Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[karlos1983]

Let’s be honest, it won’t be the first pub run to disappear by morning. I Take some comfort in that.

who’s setting their alarm for 4am

[Don]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Let’s be honest, it won’t be the first pub run to disappear by morning. I Take some comfort in that.

who’s setting their alarm for 4am

Absolutely no way!!  

Edited February 1, 2021 by Don

[nick sussex]

Regarding the low in terms of the ECM ensembles for that time period not a single member has a pressure reading below 1000 for London , further up towards the east coast where the low deepens more on the GFS no sign of anything deeper than that . 

Looking at key points , so from my area heading ne towards Paris , that gets down to around 997 .

I haven’t had time to go through each member with the full synoptic charts but simply in terms of a deep low tracking in the manner the GFS op shows there is zero support from 50 ECM ensembles and the control run . There maybe shallower features but in terms of that track and depth , no support at all .

I’m not saying we can just ignore the GFS perhaps it’s found a new trend but on the current evidence the jury finds it guilty of causing undue stress to coldies in here ! 

[Don]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I’m not saying we can just ignore the GFS perhaps it’s found a new trend but on the current evidence the jury finds it guilty of causing undue stress to coldies in here ! 

Tomorrow morning's going to make for some nervous viewings that's for sure!

[lassie23]

Are we still in the game, been working and too tired to read through 5 million new posts lol

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Regarding the low in terms of the ECM ensembles for that time period not a single member has a pressure reading below 1000 for London , further up towards the east coast where the low deepens more on the GFS no sign of anything deeper than that . 

Looking at key points , so from my area heading ne towards Paris , that gets down to around 997 .

I haven’t had time to go through each member with the full synoptic charts but simply in terms of a deep low tracking in the manner the GFS op shows there is zero support from 50 ECM ensembles and the control run . There maybe shallower features but in terms of that track and depth , no support at all .

I’m not saying we can just ignore the GFS perhaps it’s found a new trend but on the current evidence the jury finds it guilty of causing undue stress to coldies in here ! 

Hi Nick, hope you’re keeping well? Any idea what the 18z performing like in the stats? Do they break it down by run or just by model?

Edited February 2, 2021 by karlos1983

[Don]

Just now, lassie23 said:

Are we still in the game, been working and too tired to read through 5 million new posts lol

In a nutshell yes, but the drama continues to be drawn out......

[nick sussex]

Just now, Don said:

Tomorrow morning's going to make for some nervous viewings that's for sure!

I won’t be around at 4.30am French time to see the GFS come out , being a bit of a night owl I’m only just turning in at around 2am ! 

Yes it will be a nerve shedding morning . The stakes are quite high given what could be on offer in terms of cold and snow .

[danm]

16 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

If you were just taking the GFS runs, you could say two out of the last three were not stellar runs for some.  As much as it doesn't necessarily mean we won't get the 12z run, it doesn't necessarily mean we won't get the 6z or the 18z run

Ofcourse, but then the pub run from last night was also excellent - so what do we believe? Best as always to look at trends across various model runs from different models. Unless the theme from tonight’s GFS becomes consistently modelled tomorrow and is also picked up by the Euros, be mindful but not overly downbeat. 

The mantra remains the same - don’t get too suckered in by stellar runs until they’re within 72-96hrs and don’t get too downbeat on the inevitable less good runs that always get churned out during the chase for a cold spell, unless those downgrades become consistently modelled. Hope for the best, plan for the worst. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by danm

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Hi Nick, hope you’re keeping well? Any idea what the 18z performing like in the stats? Do they break it down by run or just by model?

Hi Karlos , good to see you posting again . Yes I’m well but haven’t stopped comfort eating during the covid crisis ! So my figures gone to pot! Anyway in terms of the GFS , the 18 hrs is currently equal second with 06 hrs and the 00 and 12 are equal first at day 5 , at day 6 the 18 hrs is last , at day 8 it’s 3rd as the 06 hrs falls below it . I’m very dubious of its run tonight , hopefully it’s just a rogue run .

[Mark wheeler]

13 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Are we still in the game, been working and too tired to read through 5 million new posts lol

Come back at 6:30 am and you will know along with the rest of us , unless your waiting for the Navgem 18z like me

Edited February 2, 2021 by Mark wheeler

[A Frayed Knot]

10 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Are we still in the game, been working and too tired to read through 5 million new posts lol

No Wales is though.... . Ooops need to get back to my regional thread. Sorry for posting in the South East thread... Shoot me down again I meant the Mad head thread.

[danm]

2 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

No Wales is though.... . Ooops need to get back to my regional thread. Sorry for posting in the South East thread... Shoot me down again I meant the Mad head thread.

Yawn.

