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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T120 compared to GFS, low much weaker, and much more separated from the low in the atlantic.

9D706687-59C4-4934-AB8F-59D82076BD2A.thumb.png.0b9a04567c71255d42b1a328042ef512.pngE2D835BD-7C99-47CD-9602-DFC5039A324A.thumb.png.a04a48c58a751dd2f23e559fb711fc00.png

Rest of NH profile fine, but that wasn’t in doubt.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

ECM looks a beaut at day 5, jet deflected south I’d be surprised if we could find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory here on... then again, we are cursed on this island  

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
2 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

That’s what I mentioned yesterday the Atlantic has powered up with the winter storm on the USA east coast and sending lows streaming across towards us 

Looks like a very brief cold spell over the weekend with it turning milder from Thursday next week on the BBC.

Too much energy in the Atlantic and a flimsy ridge wont stop the mild.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

It’s really notable the Greenland blocking wasn’t there on 12z was centred to NE of Iceland.

E9E3E7DC-0F93-4BF6-B9B3-24C45744C3C6.thumb.png.26d6aa0c93ef3c8ead03936a978726ba.pngC7740CE4-F604-4D0E-A48E-CB0B6258CB2C.thumb.png.e2635a088eee9a027e7f17a5f99c6e34.png

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looks like a very brief cold spell over the weekend with it turning milder from Thursday next week on the BBC.

Too much energy in the Atlantic and a flimsy ridge wont stop the mild.

Thats 10 days away! Brave call, particularly with experiance of knowing how hard it is for the atlantic to make inroads once the cold is in situ.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

ECM looking absolutely fine this morning. Stronger blocking to the north and Greenland, very much like a lot of the anomaly charts...

234FD7EB-D153-4374-918C-B6FC28166310.thumb.gif.cac25619adb1e58933d779899aa88163.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looks like a very brief cold spell over the weekend with it turning milder from Thursday next week on the BBC.

Too much energy in the Atlantic and a flimsy ridge wont stop the mild.

Thursday next week they say..  wow we had over 300 geeks with microscopes at 4.00 am this morning assessing runs for this weekend and still receiving mixed reviews

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
5 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looks like a very brief cold spell over the weekend with it turning milder from Thursday next week on the BBC.

Too much energy in the Atlantic and a flimsy ridge wont stop the mild.

That'll be the weak ridge that stretches all the across the Russian arctic and Greenland will it?

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, KTtom said:

Thats 10 days away! Brave call, particularly with experiance of knowing how hard it is for the atlantic to make inroads once the cold is in situ.

Never mind that BBC video forecasts just copy the latest ECM run. I don’t know how people still don’t realise this.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If anything, the EC has trended to stronger blocking whilst the GFS has gone the opposite way. A real dichotomy.

Over the years, the amount of times we’ve had one model singing from the cold hymn sheet, all the others finally follow, only for the exact model that’s been consistently cold to then flip, it’s really quite strange actually. If it wasn’t a computerised weather model you’d think it was trolling us all purposely.

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)

So its GFS vs the rest this morning.  UKMO looks great and if anything the ECM is doubling down on our Easterly prospects this morning.  The 144 chart looks fantastic!  ❄

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Beautiful EC at D5...like ICON, Pacific ridging is bolstering the blocking, cutting right through the Arctic.

You’ve been through every emotion in the last two hours. This is the rollercoaster of all rollercoasters 

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If anything, the EC has trended to stronger blocking whilst the GFS has gone the opposite way. A real dichotomy.

It’s a big concern if GFS picks a different trend. How many times have we seen the other two follow the GFS ?

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