Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[BARRY]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

If the models stay the same, there will be a red warning for Scotland eventually.

Interesting times ahead, as long as we don't get a back track.

 

[Weathizard]

It’s also worth noting all 3 models aren’t actually massively different, how quickly that low clears is absolutely crucial, it’s a minute difference that leads to big differences as if it doesn’t clear quick enough we end up with the pattern going over the top and ending too far west and north dragging milder air up from the south at the same time. 
 

It’s another example of why easterlies are like the scarlet pimpernel, we’ve seen easterlies go up in smoke at T72 let alone day 5

[MJB]

Rob on TWO has made a valid point about the USA 

Scrolling through the NH view from 72 to 144 hours you can see how the cold over the US gives the jet a kick which then causes the low to phase with the one over France and derails everything.

 

[Neilsouth]

37 minutes ago, topo said:

I believe GFS is way wrong here.. It tries as always to overcomplicate things.. Stay simple as ECM and UKMO

It also has a habbit of blowing up intense dart board low pressure systems... How many times have people said this?

[chris55]

Seems GFS just had the Operational and P1 mixed up lol

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by chris55

[Jason M]

Just had a quick scan through the GEFS at 144 and they are much better than the set last night. I think it’s enough of a move back to say that for the northern 80 per cent of the uk your okay. Main doubt is still around the far south.

last night some of the ensembles literally just cancelled the whole spell for everyone. One of them had rain over all but the Scottish mountains tops. 
 

If we were to meet half way between where gfs is now and the others we would be okay imho. Hopefully we still go the full ecm though!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Food for thought.. current warming still perhaps ongoing...Even though there are signs of an uptick after the warming,the affects could be felt at the surface for quite some time yet.

Courtesy of Marco P

[Buzz]

28 minutes ago, MJB said:

The Para ? Why would I do that when they have put it's release back months ..............what does that tell you

 

It tells me that people need to read up on why this has happened, please see the following post and the page that it links to:

 

[Troubleatmill]

Looking through the ECM postage stamps for the 9th (Next Tues 00hrs) i can see only 6 of the 50 ensembles that fail to to get the -6hpa line over the south coast. Comparing this to the GEFS at the same time is stark. Where the average for London is just -3.9hpa. Cant help but be concerned when the GEFS starts losing ensembles members rather than start finding them - especially fairly close to an event, but the ECM is fully (nearly) onboard, lets hope the verification champion the ECM is on its game.    

Edited February 2, 2021 by Beano

[johnholmes]

For info for those who may be interested

This Fax chart link now again has the UK Met 500 mb and surface predictions for two further days than its T120 Fax.

This means we can now compare UK and ECMWF 500 mb model charts or 144 and 168h. Quite useful at times. The links to EC is on my post earlier for those who may want to save the links.

Repeated here for each of them

UK Fax list=

UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis - org

WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG

---

UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts

 

ECMWF list=

http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif

and another link into ECMWF charts

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/

[johnholmes]

4 minutes ago, Beano said:

Looking through the ECM postage stamps for the 9th (Next Tues 00hrs) i can see only 6 of the 50 ensembles that fail to to get the -6hpa line over the south coast. Comparing this to the GEFS at the same time is stark. Where the average for London is just -3.9hpa. Cant help but be concerned when the GEFS starts losing ensembles members rather than start finding them - especially fairly close to an event, but the ECM is fully (nearly) onboard, lets hope the verification champion the ECM is on its game.    

Hpa?

do you mean the 850 mb temperatures?

[Cold Winter Night]

I think it's been quite a while since the morning runs needed 19 pages of discussion here, so that's a good thing in itself.

We are in such a good position now. Last year we were looking in deep FI to see if there were perhaps some tentative early signals of some pacific forcing that could possibly lead to more favourable conditions in 4 weeks...

Now we are looking at day 5 charts and we have:

EC Op + EPS: cold spell arriving.
UKMO: Agrees.
GEM: Agrees.

GFS is poor, but differs with the rest on its known weakness: overdoing a low.

Usually I am not into micro-analyzing charts, but I make an exception this time.
Because these charts below are only 24h (EC 0z and GFS 0z) and 18h (GFS 6z) away.
The GFS has already backtracked towards EC between 0z and 6z with the depth, size and shape of that low at just 24h/18h away!
It still is lower, but I think this movement towards EC will continue on the 12z.

