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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
2 minutes ago, swilliam said:

quite a nice snow event for our friends in the SE as well

 

 

overview_20210201_12_156.jpg

snow depths to go with that. Should be more representative now as no marginality

snowdepth_20210201_12_174.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Quite unusual day 7 ECM.

The main block has headed north west but you’re developing a wedge to the north . That needs to verify to keep the jet to the south of the UK.

Yeah Nick, as a seasoned veteran of the winter campaigns here you know how tricky those types of things are to pull off. I'm far from convinced the ECM set-up is a solid one...

However I am happy to see all the operationals make it today, even if the evolution is at times very hairy and iffy on a great number of them.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
9 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

T168 is a beauty, what a fantastic run once again. Momentum is building now!

49A43087-2DF8-476C-9874-471A9A5373F1.thumb.png.d76ac1cc5769c3860e852de336534372.png28D7B2FF-E785-410B-8F64-E0B42AA8D8EC.thumb.png.3d5c41eadae41278138e84c17e33ed2b.png

I think this is the boomiest chart I have ever seen within seven days on the ECM! (don't normally get over excited)    !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Gfs 12z sonic boooom ❄❄

UKmo 12z  sonic boooooom ❄

Ecm 12z sonic boooooom ❄❄

 

You wouldn't think I'm in my mid 40s

Excited

That might place you on the younger side around here

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ice cold please stick to these charts from here on in please!!

Yes @ICE COLD’s 850 Uk charts brought the 2018 BFTE in!!

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Three words to describe the ECM so far:

WHAT THE ##%#*$%#?$$%!

That's an Ian Brown of an ECM that is,.... 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

192hrs ECM is again utterly sensational. 

Really is about as good as it gets without having a super cold PV lobe involved with proceedings.

I just wish the 72-120hrs was a bit more comfortable and not so ropey, then I'd be all in on the ramping.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

could replace That ECM on 5th Dec 2012

If, unlike that one, it happens, then YES.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

People have been saying this isn’t going to be a BFTE, absolute codswollop !!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Just now, Stu_London said:

I'll hold back on the BOOMs until we are +72

and more importantly, the NAVGEM is on board.

NAVGEM got you covered Stu!

NVGOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.ccd899af641f4ef8854b3ec917c0fbc9.png

Hopefully the 12z ECM ensembles don't show this run at the cold end of the pack...gotta be close to that end given how long its keeps smashing those easterlies across us.

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Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
12 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yes you were correct.

Lets not underestimate how close that run is to a bust though, its REAL close.

Question for you Kold. Bearing in mind how easterlies have failed in closer timeframes before, what's your view on the likelihood of that happening again given how close it is to a bust?

Is anything after 120hrs worth looking at until this is resolved? 

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