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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Just now, Ice Day said:

ECM at 216

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This run is utterly sensational, incredible, amazing, unbelievable, wonderful, superb (delete as appropriate)

ECM builds a Scandi High 192h-216h!

Zero to Hero in a couple of days.
If only this weren't FI, but still, my confidence is slowly growing after all the big models going cold this 12z.

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Posted
  • Location: Bishop's Stortford in England and Klingenmünster in Germany
  • Location: Bishop's Stortford in England and Klingenmünster in Germany
8 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Double WHOLOPPS with a cherry on top

BANK!

I'm 53  this place has been a distraction for the lockdown - and lets cap it off with this lot coming to pass.

 

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This is fun - the low pressure developing in the stream over southern Poland and heading East

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
12 minutes ago, swilliam said:

snow depths to go with that. Should be more representative now as no marginality

snowdepth_20210201_12_174.jpg

1cm for me.....that'll do ??‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
9 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

WOW!

91CFA840-D35E-424C-BBD6-BC42312495FD.thumb.png.25598c9b4f5927922ff6b4ff8cd4e1ac.png07FDAD10-0CAD-44F0-B365-265966867D2B.thumb.png.494baf78a1fcfb9ca0171a664d876bb9.png

For us living in the UK you really have to look at these charts long and hard, because we never see charts with such a long Easterly feed. It’s a sight for our very sore eyes. Enjoy the ride over the next few days

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Posted
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
7 minutes ago, TEITS said:

This output is so incredible I am not even sure I want the 12Z GFS to come off due to the current situation. The forecast would be like those in the classic 1980 E,lys i.e snow showers becoming heavier and more prolonged merging into periods of snow. Many a time I read that sort of forecast back in the old teletext days!

Still think we could see the E,ly sooner than the 7th Feb, possibly this friday!

Teletext ❤️

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

*checks uppers* * nods appreciatively*

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As you were....

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
12 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

I'll hold back on the BOOMs until we are +72

and more importantly, the NAVGEM is on board.

It’s not as good but not a disaster , I still the Navgem 

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Posted
  • Location: Bishop's Stortford in England and Klingenmünster in Germany
  • Location: Bishop's Stortford in England and Klingenmünster in Germany
1 minute ago, If Wishes made Weather said:

This is fun - the low pressure developing in the stream over southern Poland and heading East

Sorry - heading west!

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Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

The evolution into this is more solid the further north you go. I can't see the northern half of the country missing out now, I think they are locked.

The south is much more dependent on exactly how the LP behaves. We are still too far out to have any confidence beyond really 96hrs.

I'm fairly confident there is going to be a cold spell for the south to some extent NS. Am I sure its going to come in the form of an easterly. Not so confident as these flabby limpet LP setups are very prone for developing minor secondary lows which could mess up everything, as it did on the 06z GFS earlier on.

I think we can be much more certain this time tomorrow. If its still getting our LP complex far enough SE then the rest will almost 100% follow and the GFS/ECM/UKMO solutions will happen 100%.

All hinges on the low between 72-120hrs.

Great explanation of where we are. Thanks for the reply 

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Posted
  • Location: Telford, 160m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Cold, Thunder, Heat
  • Location: Telford, 160m asl
3 minutes ago, Garthvader said:

1cm for me.....that'll do ??‍♂️

Me too

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Posted
  • Location: essex/suffolk/cambs border
  • Location: essex/suffolk/cambs border
11 minutes ago, chris55 said:

What was the famous John McEnroe quote........ I don't even need to say it! 

I did not slurp my Orange-juice?  

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Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
21 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Sorry I keep posting these but I love em lol . 
 

T168 @mulzy

9E917351-280E-4326-8C5D-17208E206D97.png

Keep ‘em going my friend. No complaints here!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

This will be my one and only ramp this evening ! 

If the ECM was to verify the snow accumulation charts will be useless , and likely totally underplay amounts .

The stakes are high ! I expect lots of early risers tomorrow morning to see the 00hrs outputs come out .

I was just saying Nick I'm trying to remember how many snowier runs I've even seen in 15 years.

I can of maybe a handful (there was one run from the GFS once that gave the SE about 50cms once from a SE LP like the GFS followed by a channel low 24hrs later, thats no.1 IMO)

Still, both the GFS and the ECM are probably up there in the rankings. The GFS probably gives a hotspot somewhere in the 30-40cms range. To have the 12z ECM be almost as good is madness really...

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
4 minutes ago, If Wishes made Weather said:

Sorry - heading west!

I'm thinking that for February east could be the new west!

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