Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[kold weather]

Much closer to some sort of consensus tonight.

The evolutionary differences between UKMO/GEM/ECM are actually relatively minor. Of course the one difference between the GEM and the ECM is the one that allows a much better push of cold across the UK.

However look at ECM and GEM at 216hrs.

They are actually evolving almost identically, just one shoves the cold air just that bit further south.

Edited January 31, 2021 by kold weather

[MJB]

D10 from ECM .............what a change 

[Purga]

Consistent it ain't!! ECM

0z 240hrs                                                     12z 240hrs

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think the ECM is having a meltdown . The changes between runs are laughable . Hopefully it might pick an evolution and stick with it before I’m pushing my zimmer frame around ! 

 

Undoubtedly.

Here is the track of the low in 24h steps from 96h through to 192h - physics!

 

[icykev]

This low looks like it will definitely head se this time, i can wait! Waited long enough now. ECM looks alot better to me. Small steps, bigger picture 

Edited January 31, 2021 by icykev
Not going to get this far anyway without changes for the good beforehand

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Yes ECM!

In cricketing terms, this one’s a Guzzunder!

If you don’t like it, have 12 hours later from the 0z instead

The cricket analogy for that one would be a total collapse, usually by England. 

All in all we’re still clueless really with this horrid trough. so many of us want that long fetch unstable easterly, and that could still happen, but this time last year we were facing the true abyss (last years ECM 192 for reference, the reality was worse)

whereas this time literally anything could happen, so much to talk about. It’s a very interesting, exciting period of model watching. This day 9 ECM is a great example...has more snow potential than most years: if it slides more cold to come... if it clashes then its big snow for many... 

 

Ps Whatever you do... don’t look at the Arpege!

 

It doesn't look too bad - the low at 114 looks like it will slip ssw allowing an easterly to develop.

[Froze were the Days]

I know I'm stating the absolute obvious here but the ecm is a country mile different than the consistent runs the GFS is putting out but not so far different from the UKMO so maybe this 12z is sniffing out the rough evolution we could be looking at but it does seem like FI is around D4-5.

Saying this the Big Boys Marco P, Hammond and Hugo all seem pretty certain we're looking at weather coming from our east/north east by the weekend...and that's been put out on tweets!

[Valleyboy]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent EC...

Could be a snow storm at day 10 with a big low swinging up into  cold uppers...

All marginal, similar to what we have today, weather wise.  Incoming rain with snow on elevation.  The uppers are not cold enough, as shown on the charts.  Could change closer to the time, that’s if 10 day charts ever become reality.

[Tim Bland]

JFF ECM with the slider low, further south than earlier run...

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Saying this the Big Boys Marco P, Hammond and Hugo all seem pretty certain we're looking at weather coming from our east/north east by the weekend...and that's been put out on tweets!

Must be true then

Edit, but seriously it probably is coming from the east or northeast, it is just for a small island like ours the details do matter and that is why the conversation we’ve just had over the last 10 pages or so matters.

Edited January 31, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Would be ECM 0z most likely.

That's exactly what I thought 

[That ECM]

Evening all. Missed the 12z’s coming out but just managed a quick catch up. Over 220 posts since I last looked so sorry if this has been covered. 
 

two points. The gefs ecm compared to this morning. on we go.

[swilliam]

26 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Agreed.. I’m constantly surprised with ECM not helped by the 24 jumps I guess..

I mean 192 could boom age if the low over us goes south east or darn right grim if the lows to our south west merge.

simply no idea

You should try the Metdesk site then - it comes out in 3 hour steps

https://wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf&region=uk&chart=overview,accprecip,850temp,2mtemp&run=12&step=003&plottype=ens&lat=52.083&lon=-1.017&skewtstep=0

[Tim Bland]

Who want to bet a virtual pint the ECM is still on the warm side of the ensembles and it still has plenty of scope for adjustments towards GFS? I bet the above slider just grazes the south west on the 00z...

[Frosty.]

