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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


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Posted
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL
    2 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Reasonably close agreement by the three big models tonight. On a snowstorm 🌨️🌨️🌨️

    Are we making progress at last? I do hope so.

    Sundays are the day of choice for this winter... 😆 And a nice follow up at 168!

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 minute ago, Alexis said:

    ECMWF at 144h - I'm calling that a victory for the GFS and UKMO and a defeat for the best model.

    Did you see the GFS 06Z? It was one of the mildest we've seen!

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    Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
    3 minutes ago, Alexis said:

    ECMWF at 144h - I'm calling that a victory for the GFS and UKMO and a defeat for the best model.

    It is foolish to call a victory for one model over another at 6 days out in this setup. FI probably at 72h at the moment.

    Wait till it verifies.......

    Edited by Uncle_Barty
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    Just now, IDO said:

    This is the crucial chart coming, d7! How the low to the SE reacts to the incoming undercut? 

    no issues:

    1747273902_ECE1-168(1).thumb.gif.6f7c3415b34d063633f606d8356755be.gifECE0-168.thumb.gif.b7b6d6e1e1c0937b35a62b638a48d224.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

    I actually think the 144 was a bit of a fluke tbh, just the slowing of the Atlantic lows was our saving grace allowing a small ridge to pop up and avoid a phasing catastrophe! 

    And yes I hope that prediction goes well!

    The key area that saves our bacon is that little upper feature near Greenland effectively interacts with the LP to its south and effectively tugs the whole complex westwards which pretty much puts the brakes on and forces the momentum to the SE.

    Ironically slower evolution but probably better long term sustainablity. 

    168hrs is a thing of utter beauty!

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

    Just gets colder  image.thumb.png.550afb736a20fa69748959041b0f239e.png

     

    image.png

    Edited by snowice
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Quite unusual day 7 ECM.

    The main block has headed north west but you’re developing a wedge to the north . That needs to verify to keep the jet to the south of the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

    ECM snow depth charts will be a laugh tonight.

    They are super-rampy in normal times. 

     

    Upto 18cms already in favoured spots on 12z Monday and no doubts thats only heading upwards given the setup.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

    Sorry I keep posting these but I love em lol . 
     

    T168 @mulzy

    9E917351-280E-4326-8C5D-17208E206D97.png

    Ice cold please stick to these charts from here on in please!!😍

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    2 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

    Gfs 12z sonic boooom 🏂❄❄

    UKmo 12z  sonic boooooom 😨🏂

    Ecm 12z sonic boooooom 💣🏂❄❄

     

    You wouldn't think I'm in my mid 40s

    😂😂

    Excited

    I would. I'm 52 

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