Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, Snowman31 said:

Thank you. I meant the 6z ECM inbetween the 00z and the 12z ones. I heard there were 4 runs a day? 

It does. But they are behind a paywall.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Snowman31 said:

Thank you. I meant the 6z ECM inbetween the 00z and the 12z ones. I heard there were 4 runs a day? 

@sheikhy knows the EC 06Z, never knew there was one, not on meteociel though

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

just the 0z and 12z this model .....6am & 6pm

ECM 6z and 18z do exist. But are behind a paywall.

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Vadoseflame said:

It does. But they are behind a paywall.

Just as well!  It’s times like this I wish all model runs were behind a paywall!

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Don

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

@sheikhy knows the EC 06Z, never knew there was one, not on meteociel though

Won’t be because it’s behind a paywall.

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, supernova said:

ECMF rolls twice a day, 0z and 12z. Between 6pm and 7pm for the next run. ICON first of this afternoon's runs (sometime after 3pm), then UKMO and the GFS a bit later along with the GEM. No doubt someone can give you exact times but that's a rough and ready guide.

There are 6z and 18z ECM updates but they’re behind a paywall.

Edit: Oops. This has already been answered.

Edited February 2, 2021 by MattStoke

[supernova]

5 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

Thank you. I meant the 6z ECM inbetween the 00z and the 12z ones. I heard there were 4 runs a day? 

No only the GFS runs four times a day (at least for the general public to access as @MattStoke and others rightly note above, and which is too many runs in my humble opinion!)

Edited February 2, 2021 by supernova

[MJB]

8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Changed your view yet?...were we all tipping our hats to the GFS? hopefully the ecm will have a better handling on this than the American GFS but it really is on a knife edge, certainly would rather have ECM/UKMO vs GFS. I think this evolution will run and run until the mists clear and this could be right up to 48hrs or so.

Not entirely but it's such a huge swing from GFS it has to be taken seriously , I agree it could well go right to Saturday even ,  in saying that the Met website now has Banbury as 1c for Monday , this morning it was showing 3c ..............blimey which way do you look lol 

Edited February 2, 2021 by MJB

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Vadoseflame said:

ECM 6z and 18z do exist. But are behind a paywall.

The little snippet that we can see of the ECM 06z

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

The little snippet that we can see of the ECM 06z

whats it doing up there.. thought it was further south.

[SqueakheartLW]

Time for my 06z GFS update and after the let down 00z with the least cold average so far time to see if the 06z continues the bad trend or reverses it. The peak of the cold spell on the 06z is at 144 hours away

We maintain an average easterly here on the GFS 06z and compared with the 00z we look to be in a slightly better position on average with more UK wide coverage of the easterlies compared with the 00z. This is reflected somewhat in the 850hpa temperature average of -7.0 which is -3.7 below the long term mean and this -7.0 is an upgrade of -0.5 over the 00z but is still way off where we had been up to yesterday morning. Hope this getting colder signal is a sign we are heading back in the right direction again. The anomaly chart also looks better than it did for the 00z with the blues more widespread again and that milder area further away again.

Mildest 3 charts from the 06z GFS at 144 hours away

3rd     Member 8     850hpa temp -1.6

This looks like a cold spell that never got going. The low pressure simply parks itself out west and keeps us under a less cold southerly flow instead

2nd     Operational     850hpa temp -0.9

The operational run was a milder outlier here at 144 hours away and like the first option we are stuck under the influence of low pressure. This one makes for a white Scotland whilst the rest of the UK is wet

1st     Member 2     850hpa temp -0.5

This run very similar to the Op with us stuck under the low pressure, white for the far north, wet elsewhere

Coldest 3 charts for the 06z GFS at 144 hours away

3rd     Member 18     850hpa temp -12.1

A decent beasterly here with frequent snow showers coming in off the North Sea

2nd     Member 10     850hpa temp -13.5

This member looks even better. A trough in the flow is moving in from the east into central UK. This very likely enhancing the snow risk even further in these areas

1st     Member 1     850hpa temp -14.8

A more anticyclonic easterly here with the coldest uppers but probably the least snow of the 3 options

Closest to the average of -7.0 charts of the 06z GFS at 144 hours away (3 above and 3 below - Range -6.6 to -8.9)

Member 21     850hpa temp -6.6

Not any particular easterly showing here but a potential snow maker with low pressure in charge and fairly low uppers to match this.

