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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    I don’t appreciate the delay and hope for better, but it’s a million miles better than 12z.

    EF39BA9A-4BA5-475D-A9D4-01CF0C274F98.thumb.gif.028d1608ef73a2ca89bf1acec3d7807b.gif59E14F44-4E98-452B-A793-A7A2878D12D9.thumb.gif.c6dd5988fe0f29848ddd3a1114bc9083.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
    2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    Really poor levels of consistency even at around 5/6 days out. The fact that the ECM/UKMO are similar is probably more a fluke than anything else because neither is similar to previous runs, which were miles apart from each other previously.

    It does feels like a case of riding this uncertainty out and not placing any bets on any kind of solution at the moment.

     

    Normally head to the ensembles for clarity , but the EPS and GEFS are flipping from one run to the next 

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    The ecms thirst for exploding amp=heights..in the tightest pockets continues!..New data instal fails to eleviate it's thirst for any chance of amplification..it's acting bizzare atm...the upper atmos ramifications are playing havoc....but I'll suggest this...once the ball has stopped bouncing-and the clasp is clear...whatever the notion...this raw(ecm) will then be released from the nut house and lead!!...on we go...

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Too much shortwave drama on the ECM - better than last night’s run but not delivering anything substantive.  Potential remains but we need to see delivery now!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Ukmo and ecm boring this morning!!!apart from the gfs its not been the best start to the day but thats just my opinion!!!i think its best to just focus on the next 4 days!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    Well I think we are in a better place than after the 12z from yesterday. ECM is better, but seems little oomph to lower heights over Europe / Med..... feels like a stuck record. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Biggest problem this morning is the low just sitting there filling over us!!doesnt go south doesnt go east west or north for a few days!!ridiculous!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    I mentioned it yesterday and i know my posts were not popular but i just say how it is!!when a run like that ecm 12z comes out it can be the start of a rut!!!you can have the gfs and its gfs ensembles on board as much as you want but if the other 2 are not agreeing 9 times out of 10 it aint a good thing!!problem is though when we improve on one thing another issue occurs!!so we have improved on the flat output from ecm 12z but now the low filling over us another issue thats cropped up!!whats next😒

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    Just now, jacke said:

    OK, let's return to last year's output! Sorry the charts not showing a 10 day blizzard but this is the UK. So there are no possibilities from the latest charts? Comments of "meh" so discreptive. NOT!

    I think meh probably sums it up pretty well lol!

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Although progressive, the ecm 12z from yesterday looks to have been correct in the modelling of the Arctic high and this morning the gfs moves in that direction post-d6:

    d6>1908407731_ink(5).thumb.png.13aaa4573675efe09921a51c9b81ae2f.pnggfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.a4734bc8e83e497532a6b2e52f4f370b.png

    Both ecm and gfs at d6 have a great axis for the tPV to slide from Asia to Scandi, effectively a block. By d7 the Arctic high has changed the orientation and cut the flow and the block loses its reinforcement:

    168>782964853_ink(6).thumb.png.205b607820b7df9f7272d035115699f3.png

    192>1518796570_gfsnh-0-192(1).thumb.png.2656a4bc349780fbbf4c599be53a6336.png

    240>946204312_ECH1-240(1).thumb.gif.ee5e430c9df68abfe59d9cd48e89dfd7.gif

    Less progressive, so we do get a colder pool before it is cut off, but a bust to the easterly especially on the ecm, which by d10 sends the Arctic high to completely kill the flow from that earlier Asia>Scandi trough!

    Assuming the models are merging on this play then we are having to look for an easterly from another setup, that will likely lead to an inevitable delay as we go into a holding pattern in response to the d10 Pacific wave. Sadly despite the SSWE being in early January the clock keeps ticking and you do wonder if the UK is not favoured by this event?

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

    I think EC and UKMO are improved. Much better Arctic High stretching to the south. Just compare 144h EC yesterday evening and this morning. UKMO more or less in line with this. The setting in the Atl. Ocean could do better, tough.

    ECMOPNH12_144_1.png

    ECMOPNH00_144_1.png

    UKMOPNH00_144_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Its the shortwave tracking from Greenland SW wards that scuppers the  ecm right to the end of the run.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Ecm has improved in the reliable timeframe that's the important part, the rest of the run is crud, but most probably a mild outlier afterwards or at the top end of the pack,like nearly every ECM run for weeks, 

    GEM is awesome, if it has it correct then ECM will have lost all credibility even if it does match the GEM eventually. 

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    Posted
  • Location: March, Cambs
  • Location: March, Cambs
    4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    People will disagree but the EC is an improvement on its previous run.

    GFS as shown below is good and goes “wrong” in fi.

    Ukmo at T144 would be an interesting starting point with opportunities from there.

     

    😜😄😄😄😄👍

    538B49F4-82E5-4E29-B774-1B6AFB3F027E.png

    7E3A06C1-FDFF-4484-A8F3-D69FDACDA67B.gif

    D89BFF9A-3E8B-4EF9-BDE5-F4A5ECBC32DE.png

    Thank you ECM, for non educated lurkers like me 😉 a much more helpful response to the current output. Sorry to bang on but there are so many members like me that look to the knowledgeable for guidance. That's what makes this forum so worthwhile.

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    Posted
  • Location: North Norfolk
  • Location: North Norfolk
    16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    People will disagree but the EC is pretty awful this morning. Glancing blow of sufficiently cold uppers for most. 

    GFS not great with its mid lat HP scenario into FI

    UKMO is meh.

    We're basically hanging on the GEFS and GEM. That isn't a great situation to be in.

    I agree with your view.  The EC is once again poor this morning. The low sitting over us seems to take forever to fill and that seems to have been a pattern throughout the winter. The GFS delivers more deep cold but for how long. There seems to be a tendency also for the cold to be pushed towards SE Europe. The ensembles for Athens are hinting at that. The High sinks south to allow this. Easterlies are so difficult to predict right to the wire.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Its the shortwave tracking from Greenland SW wards that scuppers the  ecm right to the end of the run.

    It is the Butterfly Wings effect, changes in forces up and downstream allow for micro scale features to change direction or course. It is one big closed system and this is a very complex setup, especially if we need everything to go right for 2-3 days to get that easterly in place. 

    The gefs remain split with 16 still having a better Arctic high and we see that in the gefs with many members remaining cold and snowy. An equal amount support the op, so still time for a flip back but the next few runs will give us the trend:

    d8 gefs> gens_panel_ybz6.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

    Not the greatest of overnight runs, and we all know how fickle the ensembles can be. But you'd rather be seeing these than not seeing them, with the op one of the mildest towards the end!

    IMG_20210130_071231.jpg

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