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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
5 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Everyone binned the GFS in 2018 when it did a similar thing. A few days later look what happened. Fine to be wary but brave to bin it. 

What happened..? I forgot ?‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

That’s the control mucks 

Had a brain fart. Post removed thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
1 minute ago, Storm Emma said:

Not everyone lives in South East England.

But many do. Don't worry though because there are plenty of the GEFS that get more of the country in on the 'cold rain action'.   

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Posted
  • Location: Cold Rain City, Essex
  • Location: Cold Rain City, Essex

After all the flips back and forth it feels like it will be a miracle if we pull this off.

My fear is the SE will tap the warmer air somehow. Just enough to spoil the party down here, 1 or 2 degrees in it. Could still be a classic further north though.

Edited by Robbie Coldrain
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The mean is better at 144 than the op 

30C0CA1D-5E1B-401E-B0AC-B1AAA95B2F79.png

AB536D13-51E7-4E0C-ACBD-46447FC0B5D3.png

The mean 18z 156 v's 12z 162...

gensnh-31-1-156.thumb.png.dafe81cbfc7dd44c21564a01dca06402.pnggensnh-31-1-162.thumb.png.5a4c2a179950ab8896f947e664a9d3f5.png

has more troughs cutting SE under the bigger block to the NW,really good mean that.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, Don said:

What makes it more concerning though is the ensembles are offering support for this scenario?  Another nerve shredding day to come tomorrow!

The ensembles are prone to the same dynamic issues as the operational will be, since effectively its running the same data, etc.

The time to be much more concerned would be if ICON, ECM or UKMO suddenly start to blow up that low, since they are naturally more conservative models in these types of set-ups.

Anyone on the north or east side of any such low as the GFS shows, indeed of any model show, is going to end up getting alot of snow. In the 18z GFS its anywhere from E.Scotland down through N.England and then down towards the wash and maybe E.A.

Further west would ironically also want a weaker low as a weaker low won't have such a tight frontal system tucking around the core.

For the SE, horrid run.

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Posted
  • Location: Brigg, North Lincolnshire
  • Location: Brigg, North Lincolnshire
2 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

Maybe not.

But everyone who hasn't seen snow this winter does. 

Didn't realise north lincolnshire and most of low lying east yorks was in the south east. Might explain my geography A level result!

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Interestingly the mean at 168 looks a little like tonight's ECM.  Now I think we could all get onboard with that!

image.thumb.png.b0d3385db81cfade7048d468e0604c5d.png

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
1 minute ago, Wilkybarkid said:

Didn't realise north lincolnshire and most of low lying east yorks was in the south east. Might explain my geography A level result!

try and take it in the light-hearted manner in which it was intended

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
1 minute ago, Storm Emma said:

But this isn't the south east thread though bit of a strange reply in all honestly, it almost seems like your wishing the rest of us get rain because you might not get any snow in your back garden.

Not what he is saying at all. 
 

simply suggesting that snow chances wise it’s been poor in the south and obviously wants them to experience it.  

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Posted
  • Location: Dorking
  • Location: Dorking
5 minutes ago, Storm Emma said:

Not everyone lives in South East England.

I know it’s shocking isn’t it. As a resident of the British Territory of Montserrat I am frequently dismayed at how this forum doesn’t take into account the current weather conditions on our island either...

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Just now, Storm Emma said:

But this isn't the south east thread though bit of a strange reply in all honestly, it almost seems like your wishing the rest of us get rain because you might not get any snow in your back garden.

Not at all, but the opp is not an outlier against the GEFS. Indeed some take mild air right up into Scotland. Its you that is making it a regional matter. By the morning this might all be a distant memory but this set of GEFS look very very different. If this low blows up as advertised here it won't just be the SE seeing rain. That's not wishing it on anyone its just plain fact.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
7 minutes ago, Storm Emma said:

Not everyone lives in South East England.

Not everyone does, but I dont think people want a 3 day flirt with cold.

But the further north that low moves the less time you have under a cold easterly flow and the shorter your cold spell becomes.

12z image.thumb.png.4b4b13ffa2b89a02fc84f32c96470990.png  18z image.thumb.png.53baae7955f5293080e4d02ff9fbc4a1.png

Dont see why location has anything to do here? Surely a better outcome would be to keep the easterly feed going for as long as possible and a low moving north through the north sea is far from it.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Worth bearing in mind for the GFS dartboard low to verify, it first needs to be right with the decaying and sinking low at the day 3/4 range. Worth pointing this out as we have this on the parallel.

image.thumb.png.1acd2c0b3225cc45e1e5e0511bf62e28.png

Starting to stick more over the U.K. like the ECM/UKMO/GEM solutions.

That said I would rule out something quite wild developing in the latter stages of this coming weekend given the depth of cold over Scandinavia forming and the warmth over SE Europe. The best solutions so far have low pressure towards the low countries with a tighter squeeze on the isobars thanks to stronger ridging to our north.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

I can't post that EC is too much lol...

Trawled through the masses of posts to find this....I wanted to read NWS response to the ECM....made my night Lol.  
Folks in SE don’t worry about snow chances at this range...if I liked a flutter amI know what I’d be backing at this stage

 BFTP 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, Vadoseflame said:

I must add that Marco from Twitter does believe the low causing issues will eventually slip south and allow the cold to flood in❄️

Indeed but the concern is that it encounters the warmer air from the south and deepens which will bring it back north ....anyway, it looks odd 

hate to look beyond what could be a v cold few days but more  evidence that the Atlantic barrage could well come unstuck against the cold ridge to our east and disrupt se ......

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK

Bit of an overreaction by some members mainly newer, regarding south and the reasons why they’re getting the lime light ..

simple answer this low that’s causing model headaches - depending on its path it’ll either be good for the south or allow less cold air in the mix and make things more marginal.  Quite a few of us in this weather forum haven’t seen a flake or had decent snow like others..

it’s just showing what the models are saying that’s all.

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
6 minutes ago, Storm Emma said:

But this isn't the south east thread though bit of a strange reply in all honestly, it almost seems like your wishing the rest of us get rain because you might not get any snow in your back garden.

Emma what’s your take on the models ,? I agree we don’t all live in the southeast however the changes in the current output affects the southeast most drastically so it’s the main cause of discussion at the moment . If we had a warm sector crossing the midlands I’m sure it will be the height of the chat . It may annoy you but just bypass it . Cheers Mark from southeast England .

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

What we’ve seen over the last 24-36 hours the GEFS have got increasingly twitchy meanwhile the EPS has gone other way and has only trended colder. I know where I place my faith especially at these “short” lead times.
 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Indeed but the concern is that it encounters the warmer air from the south and deepens which will bring it back north ....anyway, it looks odd 

hate to look beyond what could be a v cold few days but more  evidence that the Atlantic barrage could well come unstuck against the cold ridge to our east and disrupt se ......

 

Not worried especially as MetO are confident easterly or north easterly winds will be the feature and it’ll be cold over the UK. Seems they aren’t seeing or believing much about less cold air/mild being a feature.

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