Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Anthony Burden]

Snow on the cards for many at the weekend if GFS UKMO proves to be correct,

along with a very cold east/northeast wind.Some drifting possible,we shall see what ECM 

has to show us,exciting times winter to go out with a roar.

 

 

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, Riky91 said:

As expected Gfs 12z bit too extreme. Would be a dream tho.

Not the extremist run though.. Not really an outlier either.

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I think gfs is being a bit too optimistic!!expect it to simmer down later!!think ukmo might be closer to the mark!!

Probably, but GFSp is very similar to the UKMO and it has plenty of snow for most by the end of the weekend...

[Chesil View]

11 minutes ago, offerman said:

I think what you’d find and I have experienced this a few times in this kind of set up is with a low-pressure near to the south-east looking to then trundle across southern England on these runs. 
 

that would bring more widespread heavy and disruptive powder snow right across including the Southwest and southern England.

I know we can also receive a lot of snow from incoming Atlantic precipitation in the form of showers troughs all Mini sliders and when they bump into cold air can produce a lot of snow as well.

but I have seen snow migrate from the North Sea intensify as it comes across the flatlands of East Anglia and eastern England in general working at sway across central counties Berkshire Wiltshire and then into Somerset as well as Hampshire and Dorset. 
if this set up as shown by the charts verifies I think this now risk charts would increase the depths nearer to the time itself.

It is still a long way off in weather terms especially with the topsy-turvy production of cold weather so don’t take these charts as gospel but it does look like cold is definitely incoming just depends on the location of that low pressure

it could all change and we end up with not the cold in the south it’s still unreliable with regard to timeframes at the moment but it is nice to see on each run that the cold does keep making a comeback and does stick around on several runs with milder blips. 
 

on the whole ,looking positive we just need it in the nearer timeframe

 

Best of luck everybody really hope we all get some nice powder snow that sticks around for a good week or two at least maybe some nice ice days in amongst all of that as well.

 

 

I was thinking something similar as the gfs rolled out   Offerman

[Mike Poole]

GFS // T144:

Not quite the GFS op, but excellent nonetheless.  And the next low is going to slide here.

[goosey007]

Gem & UKMO fairly similar at 144........GFS different solution ......wheres your money ?

 

[Notty]

1 minute ago, goosey007 said:

Gem & UKMO fairly similar at 144........GFS different solution ......wheres your money ?

 

GFS 12z // at T+144

My money is on the GFS

Edited February 1, 2021 by Notty
Edit

[Cold Winter Night]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS // T144:

Not quite the GFS op, but excellent nonetheless.  And the next low is going to slide here.

GFS // is a bit of a hybrid between UKMO and GFS. The flow near the UK and the Low Countries resembles the UKMO more.

The bigger scale is closer to GFS though, especially to our West and Northwest. UKMO has N-America and Greenland quite different at 144h.

[Timmytour]

If that GFS run materialised (and please God it does!) there's going to be a good few headaches for the folks at the FA Premier who are already trying to cram in a whole season into much shortened period!

While there is no need for concern over the  safety of travelling of fans and the terraces in these times, I imagine the kind of weather being modelled would still inevitably lead to postponements.  And if we get a prolonged bout of cold with occasional sliders, (and please God we do) we could end up seeing teams playing four times in seven days to catch up!

Alternatively the entire Premier league sets up camp in Dubai and plays out the rest of the season there! 

[Updated_Weather]

What time does ECM start running?

[Liam J]

Comparing a chart from today’s GFS 12z with a chart from the 12z GEM on Saturday, which raised some eyebrows. 
 

GFS

GEM

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, Vadoseflame said:

What time does ECM start running?

from 6pm

[Tim Bland]

7 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Gem & UKMO fairly similar at 144........GFS different solution ......wheres your money ?

 

I’ll let you know in an hour when I’ve seen the ECM Not about UKMO as we don’t see the precip rates but GEM looks snowy enough to me ️

[Alpine glow]

50 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

Depending on the longevity, that could outperform 1987 for snow depth

Oh stop yourself!  1987 is why I am here!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Jesus H christ...UKMO really as upped the anti...marginal forget it...lack of cold air..not a chance.. need a pair of wellys...Good chance...this is surely the most exciting period of this Winter coming up..

 

 

 

[Speedbird]

Just now, Alpine glow said:

Oh stop yourself!  1987 is why I am here!

I stopped short of 1947

[Matt H]

Parallel run is firing up the North Sea snow machine next Monday as well!

[matty40s]

42 minutes ago, Marko1690 said:

Does anyone think it will get over to Ireland?

No, the EU model will put a snow embargo on and you will have to pay an ECM tariff just for sleet.

[sheikhy]

IF ecm follows the gfs im gona explode cos i dont expect it to!!!!!!!

[Sparkiee storm]

So after this morning hick up from the GFS, it has come back to show Nirvana again. This is also a perfect example in why we can't take each run as gospel, instead we just look for trends, and even after a hick up, the trend is a cold/very cold easterly from Saturday and into next week. It then turns into a northerly/Northwesterly and to go with it all plenty of snow and possibly blizzard conditions for the South East for a time at the end of the weekend, and into Monday. Stunning charts and for a short period, it does look like a beasterly pretty much. Don't post here much but always lurking and with these charts, just had to add my view of it 

[seandonghue]

45 minutes ago, Marko1690 said:

Does anyone think it will get over to Ireland?

Im sure it will Mark. Strong eastlier. what part Ireland , you in

[Man With Beard]

Incredible charts this afternoon (apart from GEM after D9!) 

I'm still uncomfortable though. Do I just forget the 06Z run now? Although the GEFS mean is good, there's actually a lot of synoptic scatter by Sunday. Also, that snowy low needs to sit perfectly to achieve maximum snow, but any further north and it's rain for the south.

I don't think I've changed my personal view on the easterly in the last 72 hours despite all the shenanigans - I put it at 80% for an easterly in the north, and 60% for an easterly in the south. Odds slightly in favour, but it could still go wrong given all else going on around.

[not2bad]

Hi All,

First time post here, hope you all are well. I'm watching the developments closely for the weekend, am cautiously optimistic but as ever things can change very quickly.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

55 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I take it all back, @BLAST FROM THE PAST... A winter on a par with some of the 20th Century's could indeed materialise!

    

Lol only if we get there...but it’s gaining traction though...superb GFS and UKMO ...again!  Para looking awesome.  I don’t think I’ll be delivering food to countryside properties at this rate next weekend onwards

 

BFTP

[Marko1690]

5 minutes ago, seandonghue said:

Im sure it will Mark. Strong eastlier. what part Ireland , you in

Up around South antrim here, 20 miles west of belfast