Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[sheikhy]

Remember my post from this morning!!well let me bring it up again!!ridge going north into europe cuts off cold flow and we get more air from the med!!more disruption into europe and we get a cleaner arc of cold 850s straight into the uk....

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'm close to dismissing it because its creating a 980mbs dartboard low when no other model is even within the ballpark...ECM about 1000mbs, GEM 1000, UKMO 1000mbs, GFS 980mbs. Odd one out much?

And also because we fully well know what the GFS is like when it comes to overegging LPs.

Now I'm far from dismissing the possibility of the low ending up too far north...however a stronger low by default is going to end up further north due to the center of the fujiwara point being further east and closer to the larger low, which causes it to tuck much tighter into the UK than on the likes of the ECM and UKMO for example.

IMO much like the 12z ECM was, its an extreme solution that IMO has little chance of coming off like that. A weaker 995mbs low in that position. Possible, though it would be less likely to get anywhere near that far north.

 

That makes sense 

[Mark wheeler]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Second one is rain for the south as i can tell from the thicknesses?

I must be reading the charts slightly incorrect as I viewed that last run 18z although marginal still snow for the majority of the southeast . 

[kold weather]

GFS definitely throwing a wobbly tonight, on the ensembles as well it has to be said.

More than before are bringing a LP northwards, some to the extent that event the north of England struggles.

GFS ensembles also powering up that low, though not to same tightness as the operational.

Gotta think the GFS has lost the plot here a little with this LP, as.per.normal.

[Jason M]

Just now, D.V.R said:

That makes sense 

Everyone binned the GFS in 2018 when it did a similar thing. A few days later look what happened. Fine to be wary but brave to bin it. 

[Decemberof2010]

A quick check of some GEFS shows quite the difference in the 850's and where that boundary lies. Expected I suppose but does show the op is just another variation on where that line is

 

[Don]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

GFS definitely throwing a wobbly tonight, on the ensembles as well it has to be said.

More than before are bringing a LP northwards, some to the extent that event the north of England struggles.

GFS ensembles also powering up that low, though not to same tightness as the operational.

Gotta think the GFS has lost the plot here a little with this LP, as.per.normal.

I think the drama is going to continue right up to the last minute here!  Tempted to avoid the models for a few days but will I be able to?!

[Speedbird]

9 minutes ago, jimbo36 said:

Well if all the models are still showing this in 48 hours, then i'll have to set up a stormporn forum page and the first 100 members get a free box of tissues

that's the 12z

[Snowman.]

Mean is now 2 degrees higher in the south than the 12z.

We really need to be careful here.

[ICE COLD]

The mean is better at 144 than the op 

[Bristawl Si]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Control  similarish to the opp   

Drawing up a lot of warm air from Greece, Croatia, etc. Temps forecast to be 20c in Athens at the weekend. So it is poss that low could pack a lot of energy which could explain it's deep nature and propensity to move North.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GeFS 18z mean has the core of the low moving N/NE into SW UK, the 12Z suite had it moving into N Italy for same period.

Could be just run to run variation. TWT.

Yeah its basically that, the 12z suite really isn't all that much different.

The largest difference is just that 18z suite is really going to town with that Iberian low.

Ensembles as well are also going to town, though not quite in the same way.

The good news is so far none of the models (even the progressive GEM) look anything remotely like the GFS. 

For now, nothing more than to keep a watchful eye on it, with the knowledge that it is the GFS, and it has a shocking habit of pulling lows out of its backside that it then has to walk back because its overdone it.

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GeFS 18z mean has the core of the low moving N/NE into SW UK, the 12Z suite had it moving into N Italy for same period.

Could be just run to run variation. TWT.

That’s the control mucks 

[Djdazzle]

 Not looking forward to the morning runs now!

The JMA was also not great earlier.

Hoping it’s a blip.

 

 

[MJB]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

The mean is better at 144 than the op 

Just going to post that at 144 its ok ...........it's hardly rubbish but that's in FI if i'm honest 

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Drawing up a lot of warm air from Greece, Croatia, etc. Temps forecast to be 20c in Athens at the weekend. So it is poss that low could pack a lot of energy which could explain it's deep nature and propensity to move North.

Yep Bris.  Im sure it wont happen like that  but if it did  some areas will see copious amounts of snow    ironicly on the control its those away from the east coast 

[Don]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Mean is now 2 degrees higher in the south than the 12z.

We really need to be careful here.

I hope this isn't going to implode in the next couple of days!

[Mark wheeler]

Ah that’s better normal service is resumed

[frosty ground]

stupidly deep low running up against a ridge out east... bet it slides

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Drawing up a lot of warm air from Greece, Croatia, etc. Temps forecast to be 20c in Athens at the weekend. So it is poss that low could pack a lot of energy which could explain it's deep nature and propensity to move North.

Or its just the GFS being its usual self right?

The big warning flag will be when the ECM or UKMO, two more typically conservative models with such features, also start to blow up 980-985mbs like the GFS is doing.

Maybe tomorrow morning that will happen, remains to be seen!

For now, the GFS is very much utterly on its own on this type of evolution.

[Bristawl Si]

Just now, weirpig said:

Yep Bris.  Im sure it wont happen like that  but if it did  some areas will see copious amounts of snow    ironicly on the control its those away from the east coast 

Could be beneficial for those on the Western side of it (if it happens as modelled).

[Storm Emma]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Mean is now 2 degrees higher in the south than the 12z.

We really need to be careful here.

Not everyone lives in South East England.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah its basically that, the 12z suite really isn't all that much different.

The largest difference is just that 18z suite is really going to town with that Iberian low.

Ensembles as well are also going to town, though not quite in the same way.

The good news is so far none of the models (even the progressive GEM) look anything remotely like the GFS. 

For now, nothing more than to keep a watchful eye on it, with the knowledge that it is the GFS, and it has a shocking habit of pulling lows out of its backside that it then has to walk back because its overdone it.

What makes it more concerning though is the ensembles are offering support for this scenario?  Another nerve shredding day to come tomorrow!

[MJB]

I think the key thing to remember is we have had posts on here that show what a model forecast at 120 and then show the reality ...........quite different , yes that works both ways , plenty to play for IMO

[Speedbird]

2 minutes ago, Storm Emma said:

Not everyone lives in South East England.

Maybe not.

But everyone who hasn't seen snow this winter does. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Speedbird