Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[northwestsnow]

I really hope GFS is an outlier...

A lot more uncertainty creeping into GEFS over the last few suites.

Twitcy bum time  ..

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

I honestly think the signs are unfolding here for too much energy to get an easterly forming for us . The GFS insists on lows buckling an early easterly flow . It’s game over after that . Seen it so many times . I want the be wrong but I can’t see a good outcome here . The bbc aren’t buying the cold , no warnings from met as well . It’s just my view to be prepared for it going wrong that way you won’t start throwing toys about . Oh for the old days when an easterly would just ease itself in . 

It's too far away for warnings.

BBC have nothing to do with the GFS.

Let's see how it's sits in the gefs.

[Mark Neal.]

Horray for the GFSP! Widespread snowfall as the weekend goes on.... far cry from the 18z GFS, 00Z GFS. lets hope that is the one, UKMO. ICON Vvery good too..

357 members online at 4:30am  

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO uppers T120 and T140.

 

What we will really need is a good run for ECM the UKMO can be last to backtrack on occasion, anticipating another crap GEFS.

Yes. its all unravelling im afraid, in the space of 2 sets.

Edited February 2, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[northwestsnow]

The stakes are so high here at such a short time scale.. 

Big big ECM incoming  

[carinthian]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

T850s on UKMO fine at T144, but ideally you’d want the low further south so there isn’t any question.  This run is fine, but it is just a worry that half the envelope of uncertainty isn’t fine now!

Yes, I feel a little worried this morning. The T850 a bit watered down and delayed for the SE over the weekend. We need to get that pesky low sinking faster and further east.  Not sure what to make of the GFS latest op. but needs a big flip soon.

C

[Mike Poole]

GFS // good in the end, but the spoiler low still there at T144, all good by T192, but this thing is on an absolute knife edge for the south now.  North and Scotland probably nailed on easterly by now.  

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes. its all unravelling im afraid, in the space of 2 sets.

I really wouldn't go that far personally but GFS is struggling to clear this low ,not a trend I want to see...

[Captain Shortwave]

The GFS really showing itself up this morning. For several runs it sank that low near Ireland south and only this morning it decides to take it east like most of the other models have done for a fair number of runs now. The chances of the GFS being correct are slim.

Day 4

 

Yesterday’s 12z for comparison 

 

spnto day 4 it is much more like the rest now. So after this the GFS thinks the low will absorb the cold air in situ and deepen in situ instead of continuing to track east along the extension of cold air from Scandinavia. Unlikely if you ask me and hopefully a couple of runs should resolve this.

UKMO/GFS(P) and GEM are much better as they continue to clear the low eastwards.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Daniel]

Mean got down to -2.5 uppers and now is rising

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS // good in the end, but the spoiler low still there at T144, all good by T192, but this thing is on an absolute knife edge for the south now.  North and Scotland probably nailed on easterly by now.  

That spoiler low you speak of gives significant snowfall to much of country.

 

[Kentspur]

20 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFSp is somewhere between UKMO and GFS op, probably a little more UKMO and gives a nationwide dumping Sat/Sun

 

 

Bank!

Not quite nationwide look at the far SE I.e my neck of the woods would be very typical if this verified for the umpteenth time this winter

[Daniel]

1 minute ago, Daniel said:

Mean got down to -2.5 uppers and now is rising

Declining now let's see how far... 

[Mike Poole]

GEM excellent at T144, the low has pulled away and it is business as usual with the next low sliding:

[icykev]

GEM looking good 150

4 ECM

Edited February 2, 2021 by icykev

[Daniel*]

Prolonged cold spell on GFSp so far we haven’t seen much output stretching it out.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

The only positive thing I can think of is the GEFS are only as good as the operational run they come from. IMO they are garbage and I've said this for years. They can flip flop at whim.

That being said, I said a few days ago I didn't like this set up one bit as there are too many potential pitfalls and hurdles to clear.

 

[northwestsnow]

Crickey I dont want to see anything like GFS 00Z this side of Saturday!!

Its almost cruel . .

[Mr snowman 2018]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That spoiler low you speak of gives significant snowfall to much of country.

 

But if you look at the uppers and dew points they are very marginal !

[Mark Neal.]

ICON-Very Good

GFS 00Z- Less Good

UKMO 00Z- Very Good

GFS P 00Z- Very Good.

GEM 00Z- Very Good.

Encouraging 00z Runs imo.... obviously the GFS Op is a concern and we will see where it sits in the ensembles coming up. There is a trend to make more of the LP moving up from SE, making it more more marginally further SE, but as the GFSP shows it won't be for long and then the cold air returns even for the far south.. widespread snow potential is still there! 

[Scott Ingham]

The models didnt even get tonights low right right which ended with a last minite warning! 

So to worry about the latitude of a low at 120-140 hours in my view is bonkers!

Were talking macro scale in the grand scheme.

Some models will model it furth south some north.

I think fi is at 72 hours when such a tiny system makes such a big difference

Jeez!

[Mr snowman 2018]

In plus news we have a light dusting of snow here in Lincolnshire and it’s still snowing !

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The models didnt even get tonights low right right which ended with a last minite warning! 

So to worry about the latitude of a low at 120-140 hours in my view is bonkers!

Were talking macro scale in the grand scheme.

Some models will model it furth south some north.

I think fi is at 72 hours when such a tiny system makes such a big difference

Jeez!

Yes, my first post this morning was at T72 and there was a significant difference between UKMO and GFS even then.  Normally one wouldn’t post the T72!

[Mucka]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The only positive thing I can think of is the GEFS are only as good as the operational run they come from. IMO they are garbage and I've said this for years. They can flip flop at whim.

That being said, I said a few days ago I didn't like this set up one bit as there are too many potential pitfalls and hurdles to clear.

 

The Op isn't an outlier but it is at least among smaller cluster of less cold runs at day 7

Let's hope it drops the idea soon and gets no support from ECM

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Yes, my first post this morning was at T72 and there was a significant difference between UKMO and GFS even then.  Normally one wouldn’t post the T72!

Yep! We cant expect agreement im afraid when this system is so important. If we expect ups and downs till thursday well deal with them much easier. No way will the runs churn out this low in the same position time ans agaim this far out