totally wrong, but its taking way too long to shift the LP out of the way which then allows it to connect with whatever is going on in the Atlantic and basically shuts the door for alot of the south when it comes to snow chances. Doesn't really damage the norths chances though.

So the ECM may not be just a 'bin' run per say as it is a plausable outcome, BUT it is very much on the far end in terms of what a realistic solution looks like, in much the same way as some of the GFS ensembles clearing an easterly by Wednesday are too quick.

EDIT - I agree with Chino btw, the ECM post 240hrs has a real solid look to me, I think it'd get there in the end! Just another 3-5 day wait is not what we want now.

Best post I've read today.

When the ECM wants to grind things to a halt, and the GFS wants to push things along, the answer is often somewhere in the middle.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

image.thumb.png.9079611dac8579671ccc886bb030154f.png

Look at that agreement from the 2nd - 6th , surely , just surely ................................

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Cold in December?

Did I miss something?

End of December.

image.thumb.png.a5d84c26764706d4b9b3be190e43ea33.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever Mother Nature cares to throw my way
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Think we are better off looking for signs from wildlife or seaweed than using the EC for guidance on the week ahead. Honestly...

The ECM is unfortunately always correct. Especially when you cross reference its outputs with the Beeb and MetO extended outlooks, which tend to be aligned with the ECM out to 240.
I spent many years running the UK Stormtrack Topic on the GPS Speedsurfing Website , with the primary objective of calling off Speedsailing events here in the UK, the ECM / MetO have always been the form horse and tend to verify more often than other models such as the GFS .. .as you would well know mate

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