Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Chesil View]

7 minutes ago, MJB said:

Don't shoot me 

I am thinking we will see a change from ECM this evening towards GFS , it followed GFS for the Easterly and caught up , I think it will do the same here . GFS running 4 times a day will always show different scenarios . With us seeing ECM twice a day its a day behind with regards what we see. 

Sadly I think GFS has sniffed something out............just because it's on it's own doesn't mean it's wrong , UK weather law would suggest it's right.

I do hope I am wrong 

It doesn't mean it's wrong but it does suggest it is.

[IDO]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

DO you think the mean will be representative of the actual conditions?

The mean is only good for trends so worth a look. As others have said, this looks a synoptic issue as to eastery or not (IMBY perpsective) so treated as such. The trend on the gefs is not great, yesterday the op had limited support so may mean something, or not?

 

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

 

That is a transient mean easterly for the north but a faux easterly for the south ( winds sourced from Iberia).

[Updated_Weather]

6 minutes ago, MJB said:

Don't shoot me 

I am thinking we will see a change from ECM this evening towards GFS , it followed GFS for the Easterly and caught up , I think it will do the same here . GFS running 4 times a day will always show different scenarios . With us seeing ECM twice a day its a day behind with regards what we see. 

Sadly I think GFS has sniffed something out............just because it's on it's own doesn't mean it's wrong , UK weather law would suggest it's right.

I do hope I am wrong 

Disagree.

GFS has done this before.. sniffed it out first, UKMO and ECM catch up, GFS drops it - ECM and UKMO are sticking with it, GFS slowly catches up again.

[That ECM]

7 minutes ago, IDO said:

The mean is only good for trends so worth a look. As others have said, this looks a synoptic issue as to eastery or not (IMBY perpsective) so treated as such. The trend on the gefs is not great, yesterday the op had limited support so may mean something, or not?

 

That is a transient mean easterly for the north but a faux easterly for the south ( winds sourced from Iberia).

So there is a mean easterly then it’s just a faux one. how many easterlies are there at t144 within the gefs for you? A low to your se is an easterly. It doesn’t need to start in Siberia.

I’ll answer. 10. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by That ECM

[Don]

40 minutes ago, IDO said:

Even the gfsP has relatively short-lived cold spell and ties in with the ecm mean:

 

I've not seen the ECM but thought it was rock solid with its evolution with the up coming cold spell and not short lived?

[Tim Bland]

I’m just pleased this faux easterly is likely to bring faux snow for many ️

[Radiating Dendrite]

15 minutes ago, MJB said:

Don't shoot me 

I am thinking we will see a change from ECM this evening towards GFS , it followed GFS for the Easterly and caught up , I think it will do the same here . GFS running 4 times a day will always show different scenarios . With us seeing ECM twice a day its a day behind with regards what we see. 

Sadly I think GFS has sniffed something out............just because it's on it's own doesn't mean it's wrong , UK weather law would suggest it's right.

I do hope I am wrong 

How is it a day behind?

We see both runs on the ECM for the recorded time, not from 24 hours ago.

It looks to me like the GFS has follwed the ECM from a few days ago, the ECM has jumped and it will take GooFus a while to catch up.

I find GFS is good for sniffing out the initial trend and then it drops it only to pick it back up again. It is like a dog:

 

sniff > mmm sniff bottom > sniff bottom > sniff bottom > oh look a stick.....arghhh! > sniff bottom 

 

Hopefully we will have some resoltion this evening on the initial low.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Radiating Dendrite

[Troubleatmill]

3 minutes ago, Vadoseflame said:

Disagree.

GFS has done this before.. sniffed it out first, UKMO and ECM catch up, GFS drops it - ECM and UKMO are sticking with it, GFS slowly catches up again.

Bottom line surely is that none of us know, would be great if all ensembles, ops, para's agreed but they don't. 

Agree with what you say but we've seen it the other way too just as often. Eventually they will agree and often it's in the middle.

[Buzz]

3 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Why bin the GFS for the Para when the former is verifying better in the 5-6 day range currently?

These stats jump around all the time. A week or so ago, the Para was verifying better (slightly). There's no objective reason to have any more confidence in it than the old one.

The point being that it's not a bad idea to look at all of the options from all of the models and extrapolate from that. Just because one of the outputs doesn't show what many seem to want doesn't mean that it's right (or wrong for that matter ..... ).

[Weathizard]

If we’ve learnt one thing over the years chasing cold spells it’s that whichever produces the worst run for cold is normally right The GFS and its ensembles did sniff out this easterly very early and it is certainly a large concern it’s now turned it’s back. At this point I’m not too worried as the UKM and ECM are the power house pairing when it comes to modelling European weather.

 

Unless those European buggers have tweaked the ECM programming? #VaccineEnvy

[CSC]

I find it pretty unbelievable that we are in a moment where this time next week we could either have blizzards or mild heavy rain. Uncertain times indeed! 
 

Please ECM weather gods..

[Panayiotis]

When it’s the GFS vs the rest, then the GFS rarely comes out on top, especially when it’s due to sending energy SE as in this case. Get worried when the UKMO is not on board..

[MJB]

13 minutes ago, Buzz said:

Why not temper your abject fears and reduce your stress by looking at the Parallel instead?

The Para ? Why would I do that when they have put it's release back months ..............what does that tell you

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

The mean is only good for trends so worth a look. As others have said, this looks a synoptic issue as to eastery or not (IMBY perpsective) so treated as such. The trend on the gefs is not great, yesterday the op had limited support so may mean something, or not?

 

That is a transient mean easterly for the north but a faux easterly for the south ( winds sourced from Iberia).

