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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looks like a very brief cold spell over the weekend with it turning milder from Thursday next week on the BBC.

Too much energy in the Atlantic and a flimsy ridge wont stop the mild.

That’s about a 6 day cold spell more so up here but we can’t really complain better than the bog standard mild SW winters we normally get 

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That made giggle !

I went to a Man City Bournemouth game in the late 1980s ,City led 3-0 in the second half, it finished 3-3!

Now I'm having terrible thoughts!!

I'm a west ham season ticket holder. I recall being 3-0 up and losing 4-3 to Wimbledon.  I'm also sure there are some spurs fans about for this season so it's possible the GFS us right.. but boy we will remember for years if it is..

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Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
1 hour ago, JoeShmoe said:

Whether it’s right or wrong the GFS could give copious amounts to snow to some parts of the NE UK. Would be snowing there every day for a week starting today ... 

Edinburgh is in prime position to be buried this weekend/Mon/Tues next week

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
7 minutes ago, DCee said:

Another battle of the models I see!

ECM will likely follow the GFS, then both back track a little. So in conclusion no Easterly looks like a very possible outcome, more than 50:50.

Just looking at the FAX chart update to see if that can give us any indication as to how this might play out. 

T+84 Centre of Low just off N.Wales 

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GFS + 84 for comparison

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GFS has the centre of the LP ever so slightly closer to Ireland and a Tad further South, but tbh the differences are so slight so no real conclusion I think can be drawn yet by the FAX update. 

The ECM, however has this Low much further East than both the UKMO and GFS at T+84 so for me when the 06Z GFS run comes out I'll be looking to see how much Eastward movement this initial low makes before it sinks South as an indicator as to how it might unfold thereafter. 

You can also see by the Orientation of the Low pressure system, in the GFS it's like a fist poking up through the UK, where as the ECM it's more like an egg falling backwards towards Ireland and when you look at it in that way you can almost imagine it like an egg being forced to topple and crush as the High Pressure above it sinks south forcing the Jet south with it and not allowing the LP across France to find it's way North to sit over the UK A'la GFS style

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I see GEM has got the orange and red crayons out again ⛄

C28D3C12-73D6-4A0B-A75B-A6006AB45424.png

I see that little tiny bit of white indicating nuffinx over Manchester again, big surprise there.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I should let you know the Crunchy Snow and Ice Day Committee meeting has now been delayed !

This was supposed to take place at 10.30 am this morning with conclusions published by midday ! 

In the meantime as Chairman of that I’ve authorized staff at the NSTC ( Nick Sussex Trauma Center) to go on emergency stand by and have cancelled all leave until further notice ! 

Let's hope you can give consideration to standing down NTSC by 11:00 this morning and firm up the room booking for the crunchy snow and Ice day committee at 7:00pm sharp this evening.

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL

In the meantime, will we see warnings for possible snow next weekend as the low pulls away and cold air tucks in behind?

 

image.thumb.png.a304394efd8d9ab1fb617b14107213a4.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales

Put it this way ....if and big IF the ECM is wrong on this now the way it has played it out, I will have lost total confidence in it in these cold/very synoptic scenarios going forward. The way GFS has modelled it would more a acceptable and logical turn of events ..ie.... what is more unlogical .... 

Outcome 1 GFS FI easterly SEMI FI easterly T120 no easterly T 96 easterly

Outcome 2 GFS FI easterly SEMI FI easterly T120 no easterly T 96 no easterly 

Outcome 3 ECM FI NO easterly SEMI FI NO easterly T120 easterly T96 NO easterly  ! 

Outcome 4 ECM FI NO easterly SEMI FI NO easterly T120 easterly T96 easterly

This Sounds contradictory to my earlier post ....but i do think the gfs is incorrect as its most logical to me from the other outcomes thus outcome 4 is most likely  .........especially as the ECM is touted as the king model! interested to see if right think I will know by this afternoons 12z runs

Edited by goosey007
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

50% hardly constitutes confident !!

That's confident for me, especially when most of the time we have zero chance of deep cold!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I see that little tiny bit of white indicating nuffinx over Manchester again, big surprise there.

