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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzards, Hoarfrost, Frost and Extremes
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
2 hours ago, sheikhy said:

According the gfs i get 30 cms of snow wtf!!!!yeh right!!

You must have been close in 1991, I remember it well as was living with my parents (LE14 postcode) and had at least a foot with drifts being much deeper 

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Just now, sunnijim said:

As much as I have enjoyed this evenings output,I have to feel that the ECM and GFS are both at an extreme of what might be on offer from the weekend.

It's so hard to not get carried away and feel we 'deserve' this to all work in our favour as we see it tonight.

We may well have another major model jitter to come in the next 48hrs that will lead to more nashing of teeth.

I'm not sure the weekend pattern will be nailed properly until Wednesdsy evening at the earliest.

As for the snow chase that could be as late as Friday evening when the finer details of getting the 'cold in" should be resolved.

All very mouth watering tonight for sure.

You shouldn't look at the GFSP 12z then...

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Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire

Bless all your hearts for not even one of you  referencing my JMA party pooper posts.
I get it, ignore it and it hasn’t happened right?

At least it’s only the JMA. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Just now, Drifter said:

Bless all your hearts for not even one of you  referencing my JMA party pooper posts.
I get it, ignore it and it hasn’t happened right?

At least it’s only the JMA. 

I mean even the NAVGEM is going for the easterly. 

Think the JMA is a bit of a outlier.

Watch the bleeding thing be right for once now!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Images of TV forecasts are not model discussion.

Posts have been moved to the winter chat thread.

Thanks.

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Apologies for the IMBY style event, but I am, by definition, central southern. Up from middle of Isle Of Wight and across from that bit that pokes in below Wales whatever that's called lol.

I always worry when we have the insanity charts we just saw, it doesn't quite make it to us. When the Atlantic barges in, it's rain by the time it gets to us, and when it's a true motherly, it's bone dry. 

This week's model watching is going to be intense!!

Is it bad I've told a few people to prepare for a snow event next Monday?

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Just now, Drifter said:

Bless all your hearts for not even one of you  referencing my JMA party pooper posts.
I get it, ignore it and it hasn’t happened right?

At least it’s only the JMA. 

I think the jma is reasonably highly regarded by the Met office? That said their outlooks don't really buy into the Jma solution.

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

OMG I love this post . Shows just what a weird but wonderful bunch coldies are ! Your post in a nutshell sums up just how much this means for cold and snow lovers . Bless you Mike . 

I bet he is here for the pub run as well

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Drifter said:

Bless all your hearts for not even one of you  referencing my JMA party pooper posts.
I get it, ignore it and it hasn’t happened right?

At least it’s only the JMA. 

I saw it and yes, of course it is a viable option.

Hence I'm holding back until the shortwave is nailed.

At this stage I'm 75% on a good outcome.

If the charts are similar by this time tomorrow thats 90%.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

  I haven't felt this excited since watching Spurs go 3-0 against West Ham with my mates down the pub.

Anyway....I'm enjoying this moment as well.....

 

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
1 minute ago, Drifter said:

Bless all your hearts for not even one of you  referencing my JMA party pooper posts.
I get it, ignore it and it hasn’t happened right?

At least it’s only the JMA. 

JMA is well respected apparently and I hope it’s wrong , The others surely have the pattern better as a broad consensus.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
3 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

As much as I have enjoyed this evenings output,I have to feel that the ECM and GFS are both at an extreme of what might be on offer from the weekend.

It's so hard to not get carried away and feel we 'deserve' this to all work in our favour as we see it tonight.

We may well have another major model jitter to come in the next 48hrs that will lead to more nashing of teeth.

I'm not sure the weekend pattern will be nailed properly until Wednesday evening at the earliest.

As for the snow chase details that could be as late as Friday evening when the finer details of getting the 'cold in" should be resolved.

All very mouth watering tonight for sure.

Spot on. Sensible approach. Very pragmatic, thoughtful. Smart. 
 

Not sure you fit in though.

 

seriously though. Sensible approach.

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Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
3 minutes ago, TheJCInsights said:

Apologies for the IMBY style event, but I am, by definition, central southern. Up from middle of Isle Of Wight and across from that bit that pokes in below Wales whatever that's called lol.

I always worry when we have the insanity charts we just saw, it doesn't quite make it to us. When the Atlantic barges in, it's rain by the time it gets to us, and when it's a true motherly, it's bone dry. 

This week's model watching is going to be intense!!

Is it bad I've told a few people to prepare for a snow event next Monday?

Yes it is bad abc

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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, (Very) East London
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, sun and snow.
  • Location: Upminster, (Very) East London
32 minutes ago, That ECM said:

How did the first one go.  

Spooky timing for me given my weekend reading.

With that in mind, I’m keeping my boom-stick firmly in it’s locker for the time being.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Just now, Timmytour said:

  I haven't felt this excited since watching Spurs go 3-0 against West Ham with my mates down the pub.

Anyway....I'm enjoying this moment as well.....

 

Ooh, I enjoyed that almost as much as this run!!! 

Anyway, this is just 144 hours away - maybe?  Back for the pub run 

image.thumb.png.53b2ea042bd4a6259988d4a7773f845e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
5 minutes ago, TheJCInsights said:

Apologies for the IMBY style event, but I am, by definition, central southern. Up from middle of Isle Of Wight and across from that bit that pokes in below Wales whatever that's called lol.

I always worry when we have the insanity charts we just saw, it doesn't quite make it to us. When the Atlantic barges in, it's rain by the time it gets to us, and when it's a true motherly, it's bone dry. 

This week's model watching is going to be intense!!

Is it bad I've told a few people to prepare for a snow event next Monday?

Its like battle ships why don’t you just say Oxford.

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

I had a feeling the ECM would pick up the baton really run with it tonight and so it has. 

Certainly the best model watching day today since the Bfte run in at least. With the whole thing looking set to reload again at 240.

My only reservation is that the ecm in particular is showing this at T144-168 rather than T48-72 but you can't have everything and for all we know the models could upgrade across the board again tomorrow bearing in mind the strength of the trend /signal and also just how much it is in line with the meto extended update.

Fingers crossed we can reel this or something very close to it in to the more  reliable timeframe.

Then it really would be champers and one of legritters suasage baps all round and certainly no shortage of ice to keep champers  cool. lol

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
6 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

  I haven't felt this excited since watching Spurs go 3-0 against West Ham with my mates down the pub.

Anyway....I'm enjoying this moment as well.....

 

Spurs, 3 goals? Didn’t realise we had to go back that far for a run like this.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.

This afternoon, before the 12z's I wrote that Scandi Highs had almost disappeared from the output.

Funny thing is, as wildly different as ECM, GFS, GFS// and GEM are, at 240h they all have either some sort of Scandi heights developing or a bit of a ridge thrown up near the UK (GFS).
Well, yes, it is FI and perhaps it's nothing, but worth noting.

At 240h, EC, GEM, GFS and GFS //

663607996_EC-2401feb12.thumb.png.351708a8464f67456b82e3dcc13787f2.png2034715667_GEM-2401feb12.thumb.png.0c1abd620d6c1bdffcacd77bed06919b.png1548357375_GFS-2401feb12.thumb.png.27067b35c35157b7c0af46f14aa5658c.png915608498_GFSp-2401feb12.thumb.png.e96a66c5991ae4da7a8fc25a0cf667e8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
27 minutes ago, GSP said:

They need to vaccinate everyone by Saturday going by these charts.

Got mine Thursday  Deep joy. Rain on that day.

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