Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    11 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Well Helen Willets thinks -12c uppers will bring temps of 3c and above

     

    BFTP

    Or she might not be expecting those uppers?

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    9 minutes ago, spayne said:

    oh dear.!!

    Looks OK to me. DP / 2m temps around 0C, 850s at -9C, and a few cms of snow??

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    44 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    UKMO 144 for the SE...

    UKMO.thumb.png.b5ec07c8affe9e12992cc00c944db9ae.png

    Says gfs up at the no? Above 2nd half of the picture

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    5 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

    Says gfs up at the no? Above 2nd half of the picture

    How strange!,i def clicked on the UKMO...

    Untitled.thumb.png.a5dcc30bdf6069e519e5a4d530064374.png

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    14 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    ECM 18z has the low centered just north of Newcastle at 72 hours and a tad weaker than the GFS which has it just west of Galway, make of that what you will, but a fairly big difference in location.

    Not sure what you’re seeing the 12z was centred more NE no real difference really this isn’t trouble maker low either that’s in Spain at that time. GFS alone with quicker easterly on Saturday that drops low south from Ireland. 

    B1710CC2-0F5F-4F7F-BA37-FD5608BBE3FA.thumb.png.0c2b699ab59dd23fbd0c92cfcac506a7.png8A583FB7-4190-4926-AC43-FA652AE2B35E.thumb.png.f957a940275f48c68cc5cb55f6288eb5.png

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    18 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Not sure what you’re seeing the 12z was centred more NE no real difference really this isn’t trouble maker low either that’s in Spain at that time. GFS alone with quicker easterly on Saturday that drops low south from Ireland. 

    B1710CC2-0F5F-4F7F-BA37-FD5608BBE3FA.thumb.png.0c2b699ab59dd23fbd0c92cfcac506a7.png8A583FB7-4190-4926-AC43-FA652AE2B35E.thumb.png.f957a940275f48c68cc5cb55f6288eb5.png

    Yes you are correct, it was just an observation, the low dropping from Ireland into Biscay seems to give the system energy when it comes back north towards the UK, where as on the ECM 18z I don't think this would happen.

    Looking at the GFS 18z again it does seem an unusual path for a system to take, look how fast it moves from Biscay up to the north sea in just 12 hours

    132-515.gif

    144-515.gif

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Icon is good, slower but avoids any GFS calamity. 
     

    Low centred over northern Italy 

    Edit: Even at the early hours of 3:26AM I was beaten 😂

    Edited by Snowman.
    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

    Icon is good, slower but avoids any GFS calamity. 
     

    Low centred over northern Italy 

    Edit: Even at the early hours of 3:26AM I was beaten 😂

    I'm hoping to see alot of people for the icon run.

    @Mike Poole promised us an appearance.

    156 is COLD and nothing like the GFS

    iconnh-0-156 (3).png

    iconnh-1-156 (1).png

    • Like 7
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    ICON excellent at this point- Greenland heights being bolstered by Pacific ridging cutting into the heart of the Arctic-

    image.thumb.png.519e27489736702315b8b858f71b14be.png

    Truly beautiful run that, lows sliding very much a classic memorable cold spell.

     

    If it comes off

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Icon just gets better low approaching SW, would look be a snow maker!

    image.thumb.png.07e59c755a93e4c4192e62ef1a2c51a1.png

    Edited by Snowman.
    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Totton Hampshire
  • Location: Totton Hampshire

    Icon takes its time but gets there in the end. Good to see its not following the gfs 18z route 

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
    7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    ICON excellent at this point- Greenland heights being bolstered by Pacific ridging cutting into the heart of the Arctic-

    image.thumb.png.519e27489736702315b8b858f71b14be.png

    But will it give Crewe any snow. Or do we need more of a Battleground set up.

    The 2018 BFTE wasn't good for us tbh mate, as compared to the minus 15s in 2010, it wasn't even that cold. We need either a 2010 cold spell of minus 15s or a 1996 Snow event.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, Andypvfc said:

    But will it give Crewe any snow. Or do we need more of a Battleground set up.

    The 2018 BFTE wasn't good for us tbh mate, as compared to the minus 15s in 2010, it wasn't even that cold. We need either a 2010 cold spell of minus 15s or a 1996 Snow event.

    2010 was exceptional because it hit close to the winter solstice. It allowed for maximum radiative cooling. 2018 came at the end of Feb and by that point, the sun was higher in the sky and the land took more cooling overnight and had less time to do so. It's the reason why I'd rather get severe cold late December/early January- that's where the records will be broken.

    There will be the chance of snow for us if we can get the wind strong enough and/or any organised troughs from the east.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
    2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    2010 was exceptional because it hit close to the winter solstice. It allowed for maximum radiative cooling. 2018 came at the end of Feb and by that point, the sun was higher in the sky and the land took more cooling overnight and had less time to do so. It's the reason why I'd rather get severe cold late December/early January- that's where the records will be broken.

    There will be the chance of snow for us if we can get the wind strong enough and/or any organised troughs from the east.

    Cheers mate, only just started getting into the Weather forums, so never really looked at charts / runs before, so def won't pretend to understand at the mo 🤣.

    I just like to know what is the best time to start my shift as a cabbie, without getting Stuck on Kidsgrove and Keele Banks 🤣

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GFS and UKMO at T72:

    000D281A-E45D-43A0-AB1B-359ABF7AE649.thumb.png.9902496847e43f6a98f4133b672dec19.pngCC54BDAA-2C6B-4F1C-BE98-FAD43430FCB3.thumb.gif.58cb5bec6841be92766f0072ed524fa8.gif

    More dissimilar than I would expect at that range, the roller coaster starts again.

    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    GFS and UKMO at T72:

    000D281A-E45D-43A0-AB1B-359ABF7AE649.thumb.png.9902496847e43f6a98f4133b672dec19.pngCC54BDAA-2C6B-4F1C-BE98-FAD43430FCB3.thumb.gif.58cb5bec6841be92766f0072ed524fa8.gif

    More dissimilar than I would expect at that range, the roller coaster starts again.

    I think they look almost identical!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Beautiful Icon 0z run -10c to -12c uppers widely 

    Screenshot_20210202-035334_Samsung Internet.jpg

     

    Screenshot_20210202-035701_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210202-035707_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Edited by Kentspur
    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
     Share

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...