Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[NewEra21]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

36hrs ago the GFS was showing the BFTE  and ECM was having none of it. It’s hardly been consistent has it Models will settle down and find the middle ground, no model has been consistent with this...

PS enjoyed seeing all the snow posts from the north this morning! Enjoy it if you have it guys ️

On the other hand it always feels like ECM is always playing catch up to the GFS, not saying either is right or wrong but whatever the GFS is showing the ECM usually takes a day or two to catch on.

Edited February 2, 2021 by NewEra21

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

Morning everyone, the ECM 00z ensemble mean for snow accumulations this Sunday is certainly looking interesting.Hope the GFS 06z stops messing around now!

Dont look like its gona stop messing around at 72 hours?!

[TSNWK]

Yes I know it’s early.. but I’m not liking it at 72. Low appears to further north a tad over us.. small difference but trend the wrong way and likely to magnify....?
 

 

 

 

[ITSY]

I mean, it's not great so far is it. Lets see where we are at +144 but at +78 everything is shunted even further North than the 00z. Icon seems a half way house in the short term, although it's apples and oranges compared to what the GFS is sniffing out. Our window of interest for the South is from Sunday onwards though so time for this to go either way yet...

[karlos1983]

you can't deny the 06 GFS is remarkably similar to its 00z run 

[BarnetBlizzard]

I actually think 6z will be an improvement.

[sheikhy]

Seems a full on move towards ecm from gfs!!!!!yesterday had the small low south and west of ireland for friday lunchtime!!it now has that same low over scotland for friday!!appauling performance as always from the gfs!!!

[TSNWK]

06z synoptic wise looks like the trend is wrong.. however the uppers are several degrees colder for us most??
 

[Don]

Please correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure the GFS messed around until the last minute in the run up to the January 2013 cold spell and was out on its own?  Everyone kept expecting it to move inline with the other models but it remained stubborn?  That's not to say it's wrong this time mind and whatever the outcome at least one model will have egg on its face!!

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Don

[Ice Day]

UKMO / ECM / GFS 6Z at 96 (90)

  

Looks like ECM is in the middle ground, but definitely more UK than GFS.  GFS is not giving up here, but could it really outperform the others at this range.  I would doubt it, but we'll see.

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Ice Day

[ITSY]

Just now, BarnetBlizzard said:

I actually think 6z will be an improvement.

It's quite possible. The secondary low still wants to bring milder uppers into southern england but the initial movement of cold air south is much more extensive by +102


 

[frosty ground]

The issue with the GFS is not the small low but the low coming up from Spain. 

[Singularity]

  

As far north as the low is on the 06z GFS - note the cold air heading more east and less south.

This is shifting the polar boundary in a way that should support more east, less north movement of the Iberian low.

  

This seems to be in evidence at +102 but we'll see - it is the GFS after all...

[Blizzardof82]

Looks like the 6z will be ok, just a slight delay in cold arriving in south?

[That ECM]

Looks like another route to me which may turn out ok. Couldn’t make it up.

[Drifter]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

you can't deny the 06 GFS is remarkably similar to its 00z run 

Yes not seeing an improvement at all myself ?

Edited February 2, 2021 by Drifter

[IDO]

As above, the low that matters is in France on the 06z:

06z>0z>

It is further south on the 06z and that is what we want as this is the feature that scuppers the easterly. We also want a good undercut from the low coming from the west!

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

Yes not seeing an improvement at all myself ?

It may well get there, by 114 it does mercifully make less of the low. I could be guilty of commenting a little early in the run. School boy error lol

[supernova]

Gonna really stick my neck out here....the low is slightly more north and therefore it's going to be....really hard to work out what actually happens until the run is several frames on if not entirely complete. And then, even if it's a complete dog's dinner, I'm still going to ignore it until there's an element of conversion between all the main models or one or other of them waves the white flag and totally jumps camp!

For any new members reading, try not to get hung up on every post on every frame as you'll find the commentary confusing if not downright contradictory. The stakes may be high (even if it's only us nutters who attach such importance to the weather) but, in the end, as has been said many, many times on here, not one single comment on this thread or a prediction by any of the models' will make the slightest bit of difference to what actually happens outside. The models are a speculative (often highly speculative) preview of what may happen in coming days...nothing more...even if watching events unfold are, for most of us, much more entertaining than anything on the telly. Enjoy! 

Edit: For what it's worth, the longer the limpet low is allowed to sit around over the UK rather than eject readily to the south/south east, the more chance the incoming system racing across the Atlantic has to phase rather messily with it which thwarts a clean fetch of the coldest uppers from northern Europe which by Friday is already frozen.

Edited February 2, 2021 by supernova

[ITSY]

 

I have to go work now but one closing point - this run has a small advantage over the 00z and is a small improvement. The low travels around Southern England, into the North Sea rather than into central/SE England. This could enable the low to occlude with much colder uppers flowing into the north sea off scandi. It might mean we in the south miss the rain in the low's initial drive northwards but catch some snow in it's pivot south. Something to watch out for...

[feb1991blizzard]

yes, changed my mind now, looked bad initially, its that ridiculous extension North by hundreds of miles of the upper trough that scuppered the 0z, it isn't there now so nothing stopping the clean Easterly flow into the UK - game on again.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment removed

[Notty]

GFS Op looking a bit better at T+120

[Notty]

Snow moving south

[Mark wheeler]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

It may well get there, by 114 it does mercifully make less of the low. I could be guilty of commenting a little early in the run. School boy error lol

Yes it’s looking better to me so far now 

[TSNWK]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Just as i thought much better run!!!oh gfs your hopeless!!!

Oh dear.  I'm on phone.. what's happening beyond 120