Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[northwestsnow]

EC would surely see the SE buried!!

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

@That ECM

Time for version 2?

How did the first one go.  

[Drifter]

[ICE COLD]

Mate we’ve got -14 line in on the east coast @General Clusterover your house

[Stu_London]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Erm,

Which way is the wind blowing at day 8??

very zonal chart posted - were the earth spinning in the opposite direction

[chris55]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

T192 ECM , LOL

What was the famous John McEnroe quote........ I don't even need to say it! 

[northwestsnow]

That day 8 would be bitterly cold.

 

[EML Network]

Well well well take your pick tonight folks, all roads lead to cold and snow....enjoy it whilst it lasts  which will hopefully be right up to T+0 

it's such a joy to see the 3 main charts more or less converging at T+144 and that moving forwards would give much of the UK an absolute snowfest, yes there are differences but even the middle ground between all 3 evolutions would deliver

UKMO +144 

GFS + 144 

ECM + 144 

 

If covid wasn't happening I'd open up a big club and throw a gigantic snow themed club night tonight, regardless of what actually happens at T+144 because tonight my friends for one night at least we can all sleep and dream of frolics in the snow xxx

Edited February 1, 2021 by EML Network

[Penrith Snow]

12 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Looking at the GFS 12Z (which I reckon is probably overdoing things) I was reminded a lot of this classic chart from February 1979:

The GFS 12Z version isn't quite as cold as that, but considering that Tynemouth had a midday temperature of -3C on 14 February 1979 with a strong to gale force wind right off the North Sea, that isn't saying much.  

One of my favourite days, 34cms of drifting snow in Penrith and we are on the wrong side of the Pennines! 

Strangely that blizzard brought much greater snow depths to Northern Britain, Nottingham northwards than further south although the deep snow extended into East Anglia.

In Birmingham the snow depth was just 10cms.

Andy 

[Tim Bland]

That’ll do ️

[TEITS]

This output is so incredible I am not even sure I want the 12Z GFS to come off due to the current situation. The forecast would be like those in the classic 1980 E,lys i.e snow showers becoming heavier and more prolonged merging into periods of snow. Many a time I read that sort of forecast back in the old teletext days!

Still think we could see the E,ly sooner than the 7th Feb, possibly this friday!

[nick sussex]

The ECM is sensational with some stunning snow accumulations likely however I’d really urge some caution before complete pandemonium breaks out in here l

I know it’s hard but we need to see the first big hurdle modelled well within T96 hrs .

Edited February 1, 2021 by nick sussex

[weirpig]

Lol 216h   and the cold still cometh

[ICE COLD]

T216 still getting buried

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

How did the first one go.  

That ECM

BUT
 

We win this time!

[nsrobins]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is sensational with some stunning snow accumulations likely however I’d really urge some caution before complete pandemonium breaks out in here l

I know it’s hard but we need to see the first big hurdle modelled we’ll within T96 hrs .

Very wise words

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Northern Sky said:

Question for you Kold. Bearing in mind how easterlies have failed in closer timeframes before, what's your view on the likelihood of that happening again given how close it is to a bust?

Is anything after 120hrs worth looking at until this is resolved? 

The evolution into this is more solid the further north you go. I can't see the northern half of the country missing out now, I think they are locked.

The south is much more dependent on exactly how the LP behaves. We are still too far out to have any confidence beyond really 96hrs.

I'm fairly confident there is going to be a cold spell for the south to some extent NS. Am I sure its going to come in the form of an easterly. Not so confident as these flabby limpet LP setups are very prone for developing minor secondary lows which could mess up everything, as it did on the 06z GFS earlier on.

I think we can be much more certain this time tomorrow. If its still getting our LP complex far enough SE then the rest will almost 100% follow and the GFS/ECM/UKMO solutions will happen 100%.

All hinges on the low between 72-120hrs.

[Ice Day]

ECM at 216

This run is utterly sensational, incredible, amazing, unbelievable, wonderful, superb (delete as appropriate)

[Drifter]

This is going to make the come down so much harder now (probably tomorrow morning!). 
Do you realise we have to navigate about 20 more model runs to get there - and none can be as good as this ecm run.

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is sensational with some stunning snow accumulations likely however I’d really urge some caution before complete pandemonium breaks out in here l

I know it’s hard but we need to see the first big hurdle modelled well within T96 hrs .

I was just about to say similar but t144 is a good chart, what follows is far from decided. It will be cold though.

[Man With Beard]

ecm D9, Bloomin nora, we might get another cold pool straight after the first here! And that low still looks ready to pounce 

(All the concerns I posted an hour ago still apply )

 

[supernova]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

could replace That ECM on 5th Dec 2012

Which looked equally as splendid from 216 alllllllll the way to 72hrs until it left the party with the keys to bar and without saying goodbye! Cross model agreement is good. Let's hope it stays like that for the next week....very much hope so.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T216, and you could make an argument that there is a lot more to come here:

[chris55]

5 minutes ago, chris55 said:

What was the famous John McEnroe quote........ I don't even need to say it! 

Here it is lol  

[Riky91]

Am I late to the party? Seems like. This week is going to be interesting. Hard to wait a whole week with so many runs ahead