Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Daniel]

Op is no outlier around two ensembles get -10 uppers into London at this stage down from like 10+ 0z yesterday morning. 

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yep! We cant expect agreement im afraid when this system is so important. If we expect ups and downs till thursday well deal with them much easier. No way will the runs churn out this low in the same position time ans agaim this far out

Agreed, it's too early to say how this is going to go, although I'd go 60/40 to nationwide cold and snow based on this mornings runs, so many options in the GEFS, (attached)

How's your mum doing btw?

Edited February 2, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Agreed, it's too early to say how this is going to go, although I'd go 60/40 to nationwide cold and snow based on this mornings rund, so many options in the GEFS, (attached)

How's your mum doing btw?

Without de railing the thread really not great mate!

Yeah lets see what happens come close of play!

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS, a proper latitude cut off Greenland high and yet a huge swathe of England in BBQ -4c uppers, you couldn't make it up.

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS, a proper latitude cut off Greenland high and yet a huge swathe of England in BBQ -4c uppers, you couldn't make it up.

Is  -4 on a continental Easterly flow the end of the world? 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Is  -4 on a continental Easterly flow the end of the world? 

fronts from SW encroaching - no - convective - yes.

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

fronts from SW encroaching - no - convective - yes.

Let's just hope to shift that low 150 miles south then we may be able to hit both at the same time... 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[SLEETY]

Stunning icon run, UKMO looking very good with maybe a blizzard approaching the SW and a very snowy gfs parallel run, the other gfs has gone back to throwing garbage out, and won't verify so pointless even discussing it what it is spewing out. 

Gfs maybe good at spotting trends but it's useless in the finer detail as we see with this easterly. 

[Captain Shortwave]

So day 6

UKMO

 

Easterly winds, risk of persistent snow in the south with threats from the south east and south west.

GEM

 

Similar to the UKMO, possibly a little quicker to generate the easterly and as such colder.

GFS 

 

Fails to send the low east and instead builds a ridge between that low and the trough over Russia earlier on.

GFS (P)

Similar to the GFS but not quite a bullish in preventing cold air from entering the U.K. and manages this later.

So the two models less keen are the ones that were dropping low pressure south on previous runs into that Iberian trough whilst the ones that took it east now look very similar to each other. Hopefully the ECM will back the UKMO/GEM solution to make this point.

[Chesil View]

So across the 5 model suites so far this morning we have 4 excellent anf one poor. Stop microanalysis. It's the big picture guys. I make that 80percent in favour of cold snowy outcomes. 

[That ECM]

Wow. If gfs is correct with the low then the meto week ahead video has  the position of the low very wrong. If Ukmo is correct then that will be with their thinking. So is it going to go se or nw? 
 

if ecm follows Ukmo then that would calm a few nerves but would still be open to change. If it follows gfs then duck because toys will be flying all over the place. JFF is always t120 plus in this set up? T72/96. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by That ECM

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

So across the 5 model suites so far this morning we have 4 excellent anf one poor. Stop microanalysis. It's the big picture guys. I make that 80percent in favour of cold snowy outcomes. 

I’d make that 50% with the way that low could hamper everything as just shown by the GFS!!

Its not far from all going completely wrong is it ?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 hour ago, Daniel said:

Op is no outlier around two ensembles get -10 uppers into London at this stage down from like 10+ 0z yesterday morning. 

I’d be happy with -6s!

[The Beast From The East]

1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

So across the 5 model suites so far this morning we have 4 excellent anf one poor. Stop microanalysis. It's the big picture guys. I make that 80percent in favour of cold snowy outcomes. 

Like you say looking excellent with an easterly of sorts and temps slowly coming down from the weekend onwards and the latest bbc weather just now  had a first hint saying milder for the next few days but a big shock coming next week.. ?❄?

[Liam J]

00z GFS control is nearly identical to the op! This is not what we want to see as we’re getting this close! Hopefully wrong another day of nail biting model runs.... 

[Mike Poole]

The big 3 at T72:

The low (see size of <1005 hPa) weaker on ECM than UKMO, and UKMO weaker than GFS.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Weathizard]

Blimey the GFS ensembles are a real eye opener, a huge switch. This is where I find model watching makes me want to eat my own eyeballs.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I think Ecm will also backtrack this morning making more of that low that fails to clear the South.

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The big 3 at T72:

 

Umm.  ECM looks closer to GFS than UkM.. squeek.......

[Mike Poole]

ECM T96 compared to GFS:

Further south, and I think we’ll be OK on this run, should know at T144...

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Umm.  ECM looks closer to GFS than UkM.. squeek.......

Not at t96 tho.

[Mr Frost]

Morning all

Classic N/S Winter split today - check out that temperature difference.

12:00

 

Beautiful UKMO this morning - would certainly bank that.

07/02:

 

08/02

 

Latest ECM monthly temperature (T2m) anomalies - week two...08/02 to 14/02.

If you look closely you can see the actual beast from the East...

 

Great start to the year! Big below average month up here for January.

 

All the best to you all.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Mr Frost

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T96 compared to GFS:

Further south, and I think we’ll be OK on this run, should know at T144...

Much different even at this earlier time frame. Ecm will be fine it's got a stronger ridge before the next low makes it way over in the Atlantic which will help to stop them merging together 

[KTtom]

9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Blimey the GFS ensembles are a real eye opener, a huge switch. This is where I find model watching makes me want to eat my own eyeballs.

...and emphasises one of my pet hates, people saying 'look at the bigger picture' , 'have you actually checked the ensembles' when you post a milder op. The ensembles are a useless tool and are driven by the op, not the other way around.

Ecm at 96 much more in line with ukmo..

Edited February 2, 2021 by KTtom

[Penicuikblizzard]

1 hour ago, snowspotter said:

I honestly think the signs are unfolding here for too much energy to get an easterly forming for us . The GFS insists on lows buckling an early easterly flow . It’s game over after that . Seen it so many times . I want the be wrong but I can’t see a good outcome here . The bbc aren’t buying the cold , no warnings from met as well . It’s just my view to be prepared for it going wrong that way you won’t start throwing toys about . Oh for the old days when an easterly would just ease itself in . 

That’s what I mentioned yesterday the Atlantic has powered up with the winter storm on the USA east coast and sending lows streaming across towards us