Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[That ECM]

Superb.

[Kentspur]

8 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Some might call me picky but I don't like gfs 0z so much as I live on the south coast. The cold blast hardly lasts a day before milder med air starts mixing in. 

Its an absolute snow fest for the snowstarved surely you can't knock this run fella, 20cms yes please! 2-3 days of continuous snow reminds me of 2010!

Edited February 1, 2021 by Kentspur

[Battleground Snow]

The gem has improved on its 12z run  and I think it will be superb by 168, but it's  not as good as the GFS and ukmo early on, we still need to remain cautions. We are not there yet.

 

[Kentspur]

10 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Some might call me picky but I don't like gfs 0z so much as I live on the south coast. The cold blast hardly lasts a day before milder med air starts mixing in. 

-12c uppers clinging on to Dover but the highs slipping SE 10/02

[Daniel]

3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Its an absolute snow fest for the snowstarved surely you can't knock this run fella, 20cms yes please! 2-3 days of continuous snow reminds me of 2010!

Med air was starting to mix in that's all then just in time the wind turns more favourable and puts us into the freezer. This run might even beat 18z in terms of how long the proper cold air sticks around. Brilliant run! 

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Its an absolute snow fest for the snowstarved surely you can't knock this run fella, 20cms yes please! 2-3 days of continuous snow reminds me of 2010!

Really rooting for you guys down there and also the south coast, I've been very fortunate with 3 decent falls in the Midlands so far

[Continental Climate]

5 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

-12c uppers clinging on to Dover but the highs slipping SE 10/02

Hopefully a freezing fog high to preserve our 6 inches of powder snow on the ground. We can wish can't we. 

[Summerstorm]

11 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The gem has improved on its 12z run  and I think it will be superb by 168, but it's  not as good as the GFS and ukmo early on, we still need to remain cautions. We are not there yet.

 

The most important part is that it connects the Atlantic Ridge to the Arctic High and introduces the blocking. 

This then eventually forces the low south and by 162/168 we are into the cooler air. 

Interestingly the GEM seems pretty interested in a Greenland High and looks to throw in a slider at Day 8. 

I'd be happy with both evolutions although that slider looks to be heading south of the UK on the GEM. 

On the other hand that GFS run looks very unstable and reeks of troughs a plenty hopefully bringing more organised areas of snow for more Central and West areas. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Summerstorm

[Battleground Snow]

Control and mean definitely back the OP at 132

[Daniel]

Anouther upgrade on the mean gets the uppers down to -9 now in London 

[Ali1977]

-10c mean into the East of the U.K. by next Sunday, any moisture will be snow!!! I think the cold is nailed, now we just need to monitor snow events within it.

This freeze looks like lasting around 5 days on the Op, pretty good and when these freezes arrive they often prove hard to get rid of!!

[Battleground Snow]

Coventry hits -10 on the mean

I've also added Manchester so Feb can marvel at the clustering

P9 can get lost on that chart

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Coventry hits -10 on the mean

I've also added Manchester so Feb can marvel at the clustering

 

Yes a good few -12c, while i dont expect much ppn here, the fact that -12c is as far West as Manchester, that really bodes well for Dumpings further E and possibly even the SE.

[Battleground Snow]

No complaints about the para at 144.

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 5 - It all feels rather academic though given the differences early on.

GFS

Quickly sinks the low south to allow a strong ENE wind through the U.K. The warm front to the south gets a little further north to allow persistent snow into the south.

GFS(P)

 

Like it’s older brother, the low sinks southwards into Iberia to allow a very cold ENE wind to establish over the weekend.

UKMO

 

The low on this model tracks east through the U.K. but manages to track south enough to allow cold air to properly cut back across the U.K. with low pressure tending to set up over the Low Countries.

GEM

 

Low pressure over the UK, this pulls away slowly as cold air and lower heights from the east push into the U.K. establishing a cold cyclonic easterly with low pressure from the Atlantic travelling south of the U.K.

So the GFS holds firm, the other two generally keep to their own ideas but also tend to show more robust blocking to the north to allow easterly winds to establish a little later.

 

[DEYS(Kent)]

Para GFS a little different this morning. Has HP building over the UK a week today and easterly feed getting cut off..A variation of a theme and waaay too far out to be concerned about..

[KTtom]

Ecm already far better with the placement of the low at 96hrs than yesterdays horror show, pretty much the same as gfs. Ukmo the odd one out with it tracking in the north sea.

 

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo v ECM at 120.

Expecting a good 144

 

[Continental Climate]

ECM much better than yesterday. The low is tracking much better. Look at that epic Arctic blocking. How can we avoid some deep cold with this profile. I'm sure the UK will manage

[mulzy]

ECM day 5 is better but the limpet low is takes ages to clear but looks like it is getting there.  We need a bit of luck on the phasing of the two Atlantic lows.  

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM 0z T144 is a stonker.

[Mr snowman 2018]

Uppers aren’t anything special at 144 on the ECM though or am I missing something?

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Uppers aren’t anything special at 144 on the ECM though or am I missing something?

Wait for the next frame, but yes ukmo and GFS is colder by this stage

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Uppers aren’t anything special at 144 on the ECM though or am I missing something?

No not missing anything at all.  Though improved the ECM is still the poorest solution at day 6.  Limpet low still has not cleared!!

[KTtom]

Its laughable, best overall synoptic pattern of the winter, and the ecm refuses to clear the low from the UK!!

'Stonking' for Scotland and the far north at this stage.