About EC moving towards GFS in the past few days:

Yes, that happened, but that was at a different timeframe, plus EC behaved erratically. Its poor runs were poor for another reason every time. Now it is steady, and in tandem with both EPS and the very steady UKMO. My money is on the cold side.

[Troubleatmill]

10 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Hpa?

do you mean the 850 mb temperatures?

Sorry John, yes, although they are two terms of the same value 850hpa, 850mb, forgive me if I'm wrong I'm no old pro like you

Edited February 2, 2021 by Beano

[MJB]

9 minutes ago, Buzz said:

 

It tells me that people need to read up on why this has happened, please see the following post and the page that it links to:

 

That doesn't explain why you say back the Para over the Op .........well it does it's because it has widespread snow , but its not the right reason

[Snowman31]

When does the 06 ECMF come out? 

[Don]

32 minutes ago, MJB said:

Rob on TWO has made a valid point about the USA 

Scrolling through the NH view from 72 to 144 hours you can see how the cold over the US gives the jet a kick which then causes the low to phase with the one over France and derails everything.

 

Just incase, I suggest everyone opens their closest window when viewing this evening's charts, ready to throw out the laptops, phones, pads etc!

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Just incase, I suggest everyone opens their closest window when viewing this evening's charts, ready to throw out the laptops, phones, pads etc!

or a box of tissues

[Heisenberg]

Any idea what model the Groundhog uses as he has predicted 6 more weeks of winter? Cant be the GFS....

[TSNWK]

I’ve been here 12 years, and never have I seen so much riding on one pesky shortwave clearing through ok – I mean if we get ECM then winter 2021 will be viewed as a classic for all, even the south east if we get a week of what it was showing this morning – when I think of way back to autumn, the early global indications on the Strat, the Russian high, MJO, AMP, probably other macro teleconnections and it all boils down to one tinny winy low pressure system between a classic that might be mentioned in the same sentence as 91 / 2010 / 2018 down here or just another 47/63 winter at day 10 on our screens.

 

I’ve cleared my calendar from 3:30 – see you then

[supernova]

20 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

When does the 06 ECMF come out? 

For public consumption, ECMF rolls twice a day, 0z and 12z. Between 6pm and 7pm for the next run. ICON first of this afternoon's runs (sometime after 3pm), then UKMO and the GFS a bit later along with the GEM. No doubt someone can give you exact times but that's a rough and ready guide.

Edited February 2, 2021 by supernova

[Froze were the Days]

53 minutes ago, MJB said:

Yes and I hope you are right , but (we) weather forums do have a habit of jumping from one ship to another as it shows the cold , we were all tipping our hats to GFS when ECM showed signs of joining the party , I have a feeling a repeat is on the way .

Changed your view yet?...were we all tipping our hats to the GFS? hopefully the ecm will have a better handling on this than the American GFS but it really is on a knife edge, certainly would rather have ECM/UKMO vs GFS. I think this evolution will run and run until the mists clear and this could be right up to 48hrs or so.

[jam]

1 hour ago, MJB said:

The Para ? Why would I do that when they have put it's release back months ..............what does that tell you

The data inputted is fine and of a much greater quantity than GFS its a testing issue needing to run over 30 days and the orginial test stopped so they need to hit 30 days. Nothing to do with quality of the data output. When spending multi millions of dollars it needs to be spot on

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, supernova said:

ECMF rolls twice a day, 0z and 12z. Between 6pm and 7pm for the next run. ICON first of this afternoon's runs (sometime after 3pm), then UKMO and the GFS with the GEM somewhere after 3.30pm too. No doubt someone can give you exact times but that's a rough and ready guide.

ECM does have a 6z and a 18z - which is behind a pay wall I believe.

[goosey007]

13 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

When does the 06 ECMF come out? 

just the 0z and 12z this model .....6am & 6pm

[Snowman31]

1 minute ago, supernova said:

ECMF rolls twice a day, 0z and 12z. Between 6pm and 7pm for the next run. ICON first of this afternoon's runs (sometime after 3pm), then UKMO and the GFS with the GEM somewhere after 3.30pm too. No doubt someone can give you exact times but that's a rough and ready guide.

Thank you. I meant the 6z ECM inbetween the 00z and the 12z ones. I heard there were 4 runs a day?