Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Mr_Pessimistic]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

If this happens every time, have we ever had an easterly?

No, they were all just dreams.....

[IDO]

4 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

The old and the new EC-plume for De Bilt.

The ecm de bilt eps suggests the op is as good as an outlier from d6 which is not a great sign. D7 day temps are -5c lower than the mean and D8 day temps are -7c lower than the mean. It would suggest the ecm op for the UK has to be treated with caution for the levels of cold it was showing. D9-10 are statistical outliers.

Saying that, I would take the ecm 850's mean if I could:

Post d8-10 on the ecm it looks like the westerly flow will ease the easterly away.

The MJO signal still remains of interest if it is not drowned out by the enso and strat interference. Sadly, the best we have got from the SSWE so far are a higher propensity for wedges and Arctic highs and they are very much a hit and miss synoptic with limited longevity, so yet another fail as we (IMBY) had in Jan would be a bitter pill. Fingers crossed!

 

[frosty ground]

Just now, Mr_Pessimistic said:

No, they were all just dreams.....

That's why they call it Fantasy Island.  

[Frank Trough]

looking very quickly at the individual GSF perturbations there are quite a few that look like the ECM/UKMO at t+144. There are plenty that don't though, including the higher res op and control.....

FAX for saturday looks alight - you'd certainly take this in most winters!

[Anthony Burden]

1 hour ago, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

comes to something when somebody is "risking their reputation" for expressing a professional opinion in one specific area...

I can't remember such short term GFS divergence from such a solid-looking ECM mean. Fingers crossed for c.10am that the GFS retreats though I doubt it will be a sudden flip. Not sure if a halfway house even exists for this 'problem'....

Hi unfortunately in life important decisions that are wrong come with some risks.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Political comment removed

[snowspotter]

7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

If this happens every time, have we ever had an easterly?

Yes 2018 BUT He’s pretty much spot on 19 out of 20 times 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Potential snowfall for the high ground ?

 

[sebastiaan1973]

7 minutes ago, IDO said:

The ecm de bilt eps suggests the op is as good as an outlier from d6 which is not a great sign. D7 day temps are -5c lower than the mean and D8 day temps are -7c lower than the mean. It would suggest the ecm op for the UK has to be treated with caution for the levels of cold it was showing. D9-10 are statistical outliers.

 

Oei, oei, oei...! Wordt het echt zo koud? - Weer.nl

WWW.WEER.NL

---

Sommige weerkaarten gaan wat kou betreft helemaal uit hun dak vanaf het komende weekend. Wordt het echt zo bar?

Please read this from Dutch Weer.nl

What the European calculation shows below, several times in a row, no longer belongs to the Dutch winter. The supplied air is so cold that from Sunday onwards it starts to freeze lightly to moderate for days on end and moderate to severe in the nights. Because a snow cover is ultimately calculated in most of the country, it can even freeze very severely in the nights during clearings (below -15 degrees). This is further enhanced by the cold overhead skies. At an altitude of 1500 meters, temperatures between -10 and -15 degrees are always expected. By the end of next week, when the wind drops a bit, local temperatures of up to -20 degrees at night will be calculated. Ridiculous. In the extra calculations of the European model, the frost fall is now also firmly in place, although those extra calculations are much less extremely cold than the main calculation, which has the highest model resolution and best picks up the effects of a snow cover, clearings and a disappearing wind. . The extra calculations have a lower resolution and are less good at it. In that sense, we do not have to immediately throw away the very cold main calculation. All the more because the upper skies are also very cold in the other calculations in the period from Sunday to Wednesday. Only towards the end of the week do we see (much) softer options creep in again.

[sundog]

How many times in the past have we seen the gfs spot a trend run with it then ditch it and then go back to it again.  Hopefully this is one of those times .

 

[Marko1690]

45 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

I'm a west ham season ticket holder. I recall being 3-0 up and losing 4-3 to Wimbledon.  I'm also sure there are some spurs fans about for this season so it's possible the GFS us right.. but boy we will remember for years if it is..

Lol, leave the spurs out of it  

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, sundog said:

How many times in the past have we seen the gfs spot a trend run with it then ditch it and then go back to it again.  Hopefully this is one of those times .

 

Not got much hope for the 6z as it’s been delaying cold anyways but hope this is one of the times it produces the good good, although not really worried as having ukmo and ecm on board is better than having just GFS

[Jarrow Posh]

6 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Potential snowfall for the high ground ?

 

With that set up I would think snow for most from Yorkshire northwards al all levels.

[NewEra21]

When do we feel the make or break runs will be, 12z this afternoon or are we giving it another 24/48 hours or so?

Something has to give soon surely!

[MKN]

5 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

When do we feel the make or break runs will be, 12z this afternoon or are we giving it another 24/48 hours or so?