Member 20     850hpa temp -6.8

Basically similar to the above except the low pressure is deeper and some colder uppers are in the mix too. Very much similar locations for the snow as the first example

Member 23     850hpa temp -6.9

We are stuck under the area of low pressure here with snow a real risk but probably further west on this run with the low pressure centred further west.

Member 16     850hpa temp -7.1

A bit more of an easterly flow here bringing snow showers into the NE in particular. The south maybe a little too warm for the snow however

Member 4     850hpa temp -7.8

A better easterly than the previous chart so the snow risk extends right down to the south too. Eastern areas at greatest risk whilst further west less so

Member 30     850hpa temp -8.9

The most beasterly option in the close to average charts. Most widespread snow showers too away from the far SE which may see rain or sleet.

Mildest doom and gloom chart of the 06z GFS

Member 30     +384 hours     850hpa temp 8.8

This is simply a horror chart for winter seeing all those warm uppers pushing up from N Africa into the UK. Generally high pressure dominated so it would be dry at least. A high chance here of a rerun of February 2019 if this came off.

Coldest fantasy chart of the 06z GFS

Member 10     +150 hours     850hpa temp -15.0

This is one hell of a beasterly showing up on Member 10 at 150 hours away. The -15 isotherm has made it into the UK and is a very similar rerun of February 2018. No doubt frequent and heavy snow showers will be the flavour of the day here.

[MJB]

Just now, TSNWK said:

whats it doing up there.. thought it was further south.

Following GFS lol ............great this game isn't it 

[Updated_Weather]

Some interesting Information - maybe they don’t buy GFS either

[bluearmy]

06z ec op against 00z ec op at T90/T96 (within the envelope or a concern ?)  and heights a little deeper too! 

      

Edited February 2, 2021 by bluearmy

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

whats it doing up there.. thought it was further south.

At 72 on the 00z run it was centred over the isle on Man, so looks like it's gone ENE a little bit, hard to gather what that means without the wider picture though

[Bradley in Kent]

6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The little snippet that we can see of the ECM 06z

Uh oh, not liking that all. All going the wrong direction for me (a coldie), especially when you have the Atlantic livening up

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Uh oh, not liking that all. All going the wrong direction for me (a coldie), especially when you have the Atlantic livening up

Not much difference. It’s the t120 that would be of interest.

Edited February 2, 2021 by That ECM

[sheikhy]

Latest ecm 06z much better than the gfs 06z at 72 hours!!low slightly further east and cold air already establishing from the north at just 3 days away...

[jam]

14 minutes ago, supernova said:

No only the GFS runs four times a day (at least for the general public to access as @MattStoke and others rightly note above, and which is too many runs in my humble opinion!)

slightly different data sources for each run I believe

[Timmytour]

Thinking T120 on the next GFS is a crucial time for it..... as I understand things, we need the low over the UK to go a lot further south  on the run and not split at all? Or, if the energy does split, we need the low over the UK to quickly fill and not draw up the one over France?

I retain an affection of old for the GFS. I can't pretend it doesn't worry me to see it not on the same page as the others. I know when it goes different it sometimes goes erratic in doing so, but I always consider this is down to it picking up a new signal and struggling to accommodate it in the early stages.   I always retain hope when the others are not providing any promise and the GFS is, and so naturally it works the other way around as well.  Whatever happens in this next run, there are still a good number of runs for things to rectify themselves, but I really think if the GFS doesn't get on board with this next one, then we can expect to see changes in the ECM and UKMO as well over the next 24 hours. 

 

[Timmytour]

14 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The little snippet that we can see of the ECM 06z

If there was nothing stopping that coming down the North Sea that could end up being very good!

[Yarmy]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

06z ec op against 00z ec op at T90/T96 (within the envelope or a concern ?) 

      

 

Hard to say, but looking at the ECM06z T72, it looks like the low to the East of Scotland does track SE thereafter at least. The important point is that there are big differences within 72 hours between the ECM 0z and ECM 6z, so anyone hoping for closure after the 12z runs is deluding themselves.

[Mark wheeler]

Navgem 6z 

[sheikhy]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

06z ec op against 00z ec op at T90/T96 (within the envelope or a concern ?)  and heights a little deeper too! 

      

Looks fine to me blue!!!shame we cant see a more wider view!!

[Light Without Heat]

16 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

whats it doing up there.. thought it was further south.

I was thinking exactly the same!