Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[sheikhy]

We will know at 72 hours if ecm gona follow the gfs!!!so quite early on!!

[Cold Winter Night]

1 minute ago, Man Without Beard said:

Incredible charts this afternoon (apart from GEM after D9!) 

I'm still uncomfortable though. Do I just forget the 06Z run now? Although the GEFS mean is good, there's actually a lot of synoptic scatter by Sunday. Also, that snowy low needs to sit perfectly to achieve maximum snow, but any further north and it's rain for the south.

I don't think I've changed my personal view on the easterly in the last 72 hours despite all the shenanigans - I put it at 80% for an easterly in the north, and 60% for an easterly in the south. Odds slightly in favour, but it could still go wrong given all else going on around.

I agree.

That "6z run" is still in the GEFS, just not as the operational run.

Interesting thing about the GEM in FI is the development of heights (Arctic High extending) between Northern Scandinavia and Nova Zembla. That's new.

[Marko1690]

8 minutes ago, matty40s said:

No, the EU model will put a snow embargo on and you will have to pay an ECM tariff just for sleet.

 

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, not2bad said:

Hi All,

First time post here, hope you all are well. I'm watching the developments closely for the weekend, am cautiously optimistic but as ever things can change very quickly.

Stay on the cautious side and welcome to the mad house enjoy 

[Ice Day]

GFSP precip for 162, 168 and 174.  Very snowy picture for the eastern side of the country.  Too far out to be anything other than a watching brief, but we're not talking deep FI anymore, so my confidence 'Snowometer' has increased this afternoon to 60%.  The ECM may get me to 70% ???

    

[snowking]

UKMO snow depth at +144 (probably take amounts with a pinch of salt as I think these run with a 1:10 ratio)

If you want to view them yourself here's the link: 

Model charts for United Kingdom (Snow depth) | UKMO (6 days)

METEOLOGIX.COM

---

UKMO (6 days) - Current forecast valid for 02/07/2021, 12:00pm of parameter "Snow depth", model chart for map "United Kingdom"

It's 24 hours later we would ideally want to see. Terrific 12z output so far, though as has already been caveatted, everything has to go perfectly to achieve an output like the 3 higher res GFS outputs this afternoon. Here's to hoping.

 

[TallPaul]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Well the crayons are back out again and everything is good with the world ...look at those depths in East Anglia ..All just for fun Fun of course ...

... but still firmly locked in the drawer for the far South West...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This will be very interesting now.  GFS and UKMO have been holding firm, there’s signs that ECM has been pulled towards them moreso than an edge from the others towards it.  On board tonight....I think it’ll just edge a touch more....and I think it will take the others to have the t120-144 at t72 before it joins fully.....it’s nice to be cautious

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

Just looking at the model runs so far today, it’s no exaggeration to say there could be widespread severe wintery weather towards the end of this week and continuing through next week with heavy snow, drifting, severe penetrating frosts and ice..extreme wind-chill factors?..could get very exciting indeed!...just my unbiased opinion of course!

[mountsbaysnow]

1 minute ago, TallPaul said:

... but still firmly locked in the drawer for the far South West...

I live in the far south west and back in 2018 bfte i watched the showers look like they were going to miss us and then we got some. This run looks more favourable to my untrained eye.

 

[seandonghue]

5 minutes ago, Marko1690 said:

Up around South antrim here, 20 miles west of belfast

Nice northeaster be good for you guys, In Dublin here , we can have a thing Called .' Isle of Man shadow 'That can upset streamers  moving in across the Iriag Sea Dublin Region

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

GFS 12z is really just a deja view to what happened 30 years ago this week, which was probably the last snowfest February this country saw.  

[Timmytour]

Well after the news just now I hope I get to see some snow before the South African variant gets me!!!

[Man With Beard]

7 minutes ago, TallPaul said:

... but still firmly locked in the drawer for the far South West...

No part of the country will miss out if the GFS 12Z is right, I'm sure of that.

[sheikhy]

Just compared the gfs 12z 60 hour chart to this mornings ecm 72 hour chart and they look identical now!!!could it happen

[A Frayed Knot]

1 minute ago, Timmytour said:

Well after the news just now I hope I get to see some snow before the South African variant gets me!!!

Well fingers crossed and prayer to God that a severe cold spell could kill and get rid of this deadly horrendous pandemic

[TSNWK]

Feb 91 - anyone now the precise dates and able to dig out a chart - I do remember it well and was getting grumpy as that winter progress thinking its been 4 years since 87 and last blast - Oh if only I knew then that 4 years was nothing....sighs.............

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by TSNWK

[Andypvfc]

2 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

No part of the country will miss out if the GFS 12Z is right, I'm sure of that.

I wouldn't bank on it. Stoke never gets Snow in an easterly lol

[Froze were the Days]

GFS(P) still going for it at 210z

No more optimistic posts from me until 48z (he hopes)

Edited February 1, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, snowking said:

UKMO snow depth at +144 (probably take amounts with a pinch of salt as I think these run with a 1:10 ratio)

If you want to view them yourself here's the link: 

Model charts for United Kingdom (Snow depth) | UKMO (6 days)

METEOLOGIX.COM

---

UKMO (6 days) - Current forecast valid for 02/07/2021, 12:00pm of parameter "Snow depth", model chart for map "United Kingdom"

It's 24 hours later we would ideally want to see. Terrific 12z output so far, though as has already been caveatted, everything has to go perfectly to achieve an output like the 3 higher res GFS outputs this afternoon. Here's to hoping.

 

Jesus Kris that will go down like a fart in a space suit.

[TSNWK]

Just now, Andypvfc said:

I wouldn't bank on it. Stoke never gets Snow in an easterly lol

You've done alright with your north westly, and sliders this winter - dont be greedy 

 

[A Frayed Knot]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Jesus Kris that will go down like a fart in a space suit.

Or a wet fart in a milk bottle

[Andypvfc]

Just now, TSNWK said:

You've done alright with your north westly, and sliders this winter - dont be greedy 

 

You can never have too much Snow

[Mucka]

Just as a matter of interest GFS ensembles (Not a doomsday forecast or anything) have us a mean Westerly flow by day 10 with only very weak blocking to the N.

I have a feeling that will prove pretty inaccurate.

Other than the N it looks as though most interest for snow chances will begin next weekend as the Easterly flow strengthen and low pressure undercuts from the W.

How much that low develops and how far N it gets is going to change day to day.

It may end up moving through the continent and not directly affecting us or it could move E/NE bringing heavy snow and widespread disruption.

 

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, seandonghue said:

Nice northeaster be good for you guys, In Dublin here , we can have a thing Called .' Isle of Man shadow 'That can upset streamers  moving in across the Iriag Sea Dublin Region

Your best wind direction I think would be an ene in this set up as that gives the longest sea track to develop those snow showers . I can se a ne would be more of a problem . It’s quite rare to get the depth of cold we could see that far west .