Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[nick sussex]

Jeez what a fiasco !

Atrocious lack of continuity from the ECM which seems to be pulling out a different NH solution on every run .

However both the GEM and UKMO now support its latest change in terms of overall pattern at day 6.

I’ve seen every easterly solution evolve over the last 16 years in NW and I can’t remember this much drama .

If you want to take one positive from the current drama , normally with easterlies you get one chance and then if it doesn’t happen it’s curtains for any cold . Here the models haven’t removed cold chances but can’t seem to settle on one evolution .

Regarding the GFS given the other major global models have now embarked on another evolution I’d be surprised if that held out .

And even it takes an age to develop low heights in northern Italy . 

Overall I’d not want to bet on exactly what solution will end up verifying next week and I doubt the models now even have the correct solution .

So as frustrating as it is we’re going to have to wait a while longer , hopefully all this drama will be worth it !

[Bald Eagle]

29 minutes ago, jacke said:

Thank you ECM, for non educated lurkers like me a much more helpful response to the current output. Sorry to bang on but there are so many members like me that look to the knowledgeable for guidance. That's what makes this forum so worthwhile.

Agreed..there are many to ignore and certain others to read and digest. 

[Gowon]

26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its the shortwave tracking from Greenland SW wards that scuppers the  ecm right to the end of the run.

That's happened quite a few times since 2010.. Maybe someone could correct me, but is it the effects of global warming putting more energy in the system?... Did we have this kind of shortwave drama in the past?

[Tim Bland]

Final ECM forecast for this afternoon, it’s been resolute in it’s forecast these past few days and still has 5cm across a band from Luton to Birmingham later. Let’s see how well it does this time...

[Kentspur]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Final ECM forecast for this afternoon, it’s been resolute in it’s forecast these past few days and still has 5cm across a band from Luton to Birmingham later. Let’s see how well it does this time...

A usual M4 Northwards/ North of the thames event it was a bit further south with extent until yesterday's runs typical!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

UKMO t144

 

GEM t144

t168 GEM

Going straight for a GHP development 

T204 GEM...GHP...locked in cold

Let’s see what we may be able to pull out of the 00z.

I for one think they look in the same ballpark and the main difference I see is much higher surface Greenie HP ob GEM. But arctic HP shape and position close, trough over UK close, trough SE Greenland close...I think UKMO would go to similar outcome.  Past few days GEM started to wander off nirvana first into just a shoter lived cold pattern, yet I seem to believe that GEM was one of first to launch into nirvana a week ago.  Now it’s returned to Nirvana but it’s settled on GHP and not a Scandi.

ECM and GFS doing the same coming away from nirvana in different ways but ‘just cold’ is in there.

So I’m of the opinion that there’s a lot more milleage in this yet...but remain conscious that coming off the rails can mean a pull away from cold.

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

Over the years it’s pretty clear that one commodity generally  lacking on this thread is patience!

we need it at the moment '

the cold to our ne left from the previous attempt to bring cold to the U.K. post 20th will remain and put pressure on the Atlantic trying to push through (assisted by wedges)

as illustrated by a few, the arctic pattern is uncertain - that’s so important ref amplification to bring cold to nw Europe 

gefs mean uppers 7/12 days is a good place to be but accepted the eps and geps less cold. It just looks as though the weak zonal flow is leading to a lack of consistency and direction away from the mean features. .

 

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

That's happened quite a few times since 2010.. Maybe someone could correct me, but is it the effects of global warming putting more energy in the system?... Did we have this kind of shortwave drama in the past?

The shortwave drama has been part and parcel of many dramas here so it’s nothing new.  Of course sea temps do have an effect on the development of these . The problematic shortwave remains stuck there however because of the lack oomph in the jet and the weakness of the initial blocking to the ne .

A strong block wouldn’t be messed around by that shortwave . The problem since the start of this current drama has been the slow filling in situ of the troughing over the UK. Most of the energy has headed south and not se .

 

[IDO]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

A usual M4 Northwards/ North of the thames event it was a bit further south with extent until yesterday's runs typical!

Similar to gfs op:

Runs north, hits the cold air, stalls and retreats south weakening by the time it hits the M4!

[Kentspur]

GEM I have no faith in this mornings run- massive cold outlier near the end I know we don't often mention GEMs ensembles but think this is important as its been mentioned how a good a run it was earlier

[MJB]

21 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Final ECM forecast for this afternoon, it’s been resolute in it’s forecast these past few days and still has 5cm across a band from Luton to Birmingham later. Let’s see how well it does this time...

Those charts look great but I can't see any settling snow here, if it does it will have to intensify dramatically 

[Badgers01]

1 hour ago, jacke said:

Thank you ECM, for non educated lurkers like me a much more helpful response to the current output. Sorry to bang on but there are so many members like me that look to the knowledgeable for guidance. That's what makes this forum so worthwhile.

Crewe’s response was just as knowledgeable!