[Andypvfc]

1 minute ago, A Frayed Knot said:

No Wales is though.... . Ooops need to get back to my regional thread. Sorry for posting in the South East thread... Shoot me down again I meant the Mad head thread.

It's OK, I want to know if South Cheshire / North Staffs is as well

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Hi Karlos , good to see you posting again . Yes I’m well but haven’t stopped comfort eating during the covid crisis ! So my figures gone to pot! Anyway in terms of the GFS , the 18 hrs is currently equal second with 06 hrs and the 00 and 12 are equal first at day 5 , at day 6 the 18 hrs is last , at day 8 it’s 3rd as the 06 hrs falls below it . I’m very dubious of its run tonight , hopefully it’s just a rogue run .

Cheers Nick, mainly been lurking this year for multitude of boring reasons. Same boat with Covid fingers though

thanks for the stats, that’s interesting and I think we can claim D6 just about for the 18z show tonight. The way it blows that low up really doesn’t look right to me, but famous last words Fingers crossed for the 00z.

 

 

[SLEETY]

Euros and met office will always beat gfs in these set_ups.

looking too see if ecm and ukmo are even colder in the morning. 

The excitement is building

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Andypvfc said:

Must admit I do find it strange how Snow can turn grown blokes  into toys out the pram mode . Yes it looks nice on a Christmas card and I do like Severe weather events, but I've not to the point of losing the plot over it lol

Not even after a promised easterly only to be ripped away by “that ECM” at +72. Not that I’m bitter about that still...  

[Mark wheeler]

Navgem , so far so good  

Edited February 2, 2021 by Mark wheeler

[Met4Cast]

7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Euros and met office will always beat gfs in these set_ups.

looking too see if ecm and ukmo are even colder in the morning. 

The excitement is building

You'd think, but it's taken until yesterday/today for the ECM & EPS to fully come on board with the idea of an easterly, so not entirely sure how much faith we can actually place in the ECM at the moment. Good to have the UKMO on board as well though, does lend some credibility.

I suspect the 18z GFS/GEFS is being too progressive with the low, could be some absolutely epic battleground snowfall for some though!

[Andypvfc]

11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not even after a promised easterly only to be ripped away by “that ECM” at +72. Not that I’m bitter about that still...  

. Tbh mate we don't do well with Easterlys in Stoke. Yeah we get the odd 3inch to 4inch fall every 3 to 4 years, but far less than years ago. Although we did get around 3 inches this Christmas.

But the last time we had a good fall was in 1996. 

As for Cold, 2010 was severe with minus 15, most nights, but no Snow. The 2018 Bfte was very poor and it wasn't that cold up here, just the wind made it feel colder. But it never got much below say minus 4, which is an average cold spell. Again no snow. Even Storm Emma, got to Stone then stopped, so missed us.

We tend to be either too far South as per tonight, where its now raining over me, but Snowing up the Road. Or we are too far North as with Storm Emma lol

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Andypvfc
Spelling

[StingJet]

26 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Euros and met office will always beat gfs in these set_ups.

looking too see if ecm and ukmo are even colder in the morning. 

The excitement is building

What we have seen over the past 24 hrs is a classic pincer movement by the ECM Op to shame the GFS Op into embarrassment. The ECM Op for the past few days has been a major outlier with its own mean.   Of late the 3 have been reasonably consistent out to +144hrs. Post +144hs we saw a major change with the high pressure system around Svalbard. The GFS Op stalled it, the ECM Op continued to transition the HP through Greenland dissipating over Canada, leaving the north Atlantic in a typical winter zonal flow. The GFS Op 18z is very much a kin to the 24-48hrs old pattern of the outlier ECM Op that of a zonal flow with very little chance of a Scandi block and resultant mini / major,  long / short term BFtE. I am now happy that the ECM Op has now switched and consistent with the MetO extended outlook , as you would expect it to be. Now the ECM has revealed its somewhat guarded hand for a cold easterly incursion , and laid its cards on table , it will be just a matter of time before the GFS realises what the ECM has done and switches back to be more commensurate with that of the ECM / MetO evolution

Just to note:   The transition of the ECM Op to a colder evolution, is not as some would see it "getting on board"  the path to this cold evolution is completely different pattern than that portrayed by the GFS ... i.e. as above with respect to the large HP around Svalbard.   The ECM would never align itself with the GFS ..lol that would be "sacrilegious" 

Edited February 2, 2021 by StingJet

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well Helen Willets thinks -12c uppers will bring temps of 3c and above

 

BFTP

[StingJet]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Well Helen Willets thinks -12c uppers will bring temps of 3c and above

 

BFTP

lol .. may be she got her units mixed up and meant 3f

[Allseasons-Si]

UKMO 144 for the SE...

[spayne]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

UKMO 144 for the SE...

oh dear.!!