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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

image.thumb.png.de1624378fcc38bf16d8478a3102556b.pngimage.thumb.png.801c0a65c0607278de03696ab6cafa29.pngimage.thumb.png.5de863b7c2cb1a7c7adec1bad9000907.png 

Try spinning, that's a good trick...

The stronger circulation has drawn in a little more cold air than the UKMO 12z managed for Saturday. Being Arctic maritime, that should be plenty cold enough for snow UK-wide - though precipitation may be a bit scarce in the south. Funny how things go sometimes.

This run has been so close to UKMO so far but yeah, it was a close call on whether the cold pool would wrap into the UK low or engage with the Atlantic one.

I think if we do go down this sort of route, it's encouraging that a slower Atlantic trough reduces the risk of the cold air engaging with it, as slowing the Atlantic has been one of the trends of the past month. 

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

dosen't look bad, but no easterly, right we'll see GFS gradually move towards EC tomorrow, likely on the 00Z, even on 18Z tonight

ECM0-144.GIF?31-0

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

ECM is an improvement on last run and a slight step towards GFS, low is further south and stretching south east not traveling north like it was. Expect GFs later to step towards ECM and tomorrow ECM step towards GFS and then they will meet in the middle..see below this run Vs last 

31934CE8-C47B-4DD9-A024-A9295B274CAB.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Absolutely, touch and go!

T144 and it is still not certain, looks messy though:

790A281E-9054-43BC-9622-CF86B6AE0E08.thumb.png.d97b632c9594fcef1c58e5c4d6eadfda.png

Looks like the Canadian daughter vortex is a baby in a pram. Maybe a reminder for anyone to not throw anything out of it

Edited by Phil Blake
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Absolutely, touch and go!

T144 and it is still not certain, looks messy though:

790A281E-9054-43BC-9622-CF86B6AE0E08.thumb.png.d97b632c9594fcef1c58e5c4d6eadfda.png

That was a relief ! The best we can hope for now is for the upstream low to disrupt se and the limpet low over the UK to bxgger off se at day 7. Allowing some ridging to extend sw . 

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Just now, MJB said:

image.thumb.png.f9bc831e4f846d89d3ea6bbcd6f9eb00.png

Any idea why that LP just doesn't move SE ?

It’s better at 144 than this morning 168... 12 hour not withstanding you can see the artic heights applying forcing and the low does move a little south east between 120 and 144

168 could be a beaut if the low continues south east like other models have down around this timeframe 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, MJB said:

image.thumb.png.f9bc831e4f846d89d3ea6bbcd6f9eb00.png

Any idea why that LP just doesn't move SE ?

It probably will now, as it shouldn’t phase with the upstream one.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

The ECM. Actually gets the cold IMBY quicker than the GFS easterly scenario ?‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: SE Kent
  • Location: SE Kent
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM 144hrs:

Goodbye easterly, it was nice to know you!

Hello slider and battleground, nice to see you!

Different solution compared to the GFS, but we can work with that still, even if it does struggle to get any easterly in from that position.

Easterly still favourite. Longevity and depth of cold is still up for grabs.,.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Last sunday 24th  ECM+ 144 was mild and showing 10c By Tuesday it was showing 4,5c it has been only 3c here all day so goes to show you 96 to 120 is FI in this setup.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Well we have separation at ECM 144 and disruption as the Atlantic low is pushed back slightly between 120 and 144 as heights build in between.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

No phasing +fortunately+ the shaping is a little odd though in our part...but last frames could prove decent viewing..as the easterly is lining up @144..@ecm

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

ECM 144 hrs nice NH profile,can only get colder from there.

 

ECH1-144.thumb.png.56997152624c41ec1ad6f345841ddecb.png

Looking at it in NH view, surely that is a big upgrade in terms of the N Atlantic and Arctic. I'd expect the rest of the run to be quite cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street
1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

ECM 144 hrs nice NH profile,can only get colder from there.

 

ECH1-144.thumb.png.56997152624c41ec1ad6f345841ddecb.png

Yep if that low moves ese itll be great

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The 12z ECM is definitely got some potential at 144hrs, though its clearly worlds apart from what the 12z GFS is showing.

Still its getting increasingly clear that the models are converging on a middle ground somewhere between the doomsday 00z ECM/12z GEM and the very gungho GFS easterlies.

The key thing is the ECM does actually allow the cold to reach the south, even if its a little weak, it then allows any sliders to have more than a chance to bring the goods should they get going.

Amazing to see the whole part of our hemisphere spin as well between 120-144hrs, one of the more bizarre evolution but its been consistent with that now for 3 runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
3 minutes ago, MJB said:

image.thumb.png.f9bc831e4f846d89d3ea6bbcd6f9eb00.png

Any idea why that LP just doesn't move SE ?

Iberian high pressure pal. Would love to see it go se towards Italy . . .

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