[Roger J Smith]

Two key developments appear linked -- the evolving east coast U.S. snowstorm and the westward extent of cold in Europe. The models with the most extreme snowfall solutions have sharper troughs (near 75W) inducing slower (less progressive) motions and longer snowfall durations. These models also allow cold to win the European battle sooner and more vigorously than the other end of the spectrum (currently ECM) which only provide moderate slowing of the short wave and eject it faster into the Atlantic, then later its remnants show up to hold back the advancing cold air.

Another source of model confusion is evidently the evolution of polar high pressure which may or may not contribute to strong (or weak) Scandinavian to Iceland high pressure later. 

The way this winter has gone, cold has some wins in what seems like a 15-round heavyweight encounter with variable results round to round, so it would not surprise me if cold has a big win at some point in February, maybe even a knockout blow. 

Cold in eastern NA is well correlated by February with cold in western Europe so it won't be (in climatological terms) a negative indicator if we see massive arctic outflow from central arctic Canada to the northeastern U.S. and into the Atlantic. This can correlate with severe cold in Europe (some of the best cold Febs demonstrate this linkage). 

[sunnijim]

47 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

So despite all the tantrums and bed wetting on Friday evening. The met office warnings remain in place and neither the of the extended outlooks has changed.  Presumably whatever the best forecast organisation in the world's in house models are telling them looks somewhat different from to what the ops on the free to view stuff is showing us.  Steady as she goes.

Mogreps and Decider models  clearly  looking at a protracted spell of cold 'proper' from next weekend.

If you really wanted to pick apart the text involved from them, you would bet on Nationwide cold sometime after the 10th, earlier on we may have the far South in milder air and indeed that may always be the case for the South west with the talk of rain and snow events.

Occasional snippets of information from the likes of John Hammond who have access to these models also offer much greater hope for something quite special this time, rather than at any other time this winter when we have been led up garden paths by the free to view models.

Calling the potential we see a bust or whatever other negative adjective I'm seeing here,based on the model volatility of each run ( historically normal) when a pattern like this tries to evolve, although human nature I guess,is unwise.

It may all come to nothing 'again' but i will say now that i think something special is afoot.

I haven't commented much this winter on other scenarios that led to disappointment as I was personally unconvinced.

That is not me being full of great hindsight,just after donkeys years of watching model behaviour,M.O updates and insight from some of the Pros that comment on social media, we have never met the criteria for me to announce to my family something snowy rather than slushy is afoot yet this winter.....until now.

[Anthony Burden]

A continuation of uncertainty in the charts,patient’s required could drag out possibly Monday next week

before some kind of clarification.Always difficult to get an easterly set up,my take good chance this

time but of course nothing guaranteed with the weather.

[Tim Bland]

47 minutes ago, MJB said:

Those charts look great but I can't see any settling snow here, if it does it will have to intensify dramatically 

DPs forecast to drop throughout the day...give it an hour or so ...

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

DPs forecast to drop throughout the day...give it an hour or so ...

Any decent settling snow is unlikely though Tim

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by bluearmy

[chris55]

GFS ensembles highlighting the risk of some proper cold but also the uncertainty. Op a little late bringing the cold in further south, then goes mild towards the end. One positive is the drying trend associated with the colder flow from the 5th.

Control a little quicker brining the cold south.

GEM needs a gold medal.

 

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by chris55

[PiscesStar]

2 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Really poor levels of consistency even at around 5/6 days out. The fact that the ECM/UKMO are similar is probably more a fluke than anything else because neither is similar to previous runs, which were miles apart from each other previously.

It does feels like a case of slowly slowly as  the process of patterns are beginning to emerge and even settle thankfully..... 

 

 

[Bartlett High]

I think all the dramas ups and downs in and outs over the last few weeks with all models can be summed up in one small precise sentence..........They ain't got a clue.

[Purga]

  So GEM goes from zero to hero again from amongst the grinch bunch this morning.

More twists and turns to come, I say look at the ENS, still trending colder.

[sheikhy]

I just dont seen the icon and ecm snow events for tuesday lasting!!gfs has not backed this up what so ever!!!expecting the ecm and icon to come into line with gfs in the next couple of runs!!!

[cheshire snow]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I just dont seen the icon and ecm snow events for tuesday lasting!!gfs has not backed this up what so ever!!!expecting the ecm and icon to come into line with gfs in the next couple of runs!!!

LOL

Last night you said ECM was the top model

C.S

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I just dont seen the icon and ecm snow events for tuesday lasting!!gfs has not backed this up what so ever!!!expecting the ecm and icon to come into line with gfs in the next couple of runs!!!

Aye, GFS continues to bring in the Atlantic, can see meto warnings dropped mon to wed, away from far north, 9 degrees over our areas

 

 

[Froze were the Days]

Just viewed the models the 0z's this morning...give me strength...going to be a big bust for some mslp projections and some pro met men. Probably a continuation of the same rubbish I've experienced and continue too and that's flooding of rain 2.0 (cold variety).

ECM always seems to find a way to blocking the floodgates of cold  as I've said before the potential is there but that's all it's been.