Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[KTtom]

Massive plus for all us southwesterners getting depressed with the snow depth charts...tomorrows wont be a downgrade for our location

[southbank]

8 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Feb 91 - anyone now the precise dates and able to dig out a chart - I do remember it well and was getting grumpy as that winter progress thinking its been 4 years since 87 and last blast - Oh if only I knew then that 4 years was nothing....sighs.............

 

7th 8th February 1991 I’m sure , the Thursday /Friday had the heaviest fall in london since 87 then Saturday had scattered showers 

[TSNWK]

@nick sussex 

Hello Nick, any updates from  the Crunchy snow and ice day alert committee room?

[winterfreak]

1 minute ago, southbank said:

7th 8th February 1991 I’m sure , the Thursday /Friday had the heaviest fall in london since 87 then Saturday had scattered showers 

The coldest time I can remember. I mean up on the downs in 87 was epic for depth but 1991 was much colder. 

[Tim Bland]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Jesus Kris that will go down like a fart in a space suit.

Don’t forget that the chart is for midday Sunday so the snow machine has only just got going...,

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, southbank said:

7th 8th February 1991 I’m sure , the Thursday /Friday had the heaviest fall in london since 87 then Saturday had scattered showers 

Then I think early the following week there was another fall - but you could the difference from the powder that fell before, I actually felt it was the end then.. a good fall in its own rights but well... when you get powder snow its a whole different game...

Sorry Mods - A bit of pre 12Z ECM chit chat.. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by TSNWK

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Massive plus for all us southwesterners getting depressed with the snow depth charts...tomorrows wont be a downgrade for our location

Wait until the Atlantic tries to push in

[kold weather]

Well the 12z suite has blown away any doubts the 06z has brought up I see!

With that being said the GFS ensembles in particular are still riddled with LPs being too far north and so at least for the SE of the country we are now in a very high risk but high reward solution.

Great operationals, but huge caution needed still.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Don’t forget that the chart is for midday Sunday so the snow machine has only just got going...,

I know mate I'm only having a bit of fun....

[Andypvfc]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Wait until the Atlantic tries to push in

Misses everywhere till it gets Shrewsbury and then gets stuck over Stoke

[bluearmy]

As mused this morning in response to a question about the renewed jet next week, the gfsp develops a cold surface high across the snowfelds of n Europe 

Edited February 1, 2021 by bluearmy

[Iceaxecrampon]

22 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

No part of the country will miss out if the GFS 12Z is right, I'm sure of that.

lol.

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

@nick sussex 

Hello Nick, any updates from  the Crunchy snow and ice day alert committee room?

A meeting has been scheduled for tomorrow!  Some of the committee wanted a meeting this evening but as Chairman I vetoed it ! 

I’d like to see a few more runs , the committee disagreements centre over the limpet shortwave and how quickly that clears to the se !

[claret047]

8 minutes ago, southbank said:

7th 8th February 1991 I’m sure , the Thursday /Friday had the heaviest fall in london since 87 then Saturday had scattered showers 

You are probably correct. My youngest son's birthday is on 8th February and we had invited some of his friends for his 3rd birthday party, but several were unable to attend due to the deep snow,

Looking at the GFS, GFDS// and UKMO it all looks almost too good to be true. Let us hope the ECM starts to join in with good charts too in a little while.

Kind regards

Dave

[Griff]

Parallel still rolling, I've made food and had a family meal since my comment around 80 hours about it being stubborn, I should have said persistent!

[East Kent Snow Desert]

Hi all. Another long time lurker here and just wanting to thank all the regular, knowledgeable posters for their time and efforts over these past couple of months.  Certainly been an interesting winter thus far.

That GFS 12z was good to see with no mention of marginality or the M4 for us in the south and south east.  Makes a refreshing change.   

[That ECM]

Point of interest nothing more. At t72 it’s further east. Which goes to show that if it goes se imo it won’t be until t72/48 we know the position. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by That ECM

[Timmytour]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Point of interest nothing more. At t72 it’s further east. Which goes to show that if it goes se imo it won’t be until t72/48 we know the position. 

thats a bit like the GFS 6z......

[That ECM]

Fi is when? T24

Look at the 850 differences over Ireland.

Edited February 1, 2021 by That ECM

[Mike Poole]

T96 on the big three:

ECM looks a little north of the UKMO with the low, need to wait to see how this goes, still big uncertainty here.  GFS further south, well we know how that goes.  

[KTtom]

Very similar to ukmo at 96, gfs slightly on its own with it surther south west.

 

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by KTtom

[Marko1690]

42 minutes ago, seandonghue said:

Nice northeaster be good for you guys, In Dublin here , we can have a thing Called .' Isle of Man shadow 'That can upset streamers  moving in across the Iriag Sea Dublin Region

dog biscuits to that, always the way here in our wee Isle, as usual lol!

[Daniel*]

UKMO and ECM pretty identical at t96 with former it didn’t end badly did it! 

[weirpig]

Just now, KTtom said:

Very similar to ukmo at 96

 

 

Yep Ec and UKMO  very similar    hopefully it evolves same way

[kold weather]

96hrs chart for ECM is very borderline indeed.

Looks like its heading towards a GEM 12z solution.

FI at the moment cannot be any further out than 96hrs, it may even be closer to 72hrs at the moment based on quite the wide range of solutions on offer even at that timeframe.