Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[sheikhy]

Welcome to the party icon at 96 hours!!!!

[Jono E]

As we discussed earlier - all the pieces of the jigsaw appear to be falling into place now, the time is near when we can all feel relatively confident. Let us get the cold in first, something that we all agree on. Then let’s see how this evolves with interest. I think we can be certain that wintry weather is on the way, will it be severe, let’s wait and see. Let’s enjoy the build up and savour the synoptics. It could be the one . The beast and cold are knocking on our door.. the question is - Do we let them in ?

[Battleground Snow]

^^^ yes sheikhy easterly as early as 96

12z attached for comparison

Edited February 1, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[SqueakheartLW]

A rather mixed update from me today for the 12z models.

GFS 12z

I shall get the bad news out of the way first in the form of the GFS 12z. After a very good start today with the 00z which had the coldest 850hpa average temperature so far at the peak of the cold spell of -10.4 the 06z was a downgrade to -9.0. I didn't expect the GFS to maintain an average cold peak below -10. However I will sum up the 12z after posting the average cold peak charts of the ensembles. In this case it is at 150 hours away.

Still showing an average easterly over the UK but it appears the core of this easterly is getting shifted further north again so keeping the southern half of the UK more under the influence of the low pressure and less cold air as a result whilst the core of the cold appears to now be over Scotland. The latest 850hpa temperature average at the peak of the cold spell has downgraded again to -8.3 which is -6.3 below the long term mean and another 0.7 in the wrong direction. The anomaly chart also picks up this shift north too as the deepest blues are now over northern UK and the whites and yellows are now getting closer to SE UK too. At this rate there won't be a cold spell left if GFS is to be believed after looking so promising up until this morning.

Mildest 3 charts from the GFS 12z at 150 hours away

3rd     Member 28     850hpa temp -3.2

2nd     Member 26     850hpa temp -3.2

1st     Member 13     850hpa temp -0.7

Coldest 3 charts from the 12z GFS from 150 hours away

3rd     Member 12     850hpa temp -12.0

2nd     Member 21     850hpa temp -12.0

1st     Member 8     850hpa temp -12.8

Mildest doom and gloom chart from the 12z GFS

Member 15     +258 hours     850hpa temp 8.0

Coldest fantasy chart from the 12z GFS

Member 19     +174 hours     850hpa temp -13.0

GEM 12z

Now time to get onto the good news in this update. After the nice upgrade to the cold potential on the 00z this morning it is now time to summarize what the 12z showed. At 156 hours away the mean 850hpa temperature came out at a new low of -9.1 which is -6.5 below the long term mean and is -0.1 better than the 00z was. This means at least that the GEM is still very much on board with this colder spell even if the GFS now wants to back away from it.

Mildest 3 charts from the 12z GEM at 156 hours away

3rd     Member 1     850hpa temp -6.6

2nd     Member 12     850hpa temp -4.4

1st     Member 14     850hpa temp -2.7

Coldest 3 charts of the 12z GEM at 156 hours away

3rd     Member 10     850hpa temp -10.9

2nd     Member 20     850hpa temp -11.0

1st     Member 15     850hpa temp -11.9

Mildest doom and gloom chart of the 12z GEM

Member 1     +384 hours     850hpa temp 12.0

Coldest fantasy chart of the 12z GEM

Member 13     +228 hours     850hpa temp -12.7

[Matt H]

CMA 12z is a beauty as well. Each model that delivers the easterly makes it slightly more likely to happen!

 

 

[Mark wheeler]

So here is the 144 hours charts from across the model spectrum I think we have more than a chance at this juncture, everything crossed we get to the finish line with this .

Edited February 1, 2021 by Mark wheeler

[Arrows1986]

1 hour ago, Arrows1986 said:

So can the other half put her washing out next week?

26 likes...thanks guy's...26 must be a record lol on a serious note shes german so very efficient. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment removed

[Snowman.]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

^^^ yes sheiky easterly as earlier as 96

12z attached for comparison

Looks like the GFS for same time now. 

