Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
2 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Shame this doesn't have a D11/D12. We finish with a Scandi High, minus 12C uppers, and an Atlantic about to go under the lot.

It won't get better than this run.

image.thumb.png.4d25e841dd43a708779cb9f5c70c4b8d.png

I agree, nowhere but down grades from this but what a brilliant run that was. I could feel your excitement in your posts.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
17 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Classic snowy easterly set up at T+168 on 12z EC, especially SE England - similar to 12z GFS

ECMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.e3c2367cfb7b2e9ef73dd730d030206c.pngoverview_20210201_12_156.thumb.jpg.1c4149cbdb953d86f8ae49af0c2d67b8.jpg

South east England looks to get hammered

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

i suggest a poll to make the new phrase for FI into 'never never land', and one for 'nailed on' to 'screwed' 

Edited by MAF
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, FreezingFog said:

Be interesting to see where this sits on the ensembles. 

If its not very close to the bottom I'd be surprised.

Thats a very extreme solution from the ECM, once the set-up is established thats very close to textbook easterly from this source. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

EC gives us 5 straight days with sub -10 850s over pretty much the entire UK. Quite remarkable!

144

spacer.png

 

240

spacer.png

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
21 minutes ago, swilliam said:

quite a nice snow event for our friends in the SE as well

 

 

overview_20210201_12_156.jpg

Thames streamer if ever i saw one 

Biggin  Hill will be knee deep. Get in.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary
  • Location: Isle of Canvey, Thames Estuary

If this verifies, they’d better send all the vaccines to the west next week as the east ain’t gonna get done!

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

ECM painting a very snowy picture from late weekend into following week.low pressure anchored 

to the southeast very cold east/ northeast winds.Sure to see frontal systems pushing into southern 

England how far north up for grabs.All charts GFS/ GEM/ UKMO also showing this type of Synoptics

a way of yet but odds beginning to favour some very white times ahead for the south especially.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240, this just the most incredible run I’ve seen, beats last night’s pub run and that is saying something:

7EDF6E04-9835-4201-984E-15759215A8F6.thumb.jpeg.8b23c960ecb39bc64a5184ea554d6818.jpeg3ED9F929-0D89-46F2-A62E-1E166947347B.thumb.jpeg.7c8382760109515a1b2f5b2583e6c86e.jpeg

I get what your saying but ideally we need the Russian trough to sink south east a little which in turn will reshape the shape of the high. Because as the Atlantic weather front comes in it will push the winds southeast in nature and bring the warmer uppers, but listen this is simply just a tongue in cheek comment im well aware of how amazing charts are atm lol 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Location: Isle of Wight
1 minute ago, Summerstorm said:

No that's a dot showing his location on the map 

well let’s be honest it prob will be heavy rain here while everyone else gets snow! We need renaming to isle of  rain lol thanks for clarification tho ?‍♀️

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I’m still chasing day 10 charts.....

..FDA9C4D9-C79E-4A7C-BA80-1BFA9E86E99C.thumb.jpeg.e046f6d1b2b659e1e6c5137b5ba9c637.jpeg

076B0882-DBCD-4459-93DD-8B2EAFB71DF9.thumb.jpeg.ad65f4d58689632ebbc71a74ac182bbb.jpeg

Now we just have to see this reel in  

If the pattern goes in anywhere near as hard as the ECM I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to get another reload of the pattern down the line. It maybe more surface cold based but your not kicking that cold away from Europe without a great struggle with that level of cold estalbished over Scandinavia and N.Europe.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.

Now let's cross our fingers that the EPS will join the party instead of being reasonable and reserved.

Honestly I expected one of these runs to be better than what we've been served the last few days, because EC Op has been at the milder end of its ensemble for a while now, but wow, I did not expect this.

A little FI IMBYism: GFS gives 22 cms where I live and EC 27 cm. Both are good to me!

It's great to have a little bit more agreement earlier on. Up to 144h there are certainly differences, but they are more and more agreeing on cold coming our way.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

LMAO!

Stick Helen Willets on there and I can't even focus on the weather maps

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

As much as I have enjoyed this evenings output,I have to feel that the ECM and GFS are both at an extreme of what might be on offer from the weekend.

It's so hard to not get carried away and feel we 'deserve' this to all work in our favour as we see it tonight.

We may well have another major model jitter to come in the next 48hrs that will lead to more nashing of teeth.

I'm not sure the weekend pattern will be nailed properly until Wednesday evening at the earliest.

As for the snow chase details that could be as late as Friday evening when the finer details of getting the 'cold in" should be resolved.

All very mouth watering tonight for sure.

Edited by sunnijim
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...