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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 hours ago, D.V.R said:

If it does backtrack, you should record yourself eating your hat and pop it in the other thread 

Can I make a hat cake? 
 

also sorry mods, will be OT now 

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Posted
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: snow, cold, ice, frost, thundersnow,
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom

Best case scenario this is looking similar to early February 2009, which was a very snowy spell but didn't last that long into the month. I wasn't personally bought into the idea of a longer cold spell or anything especially cold a la BFTE 2018.

The models moving the low pressure more north over the weekend shouldn't be ignored. Still need more model runs to be resolved, a shift in that low pressure makes all the difference between mild rain and snowmageddon. 

Even if there is widespread snow I'm still not bought on the idea of a prolonged very cold spell, maybe 5-7 days at most at least the further south you go. Still some interesting model runs to come this week me thinks.

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
3 minutes ago, Vadoseflame said:

ECM6z better than 00z - the low should go south or south east allowing easterly winds to prevail. 
 

onto 12z in a few hours

Where can we view the ecm6z ? Is it behind a paywall ? Cheers Mark

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
On 30/01/2021 at 21:21, Froze were the Days said:

When was that, I remember 1 run back before early-January (I think) which opened the door to easterlies but then chopped back but there have been two occasions after Xmas when GFS has showed consistent charts of wintry nirvana to be dropped. They all have there faults, long way to run on this episode though and as mentioned yesterday if we are to get an easterly it's unusual for the euro ecm to be flapping.

There's been a couple of ECM's over the years that have got down to T24 or so with the mother of all beasts only to fade away in the last few runs to mild Atlantic. Experienced model watchers will not bank the ECM til t12 for this reason. It can and has been wrong at extremely short notice, as can and have all models. 

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
2 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Can I make a hat cake? 
 

also sorry mods, will be OT now 

You could make one out of rice paper, or wear a tiny hat which would be easier to consume ?‍♂️

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