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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

image.thumb.png.65191e7d1588331d3d325b369d9ac9a3.png

6z ICON not as good as the 0z ....................gulp!

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon at 120, just about okay, but a little bit too close to the GFS solution for my liking.

 

iconnh-0-120 (29).png

iconnh-1-120 (6).png

Yes it has moved towards the GFS without a doubt 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, MJB said:

image.thumb.png.65191e7d1588331d3d325b369d9ac9a3.png

6z ICON not as good as the 0z ....................gulp!

It's nothing like the GFS though.. probably just delays the coldest air arriving. The GFS has a much deeper feature by the same time stamps

ICON 

image.thumb.png.5e2cfe6172fac4f2b108f6a56daeb25f.png

GFS

image.thumb.png.437915934e107fae34833e88039239c4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
7 minutes ago, Vadoseflame said:

Because it’s happened before.. GFS sniffs out first, ECM ukmo take a while to agree then gfs looses interest to only gain it again nearer the time

 

hopefukly it’s the same situation!

Very true, wouldn't be surprising by the end of the week that the GFS is showing the coldest of the big 3 models. Definitely need to see it start reverting back to it's output from 24 hours or so ago first though!

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

See what the GFS 6z comes out with. If it sticks to its guns, my chances of deep cold will be reducing to around 30%!

Come on 6z, give us a stonker!

Edited by Djdazzle
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Writing is on the wall im afraid, the GFS is king at picking up these spoilers.

The ECM has been way behind all season and I fully expect all other models to sniff out the same as the GFS, the low simply doesn't have enough forcing from the north to move south.

Edited by DCee
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Just now, DCee said:

Writing is on the wall im afraid, the GFS is king at picking up these spoilers.

The ECM has been way behind all season and I fully expect all other models to sniff out the same as the GFS, the low simply won't have enough ummph from the north t move south.

Let the run unfold first!

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
Just now, DCee said:

Writing is on the wall im afraid, the GFS is king at picking up these spoilers.

The ECM has been way behind all season and I fully expect all other models to sniff out the same as the GFS, the low simply won't have enough ummph from the north t move south.

That is the main concern, ECM and even UKMO have been second fiddle to GFS basically this entire winter. Most notably over that Christmas/New year period.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
5 minutes ago, DCee said:

Writing is on the wall im afraid, the GFS is king at picking up these spoilers.

The ECM has been way behind all season and I fully expect all other models to sniff out the same as the GFS, the low simply won't have enough ummph from the north t move south.

I'm sorry but it's not a case of GFS vs ECM..... its GFS vs pretty much every model going. right now I don't trust any of them, but if I have to back 2 models at D5 it would be the UKMO and ECM, in that order. 

Edited by karlos1983
typo
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Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
2 minutes ago, DCee said:

Writing is on the wall im afraid, the GFS is king at picking up these spoilers.

The ECM has been way behind all season and I fully expect all other models to sniff out the same as the GFS, the low simply doesn't have enough forcing from the north to move south.

Verification stats would say otherwise, as has been posted numerous times. ECM is still the king. 

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Posted
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)

Jesus christ what's wrong with some people lol I personally think gfs is trying to find the way of easterly set up but with Atlantic pushing into the sw it will probably be a rinse repeat motion but with more northerly outcome eventually I think... it just a hunch atm

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1 minute ago, North East Blizzard said:

Verification stats would say otherwise, as has been posted numerous times. ECM is still the king. 

Respectably I disagree.

Edited by DCee
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
4 minutes ago, DCee said:

Writing is on the wall im afraid, the GFS is king at picking up these spoilers.

The ECM has been way behind all season and I fully expect all other models to sniff out the same as the GFS, the low simply doesn't have enough forcing from the north to move south.

The UKMO is the spoiler model.

Every failed close attempt at cold has had the UKMO against it Dec2012, Early in Jan when it was phasing the lows.

I have said for days that I am backing the UKMO it has not thrown any wobbles and I believe it will continue to be rock solid. 

Edited by Snowman.
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
5 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

That is the main concern, ECM and even UKMO have been second fiddle to GFS basically this entire winter. Most notably over that Christmas/New year period.

36hrs ago the GFS was showing the BFTE  and ECM was having none of it. It’s hardly been consistent has it ??‍♂️ Models will settle down and find the middle ground, no model has been consistent with this...I prefer to look at all the models and view them as ensembles and kick the mean ..as that is 90% of the time the outcome. GFS is a mild outlier at the moment, maybe it will be again on the 06z ??‍♂️ Maybe it will be a cold outlier ??‍♂️ viewing it this way saves a lot of drama and heart palpitations over 20 runs a day if you are viewing every run from every model!

PS enjoyed seeing all the snow posts from the north this morning! Enjoy it if you have it guys ⛄

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

No end to the drama. That's for sure. So happy to see the ecm backtrack over the last 24 hours which I for one didn't expect. Now we have the gfs picking out the spoiler low. It clearly sees something here. It isn't just picking this feature out for nothing. I just hope it's as wrong as the ecm was a couple of days ago. It would be incredibly gutting if the gfs has this anywhere near correct. The 06z won't solve it. We will have to wait for the 12z runs. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, DCee said:

Respectively I disagree.

in that order?

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
5 minutes ago, DCee said:

Respectably I disagree.

Well if you disagree with facts, there's no helping you!

GFS has pulled out some victories, but it's rather like an FA cup upset when it does!

I am a bit concerned about the GFS solution though. But GFS is consistently in 3rd place for verification.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

ICON blowing the low up in situ a little rather than clearing it SE which leads to a slight delay in dragging the coolest uppers west compared to its previous run but looks like it would go on to produce the goods soon afterwards. Slightly delayed (if correct!) but by no means awful.

iconeu-1-126.thumb.png.29bb340ede6e9689a0ac966c7af47aa5.pngiconeu-1-120.thumb.png.2f7ddfd9e824f544542f7ad339346418.png.

00z vs 06z

Edited by supernova
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
38 minutes ago, sundog said:

How many times in the past have we seen the gfs spot a trend run with it then ditch it and then go back to it again.  Hopefully this is one of those times .

 

 

14 minutes ago, Vadoseflame said:

Because it’s happened before.. GFS sniffs out first, ECM ukmo take a while to agree then gfs looses interest to only gain it again nearer the time

 

hopefully it’s the same situation!

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
5 minutes ago, DCee said:

Respectably I disagree.

Just going off the facts. I'd still bet on the ECM over the GFS, but its such a tricky situation, who knows. 

cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

Morning everyone, the ECM 00z ensemble mean for snow accumulations this Sunday is certainly looking interesting.❄️Hope the GFS 06z stops messing around now!

6351FD8D-A910-4A52-A17F-BB52DF5D632C.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

Why don’t you all wait? The GFS is only out to T+60!!!

it doesn't look good, the low is heading north  I really think the GFS has lost the plot comletely. Time will tell, if not I risk losing the plot completely! 

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