Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[pinball wizard]

3 minutes ago, MR_E said:

Is there potential in these models of a historic cold spell? Something in line with some of the famous winters of past?

Potential yes, probable no. It's one run, we need to see this pattern repeating on future GFS runs and on others eg UKMO and ECM. If its replicating on other runs tomorrow then great, but long way to go yet. Personally I'll wait for the low on tues/weds to clear and see what is being modelled then. It's a good start and obviously great to look at but I'd not be getting too carried away just yet.

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs//p at day ten,reload from the N/NE,...

 

[Mark wheeler]

Navgem 18z A variation of the theme . 

[Timmytour]

I really apologize guys, but I feel I have to draw attention to something that may well scupper how things may look tomorrow and change the outlook dramatically.

My attention to the 12z and 18z runs, has been drawn to how much they depend upon what we generally expect to occur. not what actually happens.

But looking at today's runs it strikes me that, against all odds, a high pressure system is going to pursue the low pressure south and follow it so far south, it ends up leaving us with southwesterly winds!

I have come to this conclusion because I am convinced that, as well as managing Spurs, Mourinho also gives instructions to the models as regards how he wants the different pressure systems to play out,  but this will not be how they actually perform at the end of the day! 

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Timmytour

[Tom Jarvis]

6 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I really apologize guys, but I feel I have to draw attention to something that may well scupper how things may look tomorrow and change the outlook dramatically.

My attention to the 12z and 18z runs, has been drawn to how much they depend upon what we generally expect to occur. not what actually happens.

But looking at today's runs it strikes me that, against all odds, a high pressure system is going to pursue the low pressure south and follow it so far south, it ends up leaving us with southwesterly winds!

I have come to this conclusion because I am convinced that, as well as managing Spurs, Mourinho also gives instructions to the models as regards how he wants the different pressure systems to play out,  but this will not be how they actually perform at the end of the day! 

 

Timmy look at the jet stream it isn’t possible.

[londonblizzard]

Well very good full ensemble set for London.

Still some members going for no cold spell at all. My nerves will be settled once that 850 mean gets into that cluster under -10, and we're arguing about whether it's only going to be -8 or potentially 2018 BFTE levels of -13 to -15. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by londonblizzard

[jacke]

2 hours ago, Arrows1986 said:

10 days is FI but you're right..it won't come off likes this..let people have their fun though! 

 

When can we expect your analysis?

Would you like a pram for yourself if it does turn out something like this?

[Jason M]

1 hour ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Timmy look at the jet stream it isn’t possible.

Well that's put the curse on things!

[DJ Fart]

Unfortunately, although I don't post much in here, I've been a lurker for so many years that I've seen these levels of excitement way too many times to allow myself to dream at the moment.  I've seen it look nailed on as far as T96 and still go wrong, so until I see the white stuff piling up against my front door, I'll remain sceptical.  

Nice to see though, nonetheless!

[Battleground Snow]

Scandi trough extention doesn't align itself very well on the 00z icon and delays the cold by about 18 hours, all good by 162 though.

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Continental Climate]

Icon probably has more northern blocking than 18z but cold is very much delayed with not much reaching the UK until early next week.  Variation on a theme though not a bad start to the morning I suppose. 

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo looking good at 120, maybe a little bit improved on its placement of the low from yesterday afternoon.

EDit: 144 looks great. Cold is in, curious what the low in the Atlantic will do though

Edited February 1, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Kentspur]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo looking good at 120, maybe a little bit improved on its placement of the low from yesterday afternoon.

Agreed beautiful 120 chart its definitely counting down but were not home and dry until its within 72 id say!

[Continental Climate]

We have an easterly fully in place by Friday if not late Thursday. Could be snow for some on thur/Fri. Good stuff. 

[Kentspur]

Will that Atlantic low out west disrupt favourably after 144 to unleash the beast? Lovely blocking developing all through the Arctic to our Northwest!

Edited February 1, 2021 by Kentspur

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Will that Atlantic low out west disrupt after 144 to unleash the beast? 

I think it would go under and give a dumping to Ireland and the south west, but just speculation at that range

[Kentspur]

Slightly colder 850s in the North at 120 compared to GFS 18z... trends......

Edited February 1, 2021 by Kentspur

[Battleground Snow]

UKMO 850mb temps are much colder than yesterday's 12z run..

Edited February 1, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Battleground Snow]

Still prefer the Gfs at 144, a half way house would be awesome too. Good start to the day!

 

[Kentspur]

144 Snow right down from John O Groats to Hastings and Dover and those very cold uppers flooding south

[Kentspur]

The sea ice bridge Dover to Calais is back again on this run Sunday evening 7 days away!

[Continental Climate]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

144 Snow right down from John O Groats to Hastings and Dover and those very cold uppers flooding south

That's what we want to see nationwide snow. Everyone getting a dump of the good stuff. Even the scilly Isles!!

[Daniel]

Some might call me picky but I don't like gfs 0z so much as I live on the south coast. The cold blast hardly lasts a day before milder med air starts mixing in. 

[Daniel]

2 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Some might call me picky but I don't like gfs 0z so much as I live on the south coast. The cold blast hardly lasts a day before milder med air starts mixing in. 

Ha! As I post this the wind direction begins to turn more favourable. Fine margins! 

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Some might call me picky but I don't like gfs 0z so much as I live on the south coast. The cold blast hardly lasts a day before milder med air starts mixing in. 

Don't worry it's only for a few hours and then cold comes roaring back into the south coast... Wouldn't worry about placement of the 850mb temps until 48 hours out