 

Find it so funny we're talking about charts just 100 hours away and still absolutely terrified it's all going to go wrong 

Us UK coldies have some serious mental health scars from being led up the garden path so many times.

[radiohead]

18Z ICON has -10 uppers in Scotland on Saturday morning where the 12Z was struggling to get -4. Just shows how quickly and significantly things can swing one way or the other at under 120 hours.

[Mike Poole]

ICON T108, low issue cleared, roll on Narnia:  (if only it was that simple):

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Mike Poole

[turkishfella]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON T108, low issue cleared, roll on Narnia:  (if only it was that simple):

 Even in that last model where I live is outside blue

[sheikhy]

Fantastic upgrade on icon!!we will know if gfs will remain the same as 12z early on around 66 hours!!!

[ANYWEATHER]

What possibly could go wrong,,,,,,,,!!!

 

 

 

On 31/01/2021 at 20:30, Penrith Snow said:

You wouldn't think that watching the Week ahead forecast on the Beeb, it was based completely on this mornings ECM rouge run with blow tourch south westerlies next weekend. 

You would think the presenters would look at the bigger picture instead of just uploading the ECM straight on to the graphics.

Pathetic 

Andy

Indeed, as the public pay for the BBC you would think that this scenario would never happen but unfortunately it's a daily thing with there weather and general news....! Anyway 

[Matt H]

ICON 18z is fantastic by t120. Momentum is very quickly building in our favour now and I hope we can keep this going. The output is sensational at the moment.

[Speedbird]

2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

ICON 18z is fantastic by t120. Momentum is very quickly building in our favour now and I hope we can keep this going. The output is sensational at the moment.

the positive 850'd just across the Channel are perilously close

[andy989]

12 minutes ago, Arrows1986 said:

26 likes...thanks guy's...26 must be a record lol on a serious note shes german so very efficient.  Its very rare she wakes up to a few inches since living here so if it happens I'll send you a pic

Please don't send us a picture of your few inches 

[damianslaw]

More divergence in the models again today, is GFS doing its usual, spotting a trend, keeping within it , then when it comes into the reliable backing off, only tomorrow to revert back.. I would not be at all surprised, so expect 18z to be similar to yesterday's.

ECM has come round to a full on cross polar east to west flow.

Lots of interest, expecting this thread to be as alive as it can be in the coming days.

[sheikhy]

And so it begins 18z.......

[MAF]

as been said before, can we keep media forecast moaning out of the model thread. it's not making for easy reading having to wade through non-related posts

 

[scottishandy]

Just pop this here to help with snow depth speculation. Slightly different synoptic but similar surface conditions I think.

 

      

 

[Always take the weather]

If Snowflake Bentley were alive I think the models would impel him to buy a one way ticket to Cleethorpes. You guys and gals put the 8th of Feb in my mind ages ages ago so I booked next week off work. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

[FreezingFog]

17 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Looks like the GFS for same time now. 

 

Find it so funny we're talking about charts just 100 hours away and still absolutely terrified it's all going to go wrong 

Us UK coldies have some serious mental health scars from being led up the garden path so many times.

Scar tissue runs deep with the models and epic cold runs. If we are still seeing these charts in 48 hours time I'll find it hard to not tell the kids lol. 

[Mapantz]

If your post has gone missing, it is likely to be here

Please keep to model discussion only. 

Thanks.

[kold weather]

Just the very far SE part of the country not under air cold enough for snow by 120hrs on the ICON 18z, however thats probably mere hours away from being a non issue as well.

Frontal boundary edging closer to the SE as well on this run.

Lots of snow showers for the east coast of England and EA, more marginal for perhaps Kent on Saturday, though as said above, probably only a matter of time before it goes snow there as well.

Edited February 1, 2021 by kold weather

[sheikhy]

Anyone seen latest fax for 120 hours!?!!!