Say what you like..I think this is a very interesting spell ahead of us!......The ECM is showing some wild swings, the 0z day 10 was clearly a massive mild outlier!!!...I think the truth is there’s plenty of wintery potential during the coming weeks! ️ 

 

[nick sussex]

Well that was fun ! 

I suppose we should take this small win and run with it . The ECM has improved which is a huge relief .

Regardless of its current performance we do need that to at least be moving in the right direction .

 

 

[MR_E]

Does anyone remember how some previous cold spells such as 2018, 2010 etc were reflected in the models? Were they consistent across the board at this stage or were there inconsistencies as there are now?

 

Separately, how does what the cold models now are showing compare to some of the famous cold spells from previous years 1987, 60s etc?

[snowice]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Well that was fun ! 

I suppose we should take this small win and run with it . The ECM has improved which is a huge relief .

Regardless of its current performance we do need that to at least be moving in the right direction .

 

 

Can't wait for the sunday pub run

[chris55]

EC 192 a good place to be at day 8, a much better Operational run this evening. 

Still a long way to go in getting that very very cold air over the UK but not a bad set of runs tonight IMO.

With a NH profile like this, the odds are in our favour.

[Penrith Snow]

10 minutes ago, Purga said:

Consistent it ain't!! ECM

0z 240hrs                                                     12z 240hrs

I asked the Cat to put his paw on the correct ECM solution, he chose the cold one, thats good enough for me.

Not very scientific?

Better than the ECM Computer Model Output!

Alfie says 'What Do You Mean No Cold Spell'?

[Winter Hill]

Just now, MR_E said:

Does anyone remember how some previous cold spells such as 2018, 2010 etc were reflected in the models? Were they consistent across the board at this stage or were there inconsistencies as there are now?

 

Separately, how does what the cold models now are showing compare to some of the famous cold spells from previous years 1987, 60s etc?

GFS was very consistent with the 2010 cold outbreak. 
 

2018, the models were a bit like now if I remember correctly 

[northwestsnow]

The only downside is it now seems likely those south of the border are unlikely to see the cold uppers until 144...

Not as quick as I would like but let's hope we can can count down without  too many dramas!!

Edited January 31, 2021 by northwestsnow

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, swilliam said:

You should try the Metdesk site then - it comes out in 3 hour steps

https://wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf&region=uk&chart=overview,accprecip,850temp,2mtemp&run=12&step=003&plottype=ens&lat=52.083&lon=-1.017&skewtstep=0

Bookmarked and thank you and I’m sure others will be doing the same.. I hope metdesk have put 50p in the meter for a Monday morning rush

[Cold Winter Night]

Up to 144h EC Op was absolutely an improvement. I wonder where it sits in its ensemble. If the ensemble resembles the one from this morning, the Op will be more in line with the average, I think. But perhaps the ensemble is better and the Op is still at the milder end, we will know soon.
Past 144 h EC is still trying out all sorts of shenanigans, but the theme is colder than its previous runs.

The differences between the models at just 120h are still quite big in the key areas (Labrador/West Atlantic and along the line Iberia-Norway).
GFS, UKMO and EC at 120h:

I stick to drawing the FI line right there and look at overall similarities in the later timeframes.

What stands out to me: Continued interest in either keeping, building or rebuilding heights to the North.
That's all I need to know for now.

 

 

 

[londonblizzard]

10 minutes ago, MR_E said:

Does anyone remember how some previous cold spells such as 2018, 2010 etc were reflected in the models? Were they consistent across the board at this stage or were there inconsistencies as there are now?

 

Separately, how does what the cold models now are showing compare to some of the famous cold spells from previous years 1987, 60s etc?

My memory of the lead up to the 2018 beast from the east was that the GFS was the latest to latch on to it (with ECM etc showing it first). Almost showing zero cold spell, and then over the course of 2 runs suddenly showing -15 uppers. I want someone to correct me if i'm wrong about this though?

Edit: I think what i'm talking about played out on the prior weekend of the 24th feb. Then from this point onwards it was pretty consistent including cross model.

Edited January 31, 2021 by londonblizzard