Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Captain Shortwave]

Just noting the GEFs, most, if not all of the coldest members around day 7 manage to develop higher pressure towards Scandinavia around that point and as such produce a cleaner easterly flow. Some of them come with very strong winds. Not quite a beasterly, but very close. So much to resolve though at this point.

Funnily enough the parallel run might not end up to far from those coldest ensembles at that point.

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Tim Bland]

-10 uppers and snow showers next Sunday on the GFSp. Surely the ECM has to back this easterly tomorrow!

[Ice Day]

The short GEFS are very very nice (this is for my location) - I even spy a -16!

As would be expected, even better for the north east of England - cold in much earlier.

Much to change, but wouldn't it be great for an event that encompasses the whole country!

 

[Matt H]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

-10 uppers and snow showers next Sunday on the GFSp. Surely the ECM has to back this easterly tomorrow!

Trying not to get ahead of myself but the idea of being able to go for a long walk next weekend in heavy snow showers would honestly be perfect. Fantastic runs this evening and I hope the ECM finally jumps on board tomorrow morning.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Case of spot the difference there, Si!  

What has stuck me about this upcoming spell of weather, which admittedly hasn’t happened yet, let’s not forget that, is it isn’t just a Greenland ridge or a scandi high that is being progged, it is a full-on cross polar flow, complete slice and dice of the trop vortex.  This doesn’t happen very often and we still need to play to luck that we’re on the right side of it but it is awesome synoptics being shown, so interesting. 

Yes it looks good doesn't it Mike and match the N blocking on the anomalies, I am itching to get carried away but that ECM back in 2012 i think burnt my keyboard fingers and i couldn't type for a while as i was so despondent ,..but chin up,great forum tonight and charts and i always like chatting and reading and also posting in here of course,we are on the very cusp of something special now

i feel just a tad emotional today as you all know but i am happy at the same time

cheers all for your support

[Tim Bland]

On Right Move looking at house prices in Aberdeen

[MJB]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

-10 uppers and snow showers next Sunday on the GFSp. Surely the ECM has to back this easterly tomorrow!

You have to say GFS has promoted these Easterlies for a while , I think ECM will slowly come around to them by Tuesday at the latest 

[ICE COLD]

A closer look at the 850s on the gfs op and -13 850s wide spread . Love these charts . 

 

Edit - these are at around day 6.5 yes day 6.5 

Edited January 31, 2021 by ICE COLD

[Tim Bland]

Just now, MJB said:

You have to say GFS has promoted these Easterlies for a while , I think ECM will slowly come around to them by Tuesday at the latest 

Looking at the ensembles I have to agree. I really can’t see how the ECM will be able to keep avoiding it! 

[Mike Poole]

GFS // at T168, not convinced about this run, it has got horribly messy in the middle!  Nonetheless, the route for cold to the UK remains open, even if it has to contend with Operation Brock:

[Allseasons-Si]

Latest control run,...WOW.

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

A closer look at the 850s on the gfs op and -13 850s wide spread . Love these charts . 

Absolutely banging graphics✌

[Geordiesnow]

5 minutes ago, MJB said:

You have to say GFS has promoted these Easterlies for a while , I think ECM will slowly come around to them by Tuesday at the latest 

Do bear in mind the ECM is plausible with respect to the low sticking around over the UK but its a classic situation of using Nick Sussex's quote of if the first part of the run is wrong, the rest of the run will be and the GFS is just the same.

Of course even if the ECM is nearer the mark, there is snow opportunities in there and with very strong Arctic heights, and a PV finally over Scandinavia, significant cold can't be ruled out. 

And one last thing, not a sodding Russian high in sight, proper winter charts we are seeing. 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Geordiesnow

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, DEYS(Kent) said:

Wrong thread but is this a recent forecast?

Definitely not...on the basis that ECM hasn’t shown that ...yet.  .hopefully in the next few days, when ECM shows it..they will! 

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

A closer look at the 850s on the gfs op and -13 850s wide spread . Love these charts . 

#I'm blue dabble dee! dabble daa!#

[SLEETY]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

A closer look at the 850s on the gfs op and -13 850s wide spread . Love these charts . 

Some serious wind-chill there,in snow showers piling in from strong Easterly winds

[Griff]

Op vs // 180 for fun

[Valleyboy]

56 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

The 18z is stuff of dreams❄!!look at that 174 hour chart!!!

A complete dream for cold fans, unfortunately.  There is no way we will get an easterly and accompanying uppers that will be acceptable to coldies, without a Scandi high in place.  The Synoptics being shown are incorrect.  This will unravel in the coming days.  There is a chance of a pressure rise to the northeast, and this Is what we should be looking for during the coming week, for the real deal to happen.

[Cloud 10]

3 minutes ago, DEYS(Kent) said:

Wrong thread but is this a recent forecast?

 

Not a recent forecast,but could be feasible the way things are going.

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS // at T168, not convinced about this run, it has got horribly messy in the middle!  Nonetheless, the route for cold to the UK remains open, even if it has to contend with Operation Brock:

It's opening up Mike where i have drawn the black circle,should be good from here,...180.

[kold weather]

18 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Just taking stock a moment. How often do you see a low adjusted 8 mb weaker from one run to the next... at only 4 days range?

Monumental shift but could it be a fluctuation? Tomorrow really should tell us.

Earlier I posted the ECM and GFS charts from the 00z Wednesday run for todays 00z run.

96hrs.

The ECM was off by 17mbs, the GFS off by 10mbs. They also both were way off on the shape of the LP as well. Again just 96hrs out.

This seems like the sort of set-up that the models are struggling with. They are constantly trying to form balls of LP but the subtle nature of the flow is shearing the LPs ESE quite often at the moment and the mpdels struggle big time with this.

 

[Bermuda High]

4 hours ago, MR_E said:

Does anyone remember how some previous cold spells such as 2018, 2010 etc were reflected in the models? Were they consistent across the board at this stage or were there inconsistencies as there are now?

 

Separately, how does what the cold models now are showing compare to some of the famous cold spells from previous years 1987, 60s etc?

2018 BTFE 1 and 2,both were clean and all models 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Bermuda High

[snowbob]

The ECM is just doing its tantrum thing unless we get enough posts saying we are wrong and that we know your sensitive babe and I’m sorry there is not a chance it’s going to back down

you were right ECM I’m sorry

(yep coming babe )

lol

[WorldExplore]

GFS 18z  -->> R.I.P Atlantic, R.I.P Greeny Vortex,,, Sypnotically pleasuring .

❄ Long may it continue.

[MR_E]

Is there potential in these models of a historic cold spell? Something in line with some of the famous winters of past?