Something has to give soon surely!

Anything past +72 is very changeable from run to run currently so id say we are giving this coming weekend at least another 24 hours. 

[johnholmes]

Tue 2 February 2021 anomaly update

The ec-gfs output this morning shows both having a trough e-w centred about Newfoundland, ec has a closed ridge between Greenland and ne Canada, gfs not, so their flow into the uk differs. Ec a slack nw with gfs from s of w and somewhat stronger, ec keeps some slight troughing into Europe but gfs again ahs none.

Noaa last evening showed a closed upper ridge over Greenland with quite large +ve heights vetween grrenland and ne Canada, almost no 500 flow over the uk and a faint suggestion of troughing into Europe. The pattern in the far west shows a deep upper low over e Russia and a ridge coming into sw Alaska, both too far west to initiate meridional flow in the European-atlantic area in my view.

Overall, including looking at the two ECMWF charts, see below, I would go with the noaa output, its 8-14 is similar and the trough-ridge set up in the far west has amplified somewhat.

So colder weather returning by the weekend and probably here for 3-4 days based on these charts, so out to about 10 days from today. Snow, not something these charts are used for but if a flow of fairly deep cold air does develop off the N Sea then wintry ppn is likely down the eastern side, and, at least, in the first half of the period would give snow where the showers fall.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

These are ECMWF 500 and surface charts on this link

http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif

and another link into ECMWF charts

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/

 

 

[Jason M]

4 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

When do we feel the make or break runs will be, 12z this afternoon or are we giving it another 24/48 hours or so?

Something has to give soon surely!

Imho it’s today. I’d even go as far as saying if the gfs say no on the 06z we are in big trouble. We are talking about days 5 and 6 so at those timescales the extra few hours data becomes really key.  Certainly the size of the envelope will narrow sharply today,

some sort of half way house? 

[Updated_Weather]

5 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Imho it’s today. I’d even go as far as saying if the gfs say no on the 06z we are in big trouble. We are talking about days 5 and 6 so at those timescales the extra few hours data becomes really key.  Certainly the size of the envelope will narrow sharply today,

some sort of half way house? 

I’d say earliest tomorrow’s 00z runs.. 6z runs recently have been poor so, we shall see.

as long as ecm/ukmo are agreeing, not much to worry about.

[NewEra21]

7 minutes ago, MKN said:

Anything past +72 is very changeable from run to run currently so id say we are giving this coming weekend at least another 24 hours. 

 

5 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Imho it’s today. I’d even go as far as saying if the gfs say no on the 06z we are in big trouble. We are talking about days 5 and 6 so at those timescales the extra few hours data becomes really key.  Certainly the size of the envelope will narrow sharply today,

some sort of half way house? 

Thanks for the replies guys. Certainly a bigger than usual 06z  GFS coming up, to see if it sticks to it's guns or begins a shift back to the ECM/UKMO solution.

[Djdazzle]

7 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Imho it’s today. I’d even go as far as saying if the gfs say no on the 06z we are in big trouble. We are talking about days 5 and 6 so at those timescales the extra few hours data becomes really key.  Certainly the size of the envelope will narrow sharply today,

some sort of half way house? 

Even if the 6z doesn't quite get there, we definitely would want to see some movement towards the ECM / UKMO.

If there is no movement, I agree that some concern would be justfied.

[NewEra21]

Just now, Vadoseflame said:

I’d say earliest tomorrow’s 00z runs.. 6z runs recently have been poor so, we shall see.

as long as ecm/ukmo are agreeing, not much to worry about.

I like your confidence, not sure I can say I'm not slightly worried with what the GFS is currently showing though

[Updated_Weather]

7 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

I like your confidence, not sure I can say I'm not slightly worried with what the GFS is currently showing though

Because it’s happened before.. GFS sniffs out first, ECM ukmo take a while to agree then gfs looses interest to only gain it again nearer the time

 

hopefully it’s the same situation!

Edited February 2, 2021 by Vadoseflame

[Arrows1986]

Well this is torture. My first day back on the ambulances today after catching the dreaded covid.  I think I will back off looking at models for a day or so and watch it unfold.  

 

A little cold and some snow is better than 13c in Feb so anything is better than nothing at this stage. Lets see what the beeb say this morning eh lol

[Battleground Snow]

Icon at 120, just about okay, but a little bit too close to the GFS solution for my liking.

 

[Timmytour]

I would like GFS to be wrong now  about as much I was hoping a couple of days ago for the ECM to agree with it 

[mb018538]

20 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

When do we feel the make or break runs will be, 12z this afternoon or are we giving it another 24/48 hours or so?

Something has to give soon surely!

Right up until 2-3 days away. In these set ups it’s always very knife edge.