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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Quick summary,

GFS cold and snowy by 144

Para cold and snowy by 144

Ukmo cold and snowy by 144

Gem cold and snowy by 156

ECM cold and VERY snowy by 156.

 

Is it going to snow then ? 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Quick summary,

GFS cold and snowy by 144

Para cold and snowy by 144

Ukmo cold and snowy by 144

Gem cold and snowy by 156

ECM cold and VERY snowy by 156.

 

But will it snow in my backyard in North West Kent

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
Just now, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Can we finally say we have cross model agreement for the first time this winter ?

Don’t jinx it 

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Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
1 minute ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Can we finally say we have cross model agreement for the first time this winter ?

Ish. Now we need to see consistency but good steps this morning 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

I think the ecm will sink the low a lot quicker by 120-144 in future outputs. By Wednesday it will be a non feature....hopefully. 

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Posted
  • Location: Market Rasen
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Fog Thunderstorms
  • Location: Market Rasen

Very good steps going forward this morning but we need to see consistency after all it’s the uk and if something can throw a spanner in the works it will !

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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
10 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Is it going to snow then ? 

 

That's what the models are currently saying. It doesn't mean it will. Still time for a backtrack. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
24 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Uppers aren’t anything special at 144 on the ECM though or am I missing something?

26E70706-EE9A-4637-A4F7-9D9939FCC8A0.gif

Yes, they were always going to be very low come 168!

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Even something for the west later on, note the uppers are still cold after the first push...classic battleground scenario..

 

ECMOPEU00_216_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
3 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

I think the ecm will sink the low a lot quicker by 120-144 in future outputs. By Wednesday it will be a non feature....hopefully. 

I agree with you as its the last to join the party 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

What a ride! The ECM finally sees the light and begins to sink the trough allowing for a potentially very snowy scene to set up over the UK! 
 

They said it couldn’t be done but I’m starting to think it could be. 

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