Yep.

Experience says the clouds dump their loads over Saddleworth and then tend to weaken on their westward journey...

If EC is right I'd be surprised if I didn't do well.

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

Morning all seems that the GFS is doing an ECM all change,Matt Hugo decided bin GFS 

very strong decision all credit to him for risking his reputation.Hope he is 100% correct 

my take he has my backing,might as well go down the drain together.

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Posted
  • Location: North Norfolk
  • Location: North Norfolk

It seems difficult to know which model is leading the way.  It seems to me GFS and ECM have flipped and either solution is still plausible. It’s all on a knife edge, more especially for the south.

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Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
17 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

That’s about a 6 day cold spell more so up here but we can’t really complain better than the bog standard mild SW winters we normally get 

And the BBC will probably have got it wrong. The models are struggling with the evolution for this weekend. The GFS is having a wobble now after the ECM came round to it's way of thinking so I don't think next Thursday is up for discussion yet. And as you say, better than many big standard winters. BBC forecast was for sleet or rain last night where I live but woke up to....

20210202_080556.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
6 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Morning all seems that the GFS is doing an ECM all change,Matt Hugo decided bin GFS 

very strong decision all credit to him for risking his reputation.Hope he is 100% correct 

my take he has my backing,might as well go down the drain together.

I think we're all prepared to go down that drain on here

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Posted
  • Location: Diss, South Norfolk
  • Location: Diss, South Norfolk

This happens every time, gfs spots the easterly, ecm says no, then ecm picks it up, mod hype sets in, then gfs drops it, then at t72 ecm and met drop it too.  Then you get the usual depressed posts.    The charts are not worth looking at past 72hrs. Don't give me the old "trends" nonsense.     Personally I'm waiting till t48 before I get remotely interested.

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Posted
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
6 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Morning all seems that the GFS is doing an ECM all change,Matt Hugo decided bin GFS 

very strong decision all credit to him for risking his reputation.Hope he is 100% correct 

my take he has my backing,might as well go down the drain together.

comes to something when somebody is "risking their reputation" for expressing a professional opinion in one specific area...

I can't remember such short term GFS divergence from such a solid-looking ECM mean. Fingers crossed for c.10am that the GFS retreats though I doubt it will be a sudden flip. Not sure if a halfway house even exists for this 'problem'....

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Amazed at the output this morning. The GFS and GFSP plus ensembles were so poor last night that I just assumed it was game over due to the timescales involved. 

rationally you just can’t see the METO being wrong at that timescale especially when backed up by pretty much every other model and if it were the GFS shouting cold and everything else saying no at day 5 we would just assume the GFS to be wrong. Given the short time scales now involved some comfort can also be taken that the ECM came out later than the GFS

logic says the GFS is wrong but we all know that in the UK the wise gambler always bets on mild!
 

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
4 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

This happens every time, gfs spots the easterly, ecm says no, then ecm picks it up, mod hype sets in, then gfs drops it, then at t72 ecm and met drop it too.  Then you get the usual depressed posts.    The charts are not worth looking at past 72hrs. Don't give me the old "trends" nonsense.     Personally I'm waiting till t48 before I get remotely interested.

I agree - the output is only as good as the worst case model usually for the British Isles

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
6 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

This happens every time, gfs spots the easterly, ecm says no, then ecm picks it up, mod hype sets in, then gfs drops it, then at t72 ecm and met drop it too.  Then you get the usual depressed posts.    The charts are not worth looking at past 72hrs. Don't give me the old "trends" nonsense.     Personally I'm waiting till t48 before I get remotely interested.

If this happens every time, have we ever had an easterly?

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Obviously the GFS 12z is going to be off a lot of interest. Two ways of looking at it. 

 

eye-strain-tired-eyes.jpg

1800ss_webmd_rf_warm_washcloth.jpg

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

Yep, just from looking at all other models, the met office forecast with all of their extra data etc etc. You'd have to think the GFS is wrong. But if it is somehow right it's going to leave the ECM, METO with egg all over their faces!

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