Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Jason M]

11 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Well Helen Willets thinks -12c uppers will bring temps of 3c and above

 

BFTP

Or she might not be expecting those uppers?

[kumquat]

9 minutes ago, spayne said:

oh dear.!!

Looks OK to me. DP / 2m temps around 0C, 850s at -9C, and a few cms of snow??

[Snowman.]

44 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

UKMO 144 for the SE...

Says gfs up at the no? Above 2nd half of the picture

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Says gfs up at the no? Above 2nd half of the picture

How strange!,i def clicked on the UKMO...

[Battleground Snow]

ECM 18z has the low centered just north of Newcastle at 72 hours and a tad weaker than the GFS which has it just west of Galway, make of that what you will, but a fairly big difference in location.

[Daniel*]

14 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM 18z has the low centered just north of Newcastle at 72 hours and a tad weaker than the GFS which has it just west of Galway, make of that what you will, but a fairly big difference in location.

Not sure what you’re seeing the 12z was centred more NE no real difference really this isn’t trouble maker low either that’s in Spain at that time. GFS alone with quicker easterly on Saturday that drops low south from Ireland. 

[Battleground Snow]

18 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Not sure what you’re seeing the 12z was centred more NE no real difference really this isn’t trouble maker low either that’s in Spain at that time. GFS alone with quicker easterly on Saturday that drops low south from Ireland. 

Yes you are correct, it was just an observation, the low dropping from Ireland into Biscay seems to give the system energy when it comes back north towards the UK, where as on the ECM 18z I don't think this would happen.

Looking at the GFS 18z again it does seem an unusual path for a system to take, look how fast it moves from Biscay up to the north sea in just 12 hours

[jason6347]

Icon starting to roll now ,big set of 00z I think coming up,

[Battleground Snow]

Icon a little slower with getting the easterly in, now we watch to see if it develops like the 18z GFS or not..

[Snowman.]

Icon is good, slower but avoids any GFS calamity. 
 

Low centred over northern Italy 

Edit: Even at the early hours of 3:26AM I was beaten

Edited February 2, 2021 by Snowman.

[Cheshire Freeze]

ICON excellent at this point- Greenland heights being bolstered by Pacific ridging cutting into the heart of the Arctic-

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Icon is good, slower but avoids any GFS calamity. 
 

Low centred over northern Italy 

Edit: Even at the early hours of 3:26AM I was beaten

I'm hoping to see alot of people for the icon run.

@Mike Poole promised us an appearance.

156 is COLD and nothing like the GFS

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

ICON excellent at this point- Greenland heights being bolstered by Pacific ridging cutting into the heart of the Arctic-

Truly beautiful run that, lows sliding very much a classic memorable cold spell.

 

If it comes off

[jason6347]

Can’t be good for the heart this model watching  lol but a good start from the icon,

[Snowman.]

Icon just gets better low approaching SW, would look be a snow maker!

Edited February 2, 2021 by Snowman.

[Daniel]

Icon takes its time but gets there in the end. Good to see its not following the gfs 18z route 

[Andypvfc]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

ICON excellent at this point- Greenland heights being bolstered by Pacific ridging cutting into the heart of the Arctic-

But will it give Crewe any snow. Or do we need more of a Battleground set up.

The 2018 BFTE wasn't good for us tbh mate, as compared to the minus 15s in 2010, it wasn't even that cold. We need either a 2010 cold spell of minus 15s or a 1996 Snow event.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Andypvfc said:

But will it give Crewe any snow. Or do we need more of a Battleground set up.

The 2018 BFTE wasn't good for us tbh mate, as compared to the minus 15s in 2010, it wasn't even that cold. We need either a 2010 cold spell of minus 15s or a 1996 Snow event.

2010 was exceptional because it hit close to the winter solstice. It allowed for maximum radiative cooling. 2018 came at the end of Feb and by that point, the sun was higher in the sky and the land took more cooling overnight and had less time to do so. It's the reason why I'd rather get severe cold late December/early January- that's where the records will be broken.

There will be the chance of snow for us if we can get the wind strong enough and/or any organised troughs from the east.

[Andypvfc]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

2010 was exceptional because it hit close to the winter solstice. It allowed for maximum radiative cooling. 2018 came at the end of Feb and by that point, the sun was higher in the sky and the land took more cooling overnight and had less time to do so. It's the reason why I'd rather get severe cold late December/early January- that's where the records will be broken.

There will be the chance of snow for us if we can get the wind strong enough and/or any organised troughs from the east.

Cheers mate, only just started getting into the Weather forums, so never really looked at charts / runs before, so def won't pretend to understand at the mo .

I just like to know what is the best time to start my shift as a cabbie, without getting Stuck on Kidsgrove and Keele Banks

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo 96 looking great!

 

 

[Mike Poole]

GFS and UKMO at T72:

More dissimilar than I would expect at that range, the roller coaster starts again.

[jason6347]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo 96 looking great!

 

 

Great chart at just 96

[Drifter]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS and UKMO at T72:

More dissimilar than I would expect at that range, the roller coaster starts again.

I think they look almost identical!

[Kentspur]

Beautiful Icon 0z run -10c to -12c uppers widely 

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Kentspur

[Battleground Snow]

GFS throwing less energy down to Iberia compared to its 18z run, could be important later on.