Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[radiohead]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

My god the control is following the op!!!but isnt that what it normally does anyway?!

The control run is the same as the OP, just run at a lower resolution, so you will often only see major changes at an extended range.

[sheikhy]

Now watch the ecm be a noob and ruin everyones evening on here!!!

[Ice Day]

Control at 144 is very much on the same page

  

Looking at the mean for the same time, clearly plenty of support

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, MR_E said:

South West Wales/England seem to miss out on the fun here unfortunately

I wouldn’t take these snow charts too literally, but the further west you are the less you will benefit from an easterly ..except Ireland as the Irish Sea breathes life into the showers.  GEM is good for you as the low is near the south coast so thickness / low instability helps 

[swebby]

1 minute ago, MR_E said:

South West Wales/England seem to miss out on the fun here unfortunately

Not unusual early doors from an easterly set up.  We will need the easterly to become established then a low (or lows) to come from the Atlantic and "slide" south east, Southern Ireland down into France.  That can be produce a lot of snow especially for Southern Ireland.   

If you get a low that is just the right amount south and runs west to east through the channel (Channel runner) that can be an absolute dumping for the SW/ Southern coastal counties and Channel Islands, but that's a rare beast.

[radiohead]

7 minutes ago, Marko1690 said:

Does anyone think it will get over to Ireland?

The east would see plenty of snow showers if the GFS 12Z actually happened, yes.

[tight isobar]

Ens>supporting backing the Op!! @drumb roll an epic spell incoming..?

Edited February 1, 2021 by tight isobar

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Parallel being a bit stubborn, if that means anything at all

Two issues which all the outputs have to overcome , the shortwave south of Greenland which hinders the ridge from edging further sw and putting more forcing on the limpet shortwave . That chart highlights why I’d urge people to wait until tomorrow before ordering their sledges . The para should still get there eventually.  

[ALL ABOARD]

25 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

According the gfs i get 30 cms of snow wtf!!!!yeh right!!

If the GFS verified as shown.. 

Parts of South england would get more than that in my opinion. 

There is no way models would be able to pick up the huge snow showers that would be generated. 

Usually as they move in land as well they tend to merge and create frontal bands, the instability would cause thundersnow as well. 

All hypothetical but would be some serious conditions conductive to huge snowfalls. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by ALL ABOARD

[Snowman.]

Para is likely to end up looking like the UKMO. Very similar in terms of how they handle the shortwave over Scandi. 

Unlikely to repeat the GFS 12z however.

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Snowman.

[Notty]

7 minutes ago, radiohead said:

12Z GEM

I'm sure that GFS (or //) picked up on this basic setup over a week ago.

I've had 1st Feb and 8th Feb in my mind for snow for ages now (we had snow yesterday). I can't a way to look at my old posts though. Mt theory is that GFS picks the big picture up very early, fafs around with it for a week and then decides it was right all along. I know it is only a computer model BTW  but you get my drift.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just seen the UKMO, almost a boom!

[chapmanslade]

Once the easterly flow is in place there will be minor features and troughs that will get all the way through to the west so don't get too concerned about snow depths

[supernova]

GFS 12z Op and Control very similar track out to the weekend (on the ensembles). Colder end of the suite, absolutely, but outliers....mmm, I'll let you decide (but I would argue probably not - so far!).

Edit: Easier to see respective tracks out to Mon 8th here:-

Edited February 1, 2021 by supernova

[Notty]

Still only good agreement on GEFS until 5th then spaghetti ...

 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, supernova said:

Op and Control very similar track out to the weekend (on the ensembles). Colder end of the suite, yes, outliers....no not really (or at least not so far).

 

For once its at least gone towards the lower end of the ensembles!!!!normally at the higher end recently!

[Matt H]

The ensemble mean is fantastic out to t162!

[offerman]

I think what you’d find and I have experienced this a few times in this kind of set up is with a low-pressure near to the south-east looking to then trundle across southern England on these runs. 
 

that would bring more widespread heavy and disruptive powder snow right across including the Southwest and southern England.

I know we can also receive a lot of snow from incoming Atlantic precipitation in the form of showers troughs all Mini sliders and when they bump into cold air can produce a lot of snow as well.

but I have seen snow migrate from the North Sea intensify as it comes across the flatlands of East Anglia and eastern England in general working at sway across central counties Berkshire Wiltshire and then into Somerset as well as Hampshire and Dorset. 
if this set up as shown by the charts verifies I think this now risk charts would increase the depths nearer to the time itself.

It is still a long way off in weather terms especially with the topsy-turvy production of cold weather so don’t take these charts as gospel but it does look like cold is definitely incoming just depends on the location of that low pressure

it could all change and we end up with not the cold in the south it’s still unreliable with regard to timeframes at the moment but it is nice to see on each run that the cold does keep making a comeback and does stick around on several runs with milder blips. 
 

on the whole ,looking positive we just need it in the nearer timeframe

 

Best of luck everybody really hope we all get some nice powder snow that sticks around for a good week or two at least maybe some nice ice days in amongst all of that as well.

 

 

[goosey007]

Gem attacking from the north at day 8 .....showing 36 hours of snow before ..so not a bad solution for all as well...seems all roads lead to the jackpot

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Lol I'll look forward to my 0-1cm.....

Thought the 12Z would turn is place into a frenzy, however the Ops run is probably going to be one of the colder, snowier members of the ensembles like its 06Z polar opposite from this morning. 

look forward to my 0cms! but purely for fun, massive improvement though on 06Z

[Notty]

METO T+120 -v- //

[southbank]

Prob another 48 hours before we can break out the “ it’s a dry easterly “

[sheikhy]

I think gfs is being a bit too optimistic!!expect it to simmer down later!!think ukmo might be closer to the mark!!

[Riky91]

9 minutes ago, Notty said:

Still only good agreement on GEFS until 5th then spaghetti ...

 

As expected Gfs 12z bit too extreme. Would be a dream tho.

[Battleground Snow]

Para at 138