Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[RhysWales]

Lift off!

Edited February 1, 2021 by RhysWales

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

I’d say you’re jumping the gun give it a chance.

Yes you were correct.

Lets not underestimate how close that run is to a bust though, its REAL close.

[sheikhy]

Ecm u beautyyy!!!!!

[Captain Shortwave]

Once the low over the U.K. finally interacts fully with the trough to the east then the cold air will surge in.

Day 6 and again a similar set up to the UKMO

Edited February 1, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I sighed relief when I saw the ecm T+120, because I expect the next frame to show an easterly across most of the country, with Iberian low deepening and moving NE

Spot. On.

  

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Its closer to the 12z GEM but there are differences there as well.

I'm far from convinced the cold will make it into the south on this run and this run may well setup a decent snow event for the north, with maybe some front edge stuff further south if the cold air flanking round that low is cold enough.

Still, slider on the menu on this ECM still, better than nothing for sure.

Sorry kold but this comment aged like fine milk 

We should be happy tho either way. I would say the seperation of the low stops it progressing east allowing just enough time for the low to sink SE.

Could be crucial.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Snowman.

[kold weather]

So 144hrs the easterly does make it...

Still looks on for a slider evolution though eventually.

 

[Mark wheeler]

And breathe I said with a YEAHHHH fist pump .

[Griff]

Just now, Snowman. said:

Sorry kold but this comment aged like fine milk 

We should be happy tho either way.

To be fair, you could feel that everyone was holding their breath for what felt like an eternity

[chionomaniac]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I sighed relief when I saw the ecm T+120, because I expect the next frame to show an easterly across most of the country, with Iberian low deepening and moving NE

Sure enough

[ICE COLD]

A closer look and it’s

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Sorry kold but this comment aged like fine milk 

We should be happy tho either way.

Yep it did, I'm glaf but snowman my concerns remain, thats a very uncomfortable evolution into a cold easterly.

That is one small secondary low away from totally busting for the south and looking like the 06z GFS for example.

Very fine margins indeed.

Now for another prediction snowman. Big snow event on the 12z ECM at 192hrs! Lets hope thats closer to the mark!

[Stu_London]

some cross model consensus but I still fear this saga has a few twists yet

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looking at the GFS 12Z (which I reckon is probably overdoing things) I was reminded a lot of this classic chart from February 1979:

The GFS 12Z version isn't quite as cold as that, but considering that Tynemouth had a midday temperature of -3C on 14 February 1979 with a strong to gale force wind right off the North Sea, that isn't saying much.  

[KTtom]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

Sure enough

Yea, good call...ukmo and ecm are very close at 144, very rare!

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, RhysWales said:

Lift off!

Reasonably close agreement by the three big models tonight. On a snowstorm

Are we making progress at last? I do hope so.

[TSNWK]

The drama......................... is it safe to come out from behind the sofa yet.....................

[snowice]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

A closer look and it’s

Wrong colour heart

[Alexis]

ECMWF at 144h - I'm calling that a victory for the GFS and UKMO and a defeat for the best model.

[Snowman.]

Just now, kold weather said:

Yep it did, I'm glaf but snowman my concerns remain, thats a very uncomfortable evolution into a cold easterly.

That is one small secondary low away from totally busting for the south and looking like the 06z GFS for example.

Very fine margins indeed.

Now for another prediction snowman. Big snow event on the 12z ECM at 192hrs! Lets hope thats closer to the mark!

I actually think the 144 was a bit of a fluke tbh, just the slowing of the Atlantic lows was our saving grace allowing a small ridge to pop up and avoid a phasing catastrophe! 

And yes I hope that prediction goes well!

[kold weather]

Just now, Man Without Beard said:

Reasonably close agreement by the three big models tonight. On a snowstorm

Are we making progress at last? I do hope so.

I think there is starting to get closer to agreement at 96hrs.

Still very much within the margins of error further out though. For example would only require another 24hrs delay on the movement of our limpet low system and the whole game is off, so I'm far from confident at this stage.

Still outstanding, if somewhat dicey, ECM

[IDO]

This is the crucial chart coming, d7! How the low to the SE reacts to the incoming undercut? 

[Timmytour]

Close to the edge!  What we need now is an omega block!

[Matt H]

T168 is a beauty, what a fantastic run once again. Momentum is building now!

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168, and a look at the uppers and they are AWESOME!!