Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Guest]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

But UKMO ,GEM ,ICON all follow EC ..

I know but if things can go wrong they will. Been here before too many times. The low filling around the UK has been a very familiar theme this winter.

[Griff]

7 minutes ago, JimBob said:

So yesterday ECM was clearly broke and GFS was the most reliable, today it’s switched!  Seems like people are taking what they want from whichever is the best model, rather than looking at the trends?

 

2 minutes ago, DCee said:

Another battle of the models I see!

ECM will likely follow the GFS, then both back track a little. So in conclusion no Easterly looks like a very possible outcome, more than 50:50.

One positive, mid January it was the ECM at closer range that backed off the gfs colder solution. Because ukmo never went out as far, publicly, they both supported each other and ecm came to fruition. 

GEM charts look messy but 850s surprisingly cold, so that's good. 

Icon looks very cold. 

TLDR more runs needed, keep watching

(dismiss nothing) 

[feb1991blizzard]

Well no faults with the ECM suite this morning - a stonker, you could say that it would break down, but to be honest when it comes to breakdowns the Ensembles have never really failed me apert from being a day or 2 out so tbh as the GEFS suite was picking the breakdown up a good while ago i was expecting that but wouldn't say it as you get rounded on, the usual 'oh youre looking for a breakdown before we're even sure of it starting' type comments when in reality your just discussing model output, but after a good few days of dumpings for the Eastern Half of the UK, plus given the propensity of the models this winter to place breakdwns or attempted breakdowns further North than the reality, it could be a 'few battleground heavy falls' type breakdown anyway, so we just need the GFS / GEFS back on board now and then we'll be ok.

Edited February 2, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[northwestsnow]

Just now, DCee said:

I know but if things can go wrong they will. Been here before too many times. The low filling around the UK has been a very familiar theme this winter.

Oh I dont disagree.

I'm a fully paid up member of the expect the worst club myself.

6z will have any new data so I'm hoping GEFS flip back.

Really the timescales involved and we still can't put this Easterly to bed...

[nick sussex]

I think it would be wrong to ignore the GFS because the set up is very finely balanced . Small changes can make a big difference here. However the model is on its own and lets hope it stays that way !

Whats looking more likely is any easterly will likely come after some initial Atlantic v Block battle .

And this isn’t an easterly in the true sense in terms of a Scandi block , ordinarily you wouldn’t be able to advect that deeper cold west with the main block so far away .

This is why the initial Arctic high was so important as that forced the deep cold into Scandi .

Then you really just needed the southerly tracking jet to help pull that west .

[goosey007]

2 minutes ago, DCee said:

Another battle of the models I see!

ECM will likely follow the GFS, then both back track a little. So in conclusion no Easterly looks like a valid outcome.

Based on what ? experience ?...........GFS has been consistant for days showing an easterly then flips as soon as get to the semi reliable time frame .....ECM has slowly smelt the coffee as we have got closer and showing dream charts over last 2 runs .....its 5 models (inc gfsp) v  1 My money is on the majority .expect the gfs to back track at 10am!!

[Blessed Weather]

A comparison of the UKMO, ECM and GFS at t144 shows the GFS substantially different from what the Euros are showing, to the extent that you're left wondering what it's doing with this run. The biggest difference being the ridge into Scandi with the trough pushed way east by GFS whereas UKMO and ECM stick with the trough. GFS could be right...... but against both euros??

UKMO  ECM  GFS

[Djdazzle]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

But UKMO ,GEM ,ICON all follow EC ..

True, but often  the model which has the worst outcome is correct. Just the way it goes for us in the UK.

I'm still 50% confident that we will get some deep cold though - so I'm staying quite optimistic.

[markw2680]

To me it’s not about who’s right gfs or ecm it’s more about the fact that pretty much all models are very similar to the ecm rather than gfs, so as it stands most of them get the cold all the way down the country....and as they say get the cold in and the .......

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Blessed Weather said:

A comparison of the UKMO, ECM and GFS at t144 shows the GFS substantially different from what the Euros are showing, to the extent that you're left wondering what it's doing with this run. The biggest difference being the ridge into Scandi with the trough pushed way east by GFS whereas UKMO and ECM stick with the trough. GFS could be right...... but against both euros??

UKMO  ECM  GFS

I would say 99% of this community are praying GFS is wrong!!

Just look at whats is on offer if GFS is wrong.

 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

True, but often  the model which has the worst outcome is correct. Just the way it goes for us in the UK.

I'm still 50% confident that we will get some deep cold though - so I'm staying quite optimistic.

50% hardly constitutes confident !!

[Nick F]

Looks like decent support for the 00z EC det up to the 9th in getiing T850s down to at least -10C for London - though becomes an outlier in prolonging deep cold thereafter 

[Battleground Snow]

ECM is an outlier towards the end, but at day 6-8 it's not even close to being the coldest run and is very tight to the mean

[Malarky]

If one model wasn't going to be on board, I guess we'd rather it be the GFS than the ECM?

We were in the other boat only 24 hours ago. Progress. Keep your positive pants on. Says the guys with a degree in multimedia computing and nothing to do with meteorology.

[nick sussex]

The ECM ensembles aren’t interested in any deepish low tracking up the east coast . Not a single member , 50 ensembles and the control say no to the GFS! 

 

[Guest]

The good thing is the GFS has another 2 runs to come up with the right (cold) answer before next ECM run!

 ( ECM) Lovely Jubbly! 

 (GFS) Miserable bugger!

Edited February 2, 2021 by Guest

[karlos1983]

looks like the gfs has been to a party and is now in complete isolation!! GFS was the first model I viewed with my coffee at 7:45am and I almost made it Irish as I got that sinking feeling. I’ll be honest I was pleasantly shocked when one by one all other models in the GEM, ICON, UKMO and the ECM showed the cold spell still very much on! Surely the gfs will begin to tow the line starting with the 06z? Those 4 can’t all be wrong at such short range surely?

Edited February 2, 2021 by karlos1983

[JimBob]

18 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Evidently Jim Bob you haven’t look at models the consensus is cold easterly.

Depends on your local perspective I suppose, not much consensus on anything south of the Midlands. 

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM ensembles aren’t interested in any deepish low tracking up the east coast . Not a single member , 50 ensembles and the control say no to the GFS! 

 

So that's GFS and it's pack.  Against UKM the ECM and it's merry band of 50. 

For cold we are 3-0 up with 10 to play.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

So that's GFS and it's pack.  Against UKM the ECM and it's merry band of 50. 

For cold we are 3-0 up with 10 to play.

That made giggle !

I went to a Man City Bournemouth game in the late 1980s ,City led 3-0 in the second half, it finished 3-3!

Now I'm having terrible thoughts!!

[andy989]

8 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

The good thing is the GFS has another 2 runs to come up with the right (cold) answer before next ECM run!

 Lovely Jubbly! 

 Miserable bugger!

During which it will move to ecm then ECM will drop the cold 

[Tim Bland]

Pick the bones out of that

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

So that's GFS and it's pack.  Against UKM the ECM and it's merry band of 50. 

For cold we are 3-0 up with 10 to play.

I should let you know the Crunchy Snow and Ice Day Committee meeting has now been delayed !

This was supposed to take place at 10.30 am this morning with conclusions published by midday ! 

In the meantime as Chairman of that I’ve authorized staff at the NSTC ( Nick Sussex Trauma Center) to go on emergency stand by and have cancelled all leave until further notice ! 

[Tim Bland]

I see GEM has got the orange and red crayons out again ️

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Pick the bones out of that

Looks like something my 3year old just drew.