That didn't answer the question. Will the mean be representative of actual conditions? Considering the signal is watered down the further out in time you go how can you judge the actual ground conditions based on a mean that has multiple options within it.

Mean > Random Member Random member 

Means not really telling you anything but the general setup. 

You can neither rule out an easterly or says its a dead cert can you? becasue the mean will not not reveal the actual detail at day 5.

[IDO]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

So there is a mean easterly then it’s just a faux one. how many easterlies are there at t144 within the gefs for you? A low to your se is an easterly. It doesn’t need to start in Siberia.

Getting into semantics there! Maybe it is me, but I am looking for an easterly not one frame taking out of context; a low passing west to east and a transient easterly flow sourced from Iberia but maybe okay if we have a cold pool. We literally have tons of faux easterlies in the winter as lows cross the UK, but they are not an easterly!

[goosey007]

3 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

When it’s the GFS vs the rest, then the GFS rarely comes out on top, especially when it’s due to sending energy SE as in this case. Get worried when the UKMO is not on board..

couldn't agree more......big 12z one feels ....Ill say if UKMO and ecm remain unchanged then we have our easterly what ever the poxy GFS is showing on the 12z runs 

Edited February 2, 2021 by goosey007

[Don]

Just now, goosey007 said:

couldn't agree more......big 12z one feels ....Ill say if say UKMO and ecm remain unchanged then we have our easterly what ever the poxy GFS is showing on the 12z runs 

My prediction for the 12z'z is the GFS will show the mother of all freezes, while the ECM/UKMO backtrack! 

[MJB]

17 minutes ago, kold weather said:

The thing is MJB as my post above shows the GFS HAS shifted every run.

Its subtle and perhaps not noticeable enough but its far from consistent with how its evolving the pattern believe me.

For example, the 18z GFS shoved the limpet low well to the SW of the UK and gets absorbed into the flow that way.

Todays 00z stalled it out over Wales and drifted it before getting absorbed.

Todays 06z GFS take sit over Scotland before moving it westwards and eventually south-westwards towards Ireland.

Every single run is evolving the low differently from the last.

The ECM/UKMO/GEM mind you are being utterly rock solid and have had the same solution now for the last several suites, there are slight variations in the exact locaiton but all have kept the same pattern. GFS has shifted the low almost 500 miles from the 18z run to now, hardly a sign of confidence within its modelling.

Funnily enough the GFS 06z GFs is almost identical to that bad 12z ECM 2 days ago in the way it handles the low!

All that is not to say the GFS has not sniffed something out. Maybe it has? Watch for the limpet low over the UK, as long as that behaves we will get something down into our shores, its just how good it gets.

Hi Darren ...........please it's Marcus lol 

Yes and I hope you are right , but (we) weather forums do have a habit of jumping from one ship to another as it shows the cold , we were all tipping our hats to GFS when ECM showed signs of joining the party , I have a feeling a repeat is on the way .

[IDO]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

That didn't answer the question. Will the mean be representative of actual conditions? Considering the signal is watered down the further out in time you go how can you judge the actual ground conditions based on a mean that has multiple options within it.

Mean > Random Member Random member 

Means not really telling you anything but the general setup. 

You can neither rule out an easterly or says its a dead cert can you? becasue the mean will not not reveal the actual detail at day 5.

I did agree with you, it is for trends. So specifically, the mean is only giving you some extra data so you can work out the direction and chances of whatever you are looking for. At this range the gfs op and control can def be wrong and there are a few ens supporting the (true) easterly, but it is hard to argue that the last 36h has seen the gefs move away from an easterly for the south and the mean shows that? Hopefully all academic but the 12z will I think be when the music stops?

[goosey007]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

My prediction for the 12z'z is the GFS will show the mother of all freezes, while the ECM/UKMO backtrack! 

sounds about right this place will go into full blown meltdown

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, IDO said:

Getting into semantics there! Maybe it is me, but I am looking for an easterly not one frame taking out of context; a low passing west to east and a transient easterly flow sourced from Iberia but maybe okay if we have a cold pool. We literally have tons of faux easterlies in the winter as lows cross the UK, but they are not an easterly!

 

[JoeShmoe]

The updated MetO warnings for Scotland on Fri/Sat indicate they expect the low pressure to still be clearing southwards at that point ... 20cm even to low levels ..

[IDO]

Just now, That ECM said:

 

Nice, I would take any of them! 

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, MJB said:

Hi Darren ...........please it's Marcus lol 

Yes and I hope you are right , but (we) weather forums do have a habit of jumping from one ship to another as it shows the cold , we were all tipping our hats to GFS when ECM showed signs of joining the party , I have a feeling a repeat is on the way .

No problems Marcus!

I think its a legitimate risk, indeed I was one of the first to fire up the warning alarms back on Sunday that this was starting to appear increasingly on the ensembles, so its not exactly come out of nowhere.

However for now the other models and their respective ensembles have collectively poked the idea away like a stick trying to push some dogs mess out of the way.

Whats interesting is the 06z GFS is actually very similar to the 12z ECM from Sunday. So all thats happened is the GFS has flopped towards the old ECM and the ECM has tightened up towards the old GFS.

UKMO mind you has been pretty solid throughout.

Hope that stays the same!

Edited February 2, 2021 by kold weather

[frosty ground]

6 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

The updated MetO warnings for Scotland on Fri/Sat indicate they expect the low pressure to still be clearing southwards at that point ... 20cm even to low levels ..

If the models stay the same, there will be a red warning for Scotland eventually.
closer we get the more likely it becomes.

With the GFS being the worst outcome for all and even that dumps a load of snow on Scotland.

Edited February 2, 2021 by frosty ground