Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

EPS mean days 6-8 cold - coldest this season I would say.

So good !

[sheikhy]

42 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yes @ICE COLD’s 850 Uk charts brought the 2018 BFTE in!!

Thats exactly why i told him to use these charts instead now!!!reminds me of the beast

[chris55]

17 minutes ago, GSP said:

We are going to need bigger shovels!

I walked straight past the snow shovels in Sainsburys last week.......Was it a mistake....? (I do own a shovel lol, just not a snow shovel)

My sensible side says there is no way this is going to verify but im actually starting to wonder....

Edited February 1, 2021 by chris55

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

EPS mean days 6-8 cold - coldest this season I would say.

I just want to see that line graph come out now and hopefully the black line is not taking a solo trip down..somewhere in the blue area will be fine.. and hopefully a snug fit.. 

[Howie]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

So good !

That looks pretty amazing

[TheJCInsights]

9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Its like battle ships why don’t you just say Oxford.

Lol Andover 

[sunnijim]

13 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Spot on. Sensible approach. Very pragmatic, thoughtful. Smart. 
 

Not sure you fit in though.

 

seriously though. Sensible approach.

I don't feel sensible about all this! Trust me on that, feel like telling the neighbor's cat after making an announcement at the local co-OP.

Seriously though,

***I have been burned too many times and I have to keep a little bit of myself back to stop it happening again.

*** Line borrowed from 'First Dates' 

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by sunnijim

[northwestsnow]

If Exeter use the eps mean then the overnight update will make interesting viewing !!

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

So good !

If I read that correctly that has the vast bulk of the uk at least 6 below average.. think our average in the south at least is 6 this time of year.. ice day?

[danm]

The great thing about this cold spell, IF it comes off, is that it is in early February rather than late Feb/early March like the last BFTE. It was a bit bizarre having sub zero temperatures and heavy snow showers only for much of it to melt when the sun came out. That did diminish our snow depths until later in the week when we had a lot more cloud cover and the snow stuck around. 

Feb 1991 has always been the benchmark for me, and that was 30 years ago to the day of when this potential cold spell could kick into gear. Great memories:

[southbank]

11 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Spurs, 3 goals? Didn’t realise we had to go back that far for a run like this.

Ended 3-3 let’s hope today’s 12z runs don’t do a spursey and snatch defeat from jaws of victory

[SnoFlakeEar]

52 minutes ago, kold weather said:

192hrs ECM is again utterly sensational. 

Really is about as good as it gets without having a super cold PV lobe involved with proceedings.

I just wish the 72-120hrs was a bit more comfortable and not so ropey, then I'd be all in on the ramping.

@kold weather thanks for the fantastic posts. For newbies what are the areas we need to be watching with regard to 72-120 hrs please?

[chris55]

Just now, birdman said:

Personally I'm not buying into any of this. Based on absolutely no science at all other than the models are all treacherous ********! Prepare to be stabbed in the back. At least I can be pleasantly surprised if anything interesting does materialise

We are looking at day 5-6 plus for the good stuff, so that's a very sensible position to take. Still lots of scatter on the GFS ensembles, which means confidence in the operational run is low.

The positioning of the cold flow is still finely balanced for the UK. 

The persistence of the broader pattern overall is very positive, but we need to wait a few days yet.

I'd say odds of a very cold easterly next weekend around a 66/33 in favour.

[Guest]

Despite my thoughts that a severely cold and snowy spell is the last thing we really need and it’s hard not to get excited by that ECM 12z. It’s really would produce a winter wonderland! 

[Blizzardof82]

ECM 12z is not an outlier

 

[Phil Blake]

Fear not guys. NASA is also on board

[WINTRY WALES]

What I don’t understand is why don’t fronts push from east to west at all?? Always reach midlands at best in an easterly...well mostly 

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

If I read that correctly that has the vast bulk of the uk at least 6 below average.. think our average in the south at least is 6 this time of year.. ice day?

No that’s T850s here’s 2M temp anomaly roughly 5C below average for a mean a week out that’s very impressive.

[sheikhy]

Well if ecm is the worse outcome at 72 hours with that low over the uk just imagine how much on an upgrade it would be if it was to go further south in future runs!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I said earlier I would post the UKMO 12z on my bedroom ceiling tonight,well I think I'm gonna paste the ECM op on the TV screen...really its that good!! This model as come struggling and screaming to the cold camp after having a nervous disposition for several days..Now we have the big guns on board,it probably can't get much better,but I'm sure some of you will now be searching high and low for a downgrade...me...not a chance...this is what UK winter Model watching is all about,and we've waited quite some time to get to this range.

3 cheers to all of you,and let's hope the weekend onwards lives long in our memories..2Ft of snow in New York...we have some catching up to do.

Edit..bless you @Mike Poole  And @Jon Snow is so excited he's posted his ECM update in the wrong thread..the Nick F blog thread...your all getting to excited folks,anybody would think it was Xmas eve   

Edited February 1, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[pinball wizard]

Sensational output tonight, still think we'd all do well to exercise a degree of caution and manage expectations until its showing this at t72. That said, I'll be having a cheeky glass of port tonight and ordering some snowboard grease.

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, WINTRY WALES said:

What I don’t understand is why don’t fronts push from east to west at all?? Always reach midlands at best in an easterly...well mostly 

Possibly high ground  the east is very flat  hits midlands  which as higher ground  then off course the Welsh mountains   destroys all the precipitation 

[ICE COLD]

8 minutes ago, danm said:

The great thing about this cold spell, IF it comes off, is that it is in early February rather than late Feb/early March like the last BFTE. It was a bit bizarre having sub zero temperatures and heavy snow showers only for much of it to melt when the sun came out. That did diminish our snow depths until later in the week when we had a lot more cloud cover and the snow stuck around. 

Feb 1991 has always been the benchmark for me, and that was 30 years ago to the day of when this potential cold spell could kick into gear. Great memories:

Speaking of the 1991 feb blizzard where is @feb1991blizzard thought he would be booming the runs tonight . 
 

ECM T144 to T240 in unbelievable great

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

A time for some reflection on the latest models and wait for further runs before we start getting the snow shovels out in southern England. The focus is definitely going to be that LOW to our SW. 

[Matt H]

Another fantastic ECM 12z ensemble mean. Wow!

t144:

t168: