Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Cloud 10]

A foot of snow for parts of the SE,double that for the Scots!

 

[Liam J]

Yikes! what can you say about the 12z GFS... Severe cold & widespread drifting snow. Very harsh conditions indeed if the 12z was to verify. 
 

Edited February 1, 2021 by DisruptiveGust

[frosty ground]

Nice westerly element into north west England, not a million miles are from January 4th 2010. Details like this can only become relevant if the easterly hits.

[Singularity]

 

Huh?

GEM suggests yet another route, where the low develops strongly overhead and wraps in cold air during Friday. Difficult to get the continental easterly involved much from there but the 00z managed it to some degree.

Such a wide range of outcomes appearing for just 4 days away.

 

Interesting that even this solution is now shifting that low to our southeast. Seems to be a consistent theme of the 12z runs - but surrounded by chaos.

[The Northern Ramper]

We need to see these charts by Wednesday 12z, before that everything comes with a caveat.

[Captain Shortwave]

GEM running now. Day 5

 

A touch further north with that low. The easterly is incoming though as it clears away.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 144 is utterly spectacular...

That air will be very very cold,across a warmish sea,look at the isobar.. 

That has to be a recipe for streamers.

[sheikhy]

According the gfs i get 30 cms of snow wtf!!!!yeh right!!

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Singularity said:

 

Huh?

GEM suggests yet another route, where the low develops strongly overhead and wraps in cold air during Friday. Difficult to get the continental easterly involved much from there but the 00z managed it to some degree.

Such a wide range of outcomes appearing for just 4 days away.

 

Interesting that even this solution is now shifting that low to our southeast. Seems to be a consistent theme of the 12z runs - but surrounded by chaos.

Yes its looks a bit slower, but it's corrected south east compared to its 00z... Will look very good by 150 is my guess 

[Cold Winter Night]

1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

A foot of snow for parts of the SE,double that for the Scots!

 

My location in Holland is near the edge of this map.

22 cm, matching the amount we had on December 19, 2010. I'd take that!

[Stu_London]

5 days into the cold snap and no easy route back to mild

[Tom Jarvis]

17 minutes ago, Audaxian said:

Had some snow (the fat wet stuff) falling mixed in with rain in the last cold spell where I am (Uckfield). We were just a little too far south, I heard not far north of us got a decent covering.

 

Yup, me too!

Just up the road from you 

[Candice Bartley]

1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

A foot of snow for parts of the SE,double that for the Scots!

 

If only these charts would actually come off not seen a flake in North East Lincolnshire but I am right on the coast 

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

A foot of snow for parts of the SE,double that for the Scots!

 

Lol I'll look forward to my 0-1cm.....

Thought the 12Z would turn is place into a frenzy, however the Ops run is probably going to be one of the colder, snowier members of the ensembles like its 06Z polar opposite from this morning. 

[95 Degrees]

GFS12Z very reminiscent of Feburary 2nd 2009 & December 1st/2nd 2010, huge upgrade for something just a week away. the flip flopping between runs makes it hard to believe though, it'll be a miracle if it's still there on tomorrow's 0z

 

[Marko1690]

Does anyone think it will get over to Ireland?

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Not there yet are we? 48 hours and we should be?

I think I’m going to give it to tomorrow . 

I’d like to see the limpet shortwave sent packing within T96hrs , as in absolutely no chance of phasing with any upstream energy .

Its looking very encouraging so far. I prefer the GFS solution in terms of margin for error , the UKMO still looks a bit iffy but moving in the right direction .

[radiohead]

12Z GEM

[sheikhy]

My god the control is following the op!!!but isnt that what it normally does anyway?!

[MJB]

Control behaving itself 

[MR_E]

12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

A day later and the gaps are filled

South West Wales/England seem to miss out on the fun here unfortunately

[Djdazzle]

I'm getting more interested now.

Cold is pretty much a given. Deep cold and lots of snow - I'd go with 60% chance now. No higher because we've been here many times before, and been burnt!

[Griff]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I think I’m going to give it to tomorrow . 

I’d like to see the limpet shortwave sent packing within T96hrs , as in absolutely no chance of phasing with any upstream energy .

Its looking very encouraging so far. I prefer the GFS solution in terms of margin for error , the UKMO still looks a bit iffy but moving in the right direction .

Parallel being a bit stubborn, if that means anything at all

[IDO]

Control flipped back with the gfs, and the mean remains solid at d6:

mean>

control>mean>

[goosey007]

Gem has the deep cold further north ......and showing a slider low .bringing snow from the west...it is the GEM  though