Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[MJB]

Much slower getting the Easterlies in 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

Much slower getting the Easterlies in 

They are still going to come by 132, it's just moved a little to ECM, a half way house between the 00z ecm an GFS would be epic

[frosty ground]

Atlantic gonna break east?

[MJB]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

They are still going to come by 132, it's just moved a little to ECM, a half way house between the 00z ecm an GFS would be epic

Indeed but slowly , but still looks good 

[tight isobar]

The iberian height \eastern euro rises playing havoc once AGAIN...this is not permitting lp drop nor clearance as rapid...it'll unfold..but again a pain in the proverbials ...they are!!!!

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

Indeed but slowly , but still looks good 

Let us hope and in some sense I expect that when short ensembles come out that the dark green line is above the pack from the 4th

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Atlantic gonna break east?

Yes the Atlantic is going to get much closer to the UK,

Artic High has pulled north slightly therefore the easterly has no omph at this point, cold air slowly sinking south but will it meet the Atlantic which will slide?

[sheikhy]

Hmm gfs 06z playin up!!!!icon looks the same at 120 hours!!!not a good start to the 06zs!

[SLEETY]

will be ok but just taking its time.Isnt the 06z always the worst performing model or someting.

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The iberian height \eastern euro rises playing havoc once AGAIN...this is not permitting lp drop nor clearance as rapid...it'll unfold..but again a pain in the proverbials ...they are!!!!

What Iberian heights? 

[Battleground Snow]

It's fine by 132, and the heights  are stronger to the north, which will probably draw in an even stronger easterly later in the run.

[offerman]

17 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Météociel propose le modèle UKMO à maille moyenne (1.25 degrés) jusqu'à 144h. Cartes de prévision des précipitations, du vent, des températures à tous les niveaux

Depending on what browser you use, you can right click and there should be a 'Translate to English' option.

Okay thanks For that so why does UKMO( use a French site for their charts ) was it due to money cheaper option to go like a farm out type ? 
just to doublecheck UKMO

stands for United Kingdom Met office is that correct .

 

I thought they had their own super computers that can generate charts and everything like that I know they get good satellite images and use glosea 

so was just curious why they used to French 

. Thank you 

[tight isobar]

Clear issues here !!!

[frosty ground]

Here comes the warm sector for the South East., Frozen solid in Scotland thou, and the Atlantic is sliding by.

[sheikhy]

Big big problems we got guys on this 06z!!!!all of a sudden we gona want ecm or ukmo to be correct!!!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, offerman said:

Okay thanks For that so why does UKMO( use a French site for their charts ) was it due to money cheaper option to go like a farm out type ? 
just to doublecheck UKMO

stands for United Kingdom Met office is that correct .

 

I thought they had their own super computers that can generate charts and everything like that I know they get good satellite images and use glosea 

so was just curious why they used to French 

. Thank you 

They do not use a French site.

The French site just happens to show the model data (along with all of the other free models used in Europe).

Perhaps email the Meto and ask them why they do not host the model on their own site.

[frosty ground]

Mild sector is being forced out of the equation, the cold uppers still sinking slowly south and where the two meet snow will be plentiful.

[jayb1989]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Here comes the warm sector for the South East., Frozen solid in Scotland thou, and the Atlantic is sliding by.

Would be quite toasty in the South East.. drawing in air from the Med.

[Yarmy]

Just now, offerman said:

Okay thanks For that so why does UKMO( use a French site for their charts ) was it due to money cheaper option to go like a farm out type ? 
just to doublecheck UKMO

stands for United Kingdom Met office is that correct .

 

I thought they had their own super computers that can generate charts and everything like that I know they get good satellite images and use glosea 

so was just curious why they used to French 

. Thank you 

You've got it the wrong way round. UKMO isn't using Meteociel, Meteociel is downloading and publishing UKMO data.

[Geordiesnow]

The warmth looks so impressive in the med, might be record breaking temperatures perhaps? 

Decent GFS run in respect it still shows the easterlies but the risk is there if the low faffs on and delays the cold. Such fine margins it really is. 

[Captain Shortwave]

The biggest issue with the GfS 06z is a few hundred mile eastwards correction of that trough to our east. It allows the ridge over SE Europe to exert greater influence. Previous runs have the low centred over western Russia but the trough extended into Finland and Sweden. It should be fine but it puts the boundary much closer to the south/south east of the U.K. and dilutes the cold a little.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Big big problems we got guys on this 06z!!!!all of a sudden we gona want ecm or ukmo to be correct!!!!

Big problems?


Just a variation and a slight delay, bit more for the south east but its coming..

Looks at that high over Greenland., Winds could back north westerly at some point

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Big big problems we got guys on this 06z!!!!all of a sudden we gona want ecm or ukmo to be correct!!!!

the GFS seems fine so far, albeit a slightly slower burner (or freezer - whichever way you look at it).

I'll reserve full judgement until a bit later in the sequence - I guess this is the problem with providing excessively dramatic commentary in real time as the run is emerging.

[tight isobar]

To calm the nerves it's the 6z gfs notorious for being=finding the most notable route of sequence for such rises...I'm confident the European \iberian points are being over emphasised here........

Edited February 1, 2021 by tight isobar

[KTtom]

That low needs to sod off sharply or we'll have to put up with the day 10 wise cracks all afternoon!