Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Notty]

Just now, Drifter said:

Still rubbish imo but at least an improvement. 

A move in the right direction ?

[Liam J]

ECM 00z v GFS 06z for Sunday morning. That’s pretty good agreement, good to see the GFS backtracking from its 00z. 
GFS 06z 

ECM 00z

Edited February 2, 2021 by DisruptiveGust

[frosty ground]

That low still being dragged into the Atlantic, cuts of the south from the cold then drags mild air with it across England.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Interesting this one! For the first time in my life, I actually want to see an eastward shift of that African plume! As opposed to summer. Nevertheless, with such a collision of an extreme temperature gradient, there’s potential for what could end up in a Nor’Easter like snowstorm! 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Oh dear.  I'm on phone.. what's happening beyond 120

Its improved early on and gone towards ecm but now its gona go default mode cos it cant handle situation!!as always lol!!

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I think this thread would be much more use to everyone if people made considered posts based on the output and not knee jerk reactions to individual bits of a chart projecting what could happen 5 days off or what they think is going to happen. 

[chionomaniac]

A lot of posts saying nothing at all and have been hidden or moved to this thread

 

[Battleground Snow]

Para is better than the OP, and more inline with the ECM and ukmo at 114

[nick sussex]

The GFS is now backtracking so a good sign ,but  because it doesn’t keep the shortwave over the se separated from the upstream troughing the phase stops the cold coming sw. If that ejects cleanly then that makes a big difference .

[radiohead]

Those little lows are causing havoc on each run.  06Z GFS is both an upgrade for the north and a downgrade for the south at  this point...

I feel like we are still days away from knowing what will happen. Far too much uncertainty with these lows. Everything has to fall into place exactly right to get that easterly feed.

[sheikhy]

Expecting backtracks from this useless gfs from here on in!!!

[Gowon]

 It's improved a bit but it's still rubbish for us.. Maybe it'll be better down the line. 

[Notty]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Para is better than the OP, and more inline with the ECM and ukmo at 114

And pretty consistent with it's 00z run up to T+132 also 

[Battleground Snow]

Almost a carbon copy of the Ukmo on the para at 132... Cold is fully in

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Para is better than the OP, and more inline with the ECM and ukmo at 114

 

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS is now backtracking so a good sign ,but  because it doesn’t keep the shortwave over the se separated from the upstream troughing the phase stops the cold coming sw. If that ejects cleanly then that makes a big difference .

120 hours who would you back? 

[Tim Bland]

What do we know about winter lows shown on the GfS 5 days out?....They almost always end up weaker than shown and further south. with this in mind and viewing all the models,  I’m still confident of an easterly setting in by Sunday with snow for many

[Methuselah]

Improvement? What improvement! Some quite bewildering claims being made, by some, this morning...?

    

[Guest]

GFS sticking to its guns. The theme is north south divide. 

[ICE COLD]

The para says are show u how too do it brother

[Malarky]

So as I understand it, we have 2 routes to cold and 1 route to mild.

Cold route one, the limpet low sinks south and Iberia doesn't throw a crazy physics-defying low our way.

 

Cold route two, the limpet low has some wheatabix and sticks around, drawing cold air in on the north flank and eventually let's the easterly flow in.

 

Mild route, the limpet low is a good boy and sinks southward, but Iberia conjures up a bonkers low and the party's over.

 

Or, a seagull does a poo in the Atlantic and it's game over.

 

How am I doing?

Edited February 2, 2021 by Malarky

[IDO]

It is when we get into the more reliable that small spoiler features pop up that did not exist post-d8 that can just spoil an easterly that is so finely balanced. The low at T78 did not exist on the gfs 0z yesterday:

The low at t126 was not there either, it did not spin off the low (trough) to our south:

gem>

The first low delays the cold by 24+ and the second one scuppers the easterly. It joins with the westerly undercut and moves north. 

The first low seems very likely now but we need the second one to move east/se quicker and avoid the link up, similar to the gem. On to the 12z...

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, General Cluster said:

Improvement? What improvement! Some quite bewildering claims being made, by some, this morning...?

    

It's an improvement in the key 96-120 timeframe

[Guest]

Just now, General Cluster said:

Improvement? What improvement! Some quite bewildering claims being made, by some, this morning...?

    

I agree, I can't see any improvement, its trending further from ECM with each run.

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Improvement? What improvement! Some quite bewildering claims being made, by some, this morning...?

    

Ever so slightly over to our north earlier but still ends up the same though. 

[radiohead]

06Z GFS P is so much better than the OP. A wide range of solutions on offer!